The most anticipated college football season is fast approaching, as well as a very unusual time in the coaching hiring cycle, with just a few months, if not weeks, remaining until the final so-called “silly season” before college sports transitions to a revenue-sharing model with players.
Questions arise: Will revenue sharing impact firing decisions and future coaching contracts?
Over the past three hiring cycles, universities have agreed to pay roughly $300 million to fired head coaches, setting a record last year with a $132 million buyout, with more than half of that going to one person: Jimbo Fisher ($76 million).
Consider this: Under the new model, $300 million could cover the rosters of up to 20 college football teams for at least one year.
For the new College Football Playoff viewer’s guide, click here. (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
If the House antitrust settlement passes, schools would be allowed to distribute up to $22 million to players next fall in quasi-salary cap increases each year — another expense for athletic departments already financially strained by excessive spending on facilities, coaching contracts and other items.
There are already signs of cuts: At Texas A&M, for example, some athletes’ contracts include clauses that require them to be reevaluated if revenue-sharing begins.
Several coaching agents and administrators said they expect to see fewer universities agreeing to long, guaranteed contracts with big, 10-year buyouts, like Fisher’s deal and those signed by Louisiana State’s Brian Kelly and USC’s Lincoln Riley.
As for the silly season, management might give their guys more freedom.
“If you knew there was a revenue share of $15 to $20 million coming, would you pay the buyout money and then pay the buyout money of another coach?,” one agent asked. “Would you do that outside of the Big Ten or SEC?”
We may find out more this year, with a slew of power-conference gigs on the way, at least one of which could set off a domino effect that ripples across the nation.
That job, of course, is in Florida.
“Florida is getting people leaving good jobs,” one agent said.
But there are still plenty of jobs that could open up this year. Take a look at this list, compiled through conversations with industry insiders.
hot
Billy Napier, Florida
Acquisition price: $25 million to $27 million
Gone are the days when a coach could automatically get a fourth-year season. Known as a patient program builder, Napier feels he’s leading the Gators in the right direction. But that may not matter. He’s entering the third year of a seven-year contract that pays him a salary of about $7 million. The buyout is hefty, but the Florida fan base is restless and Napier needs a strong performance (eight wins? nine wins?) to appease the hometown crowd. The schedule is a dreary one of top-25 teams, with a Georgia blitz in Jacksonville, a final blitz against Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. Phew.
Napier’s situation in Gainesville has become even more intriguing with the resignation of the school’s president, Ben Sasse, last month. How will that affect Napier’s future, as well as that of athletic director Scott Stricklin, who hired Napier? Kent Fuchs will return to campus as interim president. He originally hired Stricklin in 2016.
Baylor’s Dave Aranda, Arkansas’ Sam Pittman and Florida’s Billy Napier are all in trouble heading into this season. (J’Kel Anderson/Yahoo Sports)
Dave Aranda, Baylor University
Acquisition price: *Estimated at $20-25 million
*Because Baylor University is a private university, personnel contracts are not publicly available.
Aranda led the Bears to a Big 12 championship just three years ago, but then went 6-7 and 3-9, and in his final season, athletic director Mack Rose almost fired him last December. Will he be able to take advantage of the bonus fifth season? A former defensive coordinator at LSU and Wisconsin known for his X’s and O’s skills, Aranda and the Bears have been successful in recruiting players, and the coach himself attributes that to new NIL resources from the school’s donors and local brand. In fact, Baylor University coaches practiced this month wearing shirts that read “WE PAY OUR PLAYERS.” The balanced 16-team Big 12 doesn’t have the toughest schedule. In fact, the toughest game for the Bears is a trip to Utah, which will be considered a non-conference game as previously scheduled.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Acquisition price: *$8 million to $12 million
*Pittman’s buyout is wide because he has an unusual buyout clause in his contract. If he is released with a winning percentage above 50%, he gets 75% of his remaining salary. If the winning percentage falls below that level, he gets 50% of his salary. He went 23-25 at Arkansas.
Pittman, a well-traveled offensive line coach, resurrected the program in his second year in 2021 with a 9-4 season and a 4-4 record in the SEC. It was one of the best stories in college football. Since then, the Razorbacks have won four of their last 12 SEC games. Pittman, who was on the verge of being fired last December, has an extra year to show improvement, as has Aranda. It may depend on his new offensive coordinator, Bobby Petrino. Petrino is a former Arkansas head coach who many believe could potentially replace Pittman and return to the helm. The Hogs’ SEC schedule is tough enough with Ole Miss, Texas and Louisiana State, but they also have a trip to Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma State in Week 2.
warm
Justin Wilcox, California
Purchase price: Approximately $15 million
Wilcox compiled a 36-43 record in seven seasons and led the Bears back to the postseason last year for the first time since 2019. He is highly regarded in the industry and has been mentioned as a candidate for the head coaching post at Oregon in the past. He also received a huge buyout, which is expensive for a school like UC, which has the largest athletic department debt in the country. UC’s financial woes will be further strained by its move to the ACC, which could cost millions of dollars on cross-country trips and partial conference allocations.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
Purchase price: *Estimated to be between $15 million and $17 million
*Because Vanderbilt is a private university, personnel contracts are not publicly available.
Lee, 42, is in his fourth season in Nashville and has nine wins so far. The Commodores bounced back to 5-7 in 2022, but went 2-10 last year. Like many small private schools in the FBS, Vanderbilt and its management must decide whether to invest in football before the new revenue-sharing model. Vanderbilt has shown some investment. The school is spending more than $300 million on a major renovation of its football stadium, its largest renovation in 40 years. Is Lee the right person to lead the program into the new revenue-sharing world? That’s a question that may be answered by the team’s performance this season, with teams like LSU, Tennessee, Alabama and Texas on the schedule.
Kalani Sitake, BYU
Purchase price: *Estimated at $8-12 million
*BYU is a private school, so personnel contracts are not publicly available.
It’s hard to imagine the Cougars parting ways with a guy who was one of their own and won 61 games in eight years. Sitake won 11 and 10 games in 2020-21 but fell to 5-7 last year in his first year in the Big 12. The schedule is unclear. BYU will face Big 12 preseason favorites Utah, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Arizona.
Other Power 4 seats heating up: Virginia (Tony Elliott), South Carolina (Shane Beamer), West Virginia (Neil Brown) and Pittsburgh (Pat Narducci).
Seats in the Group of Five are heating up: Charlotte (Biff Pogge), Marshall (Charles Huff), Rice (Mike Bloomgren), East Carolina (Mike Houston), Temple (Stan Drayton), Southern Miss (Will Hall), Louisiana (Michael DeSormeaux), Arkansas State (Batch Jones), Old Dominion (Ricky Rahne), Colorado State (Jay Norvell), Louisiana Tech (Sonny Cumby), Northern Illinois (Thomas Hammock), Philips University (Mike McIntyre) and Ball State (Mike New).