New Delhi:
In a prediction that received little attention, Yigal Karmon, a prominent counterterrorism expert and founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), predicted a violent Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, one month before it actually happened. His article, published on August 31, 2023, titled “Signs of Possible September-October War,” was one of the few open-source warnings to pinpoint a specific time for the attack.
On October 7, 2023, the Iranian-backed Palestinian group Hamas launched a devastating incursion into southern Israel, resulting in one of the country’s deadliest attacks in recent years. The violence left around 1,200 people dead and more than 250 abducted. The massacre shocked Israel and the world.
In response, Israel launched a series of attacks on the besieged Palestinian-controlled area of Gaza that have left more than 40,000 people, mostly civilians, dead.
“Recently, there have been growing indications that war with Israel may break out in September or October 2023. The trigger could be an escalation of violent clashes resulting in many casualties or the use of new weapons resulting in many deaths on the Israeli side, to which Israel would be unable to respond using conventional counterterrorism measures,” Calmon wrote in August 2023.
“Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah are keen on an all-out confrontation with Israel, but such a confrontation could arise due to an uncontrollable escalation on the ground or the use by either group of new and unusually lethal weapons,” he added.
His August prediction came in response to rising tensions on the Israeli border and Hezbollah’s growing territorial demands and challenges to Israeli sovereignty. In his analysis, Carmon warned that while neither Hamas nor Hezbollah appear to want all-out war, the volatile situation on the ground could easily escalate into a large-scale conflict.
“As they do every year, Jews are likely to visit Al-Aqsa settlement during the Jewish holidays in September and October. Spokesmen for Hamas and Hezbollah have stressed that this could lead to a regional war,” he wrote.
Calls for a ceasefire have had little success as the devastating regional conflict continues, and a series of meetings in Qatar between stakeholders from both sides have failed to produce any concrete solution.