IIt will be a study in contrasts of age, gender, race, temperament and policy, and it will also mark the first time in U.S. presidential history that a former trial prosecutor will debate alongside a convicted felon in a White House debate.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris served as a lawyer, district attorney and state attorney general in California, where her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal.
Just 75 days after Joe Biden’s abysmal performance against President Trump sparked a political earthquake that ultimately forced him to withdraw from the race for the White House, the two will face off in their first, and likely only, debate on Tuesday night in Philadelphia.
Few expect such a dramatic outcome this time around, but it represents one last golden opportunity for Trump to end Harris’s protracted honeymoon with the Democratic nominee, as she seeks to highlight her opponent’s glaring flaws in front of tens of millions of voters watching live on television.
“This will be the first time that Donald Trump will be actually cross-examined in front of the American people,” said Tara Setmeyer, former communications director for the Congressional Republican Party. “Kamala Harris’s background and experience as a prosecutor, attorney general and senator is not something that Trump should underestimate in this debate.”
This will be Trump’s seventh appearance in a national debate, making him the most experienced debater in U.S. presidential history. In his June showdown with Biden, Trump repeated a string of falsehoods that went largely unchallenged. Harris is expected to be a tougher opponent, potentially putting Trump on the defensive over facts, policy and post-2020 election actions.
Harris, 59, has not shied away from pursuing a career in law enforcement in her campaign so far. In a video from the recent Democratic National Convention in Chicago, she declared, “It’s our choice: prosecutor or felon.” In her party’s acceptance speech, Harris told cheering delegates, “Every day in court, I have stood proudly before my judge and recited five words: Kamala Harris, For the People.”
Harris has also touted her record of taking on predators and con artists, telling audiences across the country, “I know what a Donald Trump type looks like!” She used that experience to deliver a memorable cross-examination of Brett Kavanaugh during his Senate confirmation hearings in 2018 after then-President Trump nominated him to the Supreme Court.
But Harris is unlikely to directly pursue Trump’s conviction or the three other criminal cases that still dog him. At a rally in New Hampshire this week, when a member of the audience yelled “Put him in jail!” Harris responded, “Well, you know what? The courts will handle it, and we’ll handle it in November. How’s that?”
In May, Trump became the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a felony when a New York jury found him guilty on all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election by paying hush money to adult film performers. On Friday, Judge Juan Marchand postponed Trump’s sentencing until Nov. 26, past the Nov. 5 election.
A conviction would be a heavy burden for other debate candidates, but Trump has galvanized his supporters by repeatedly falsely claiming that this case and others involving election interference and misuse of classified information were trumped up and politically motivated. If the topic comes up on Tuesday, Trump is likely to portray himself as a martyr and remind viewers of his nearly assassination attempt in July.
The 90-minute contest, taking place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, will be moderated by ABC News anchors David Muir and Lindsey Davis, and, under rules agreed by both campaigns, will have no spectators and microphones will be muted except when the candidates are speaking.
The same rules appeared to work in Trump’s favor when he faced off against Biden in Atlanta in June. “Trump adapted well to no fans and cut microphones in Atlanta. Biden clearly did not,” said Aaron Cole, debate director at the University of Michigan.
“He’s never debated without an audience. The same goes for Harris. You don’t get feedback, you don’t know how things are going, so you just have to trust your own judgment. Does anyone have better media instincts than a reality TV host?”
Muting the microphone would not only save Trump himself (he interrupted Biden 71 times in the first presidential debate in 2020), but it might also prevent Harris from making sharp retorts like the “I’m talking” she uttered to Mike Pence in the vice presidential debate four years ago.
Harris and Trump, who have never met in person, are likely to take on the roles of boxer and fighter in Rocky Balboa town. Trump, 78, is not known for discipline, preparation or adherence to the truth. His debate performances, like his governing style, have usually been based on instinct rather than thoughtful analysis.
“You can never underestimate him because he’s so sporadic. Just when you think he’s on to something, he moves on to something else. It’s hard to keep up with him, so she has to pick her spots,” added Karl, who has attended multiple presidential debates.
“He’s always been known as a more effective counterpuncher. He may not launch the first blow or attack or argument sometimes, but if she becomes aggressive as a prosecutor and decides to treat him as such, he can be even more lethal in response.”
Trump has struggled to find a coherent and effective line of attack against Harris since she entered the race, accusing her of being too left-wing while suggesting she is to blame for Biden’s centrist policies, questioning her intellect and racial identity and struggling to remain consistent on the inflammatory issue of abortion rights.
Republicans will be hoping that Trump’s debate behavior will be more focused and that he will avoid overt sexism and racism. When Trump last faced off against female candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016, he was physically behind her at the debate and called her “the devil” and a “mean woman.”
“The Harris campaign was eager to have her microphone on because they see her as their biggest enemy, and that’s true. She has no focus,” said Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for Governance Studies at the University of Minnesota.
“He’s been an incredibly undisciplined candidate, especially at this level, and he’s been incredibly offensive to women and people of color, and I don’t see that changing. Already in this race, he’s said some pretty nasty things about Kamala Harris, and I expect to see more of that, and potentially Kamala Harris putting him on a pedestal in a way that provokes that kind of reaction.”
Ms. Harris enters the debate riding high: After the convention wrapped up on Aug. 22, her campaign announced that she had raised more than $500 million since entering the race. She is leading nationally by 3 percentage points, according to polling site 538, but the race is tight in some battleground states.
“Kamala Harris is a talented politician at the peak of her career,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg. “I think she’ll perform well in the debate, but based on her public performance so far, she’ll probably say something ugly and shocking that will do further damage to an already damaged campaign.”
But the vice president may come under pressure to explain her shifting positions on issues such as Medicare for All, fracking, plastic straws and decriminalizing illegal border crossings. She may also face questions about the Biden-Harris administration’s economic record, particularly inflation, forcing her to defend her boss and promise to turn a new page.
“What she’s put forward so far is either completely contradictory to her past record or, for the most part, isn’t really a good idea,” said Lanhee Chen, an American public policy fellow at the Hoover Institution, a think tank in Stanford, California. “If she can actually bring new ideas forward in this debate and give people food for thought, that’s a much better approach.”
But history shows that the debates are more about memorable moments than policies: Ronald Reagan’s “not again,” his taunts at Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush’s glance at his watch, Al Gore’s sigh, and Trump’s threat to jail Clinton. Political scientists also remain skeptical about whether the effect on public opinion is fleeting or long-lasting enough to make a difference on Election Day.
Chen, who was policy director for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, pointed to Romney’s strong performance in the first debate against a lackluster President Barack Obama in 2012. “After his outstanding performance in the 2012 debate with President Obama, Romney’s approval rating increased significantly in both public polls and our private polls,” Chen recalled.
“In the first debate, he made a lot of points that were well beyond the margin of error on many points. There was a period of positive momentum for a few weeks, but then the campaign went back to stasis.”
Chen added: “The debate doesn’t just take place in a vacuum. There’s not just the debate, there’s the world situation and the dynamics of the campaign after the debate. The debate will have an impact, but that impact will probably be short-term and will eventually fade as other campaign events occur.”