Note: ADPs for players mentioned in this article are for all Yahoo drafts that began in late May. Several running backs went undrafted in most leagues but have been trending up in the last week.
Davis is expected to take over as the big back in Buffalo after scoring 20 touchdowns in 12 games for Kentucky last season. The Bills gave 33-year-old Latavius Murray the 12th-most carries of five yards or less last season, despite Josh Allen having 14 steals. Meanwhile, starter James Cook had just two carries of five yards or less after Week 4.
Murray, Damien Harris, Ty Johnson and Leonard Fournette all had a combined 48 red zone chances last season (more than Cook), but three of them are gone now. Davis played well in preseason games and Buffalo has been the most run-oriented team in the league since Joe Brady took over as OC.
Davis has double-digit TD potential as a rookie and could be a top-five offensive threat in fantasy football leagues if Cook gets injured. Fantasy drafters are starting to take notice, and Davis went undrafted for most of August, but over the past week he has an ADP of 128.1.
Brooks was rated as equal to or better than Bijan Robinson in most rushing/receiving categories as the Texas starting running back in 2023. He’s a three-down back and arguably the best running back prospect in this year’s draft (and would have been drafted higher had he not had ACL surgery). Dave Canales plans to run the ball a lot, and top-50 players have historically performed well in fantasy.
Chuba Hubbard was the ninth-best fantasy running back through the final seven weeks of last year, and Canales should be a big boost for a bolstered Carolina offense that also acquired Diontaie Johnson during the offseason. Fantasy managers will need to be patient, as Brooks will miss at least the first four games of the season on the PUP list, but Hubbard and Miles Sanders shouldn’t be an obstacle if Brooks is healthy.
Brooks should be a key player in Canales’ strategy for the second half of the season, which is what matters most in fantasy.
Herbert averaged 95.5 yards rushing (5.1 yards per carry) and 0.6 rushing touchdowns in 11 games with 12 or more carries. He was a top-10 fantasy running back in all three games he was given 20 touches last year. Herbert was also one of just eight backs to force 25 or more missed tackles on fewer than 175 rushing attempts and was second only to Devon Achan in rushing yards above expectation.
D’Andre Swift is the favorite to start for Chicago due to his contract, but he missed at least three games in each of his previous seasons in the league. For reference, Herbert dominated Chicago’s first-team offense in the Bears’ second and third preseason games (while Roshon Johnson was curiously absent). Swift didn’t perform well last year despite being in a favorable environment, so a change in the projected roster isn’t out of the question.
With the departure of Justin Fields, the team lost over 150 rushing attempts, and Caleb Williams could lead a highly productive Chicago offense with the addition of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze and a strengthened offensive line.
Herbert could undoubtedly be a top-12 running back if he takes over as the lead back for the Bears, and would go undrafted in over 90% of Yahoo leagues.
Brown will share duties with Zack Moss in a Bengals backfield that has 18 touches per game left open by the departure of Joe Mixon. Brown has his flaws — he barely played third down last season and was last among 77 qualified backs in success rate — but he also posted the fastest running back ball-carrier speed of a rookie and 12th-best fantasy points per opportunity.
Moss faded heavily down the stretch after a brief period of success, while Brown proved he could handle a bigger workload, totaling 1,843 yards and 13 touchdowns on 355 rushing touchdowns in his final collegiate season. Mixon ranked third in red zone touches as Cincinnati’s lead back last season, and the Bengals offense could be the best in the league when healthy. Brown has great fantasy potential if given the opportunity.
We’re all rooting for Nick Chubb, but he suffered a torn meniscus and multiple torn ligaments in the same knee that he badly injured in 2015. Chubb was placed on the PUP list to start the year and will miss at least the first four games of the season. Meanwhile, the Browns have an elite offensive line and the best players in football (outside of the QB). Ford was a top-25 fantasy running back last season when Chubb was sidelined and is available after the 10th round in Yahoo’s 12-team leagues.
Wright had the second-highest yards per catch (7.6) among all college running backs last season. He’s an ultra-athletic back who ran the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds and joins a Miami backfield that’s fresh off of scoring more than 50 fantasy points since 2020, more than any other group of running backs. Raheem Mostert is 32 years old and has a lengthy injury history, and Devon Achain is 5’9, 188 pounds and there are plenty of durability concerns.
The Dolphins traded up to draft Wright, but he missed Miami’s second preseason game with a minor injury. Given Mike McDaniels’ system and the two injury-prone backs ahead of him, Wright could be a “fantasy league winner” as a rookie.
Tracy is a former WR turned RB who forced missed tackles on 39% of his tackle attempts last collegiate season. He also played on third down in his preseason debut and impressed. The seemingly scary injury Tracy suffered in practice in mid-August was not as serious as it seemed. He returned to practice and should be ready by Week 1. Devin Singletary will be the clear starter for New York, but he is 27 years old and had a career-high 216 carries last season. Tracy is one injury away from hitting the top of the waiver list.
Allen was a standout player at Wisconsin as a 17-year-old freshman, scoring 35 touchdowns in 35 games in his collegiate career. He earned the second-highest Dominator rating overall in this year’s running back class and appears to have earned himself the backup running back role in New York. With a thin roster behind Breece Hall, Allen had the league’s most explosive rushing percentage through the first weekend of preseason.
The Jets overhauled their offensive line over the offseason, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is another big upgrade, so New York will enter 2024 with one of the NFL’s best roster options, per Mike Clay’s projections.
Allen could be a fantasy difference-maker with just one injury, but he’s just starting to grab fantasy managers’ attention with an ADP of 130.9 last week on Yahoo.
Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers (Yahoo ADP: Undrafted)
Mason hadn’t been on the fantasy radar at all despite reports all summer long linking him to winning the backup running back spot in San Francisco. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry over his first two years in the league and has worked diligently over the offseason to hone his receiving and pass protection skills. Kyle Shanahan is a fan of Mason, and veteran Elijah Mitchell was just placed on IR at the end of the season, while rookie Isaac Guerendt is unavailable due to a badly strained hamstring.
Mason is no longer a secret, dominating the 49ers’ opening preseason series with a touchdown run. Christian McCaffrey is expected to be fully ready in Week 1 and said he could play today if needed. But McCaffrey is a risk after sitting out the preseason with a torn calf, battling injuries throughout 2020-2021 and throwing over 400 touchdowns last year.
Mason would undoubtedly be a big difference maker in fantasy games if he becomes the lead back in the NFL’s best offensive system, and while he went undrafted in most leagues, his ADP was 122.9 last week and should rise further following the Mitchell news.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Yahoo ADP: Undrafted)
Irving has performed well throughout the preseason and is the front-runner to be Tampa Bay’s RB2 in 2024. Starter Rachad White is a good receiver but one of the worst runners in the league. White ranks last in rushing yards above expectation, yards after contact per carry, and forced missed tackles per carry. Irving is a fantasy sleeper, having totaled 1,458 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games as a 21-year-old at Oregon last season. Yahoo managers are starting to take notice, and his ADP with Yahoo was 129.5 last week, despite being undrafted in most leagues in August.
Tyjay Spears, Tennessee Titans (Yahoo ADP: 106.0)
Spears was the only running back to force 25 or more missed tackles on fewer than 100 carries last season and ranked third among running backs in first-lead targets as a rookie. Spears recorded the fourth-most scrimmage yards (1,837) during his senior year and was particularly effective out of the shotgun; Brian Callahan’s Bengals ranked third in shotgun percentage last season.
Meanwhile, the competition for touches has shifted from Derrick Henry to Tony Pollard. Pollard admitted he didn’t feel fully healthy until the middle of last season after returning from tightrope surgery, and there’s no question he improved late in the game. Still, his numbers remained disappointing in the second half, as Pollard finished 22nd among RBs (11.5 FPPG) despite recording the second-most red-zone touches in the league (72) behind a strong offensive line. Spears ran 75 fewer routes than Pollard last year, but had more targets and 24% more receiving yards.
Spears may not have a long NFL career, but he’s a much better prospect than Pollard in 2024. Their ADPs should be swapped.