Donald Trump’s campaign is most concerned about former President Kamala Harris’ mood heading into the debate, worrying that a volatile Trump will engage in the kind of self-destructive behavior that cost him voters in the 2020 election, people familiar with the matter said.
According to people familiar with the matter, as the days count down to what is likely the final presidential debate of the season, there is talk within the campaign of whether a “happy Trump” or an “angry Trump” will win.
Tuesday night’s televised debate is widely seen as a crucial moment in the campaign’s reboot in 2024. Ms Harris has turned the tide in the race after Joe Biden’s debate performance dented his campaign momentum and led to him dropping out of the race amid clear concerns about his age and mental fitness.
But Ms. Harris’s popularity appears to have peaked, and Mr. Trump’s advisers see the debate as a chance to give her momentum back after weeks out of the news. Their hope, according to people familiar with the matter, is to bring back to life the way Mr. Trump was so agile in his debate with Mr. Biden.
Their worry is that they will anger Trump: If he becomes irritated onstage, he may resort to his worst instincts to launch ad hominem insults, as his recent attacks on Harris have become increasingly personal and extreme, enough to infuriate some of his supporters.
Trump has historically struggled to put black women in positions of power, and his campaign is wary of him repeating his recent comments questioning Harris’ race and making overtly misogynistic remarks, or even delivering the lengthy, rambling diatribes that have become a staple of his rallies.
Trump’s anxiety about his mood on the day reflects how his campaign saw the debate as a chance to reset the race after weeks of being on the defensive against Harris – and the risks of doing so.
While President Trump’s senior advisers continue to claim that they are pursuing multiple strategies against Harris, the clear truth is that their current strategy is to hope that Trump can win the debate and regain momentum.
The campaign strategy, or lack thereof, exposes a dire predicament for Trump and his campaign, who are struggling to find a way to mount an effective attack on Harris with less than two months to go.
As The Guardian previously reported, there has been a realisation within the Trump campaign in recent weeks that nothing they’ve done in the run-up to the debate has been enough to slow the momentum of Harris, who was polling at the same level as him in key battleground states.
Trump has had some success navigating the news cycle in recent weeks, including dominating the headlines when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed the Republican nominee at the Democratic National Convention.
But the reality is that there has been very little good news for Trump, and his pick for vice president, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, has done little beyond generating negative headlines, while Harris’ pick of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was well received by Democrats and reinforced the idea that she would lead a united and revitalized Democratic Party.
As Trump struggles to construct a narrative to counter Harris, the general stance within his campaign leadership is to abandon the usual programming that won’t change the race and turn to the debates that could.
A shift in focus to wishing Trump well in the debates could work: Trump is a formidable opponent, having defeated him in 2016 and 2020 with a string of confusing false claims.
The campaign also believes Trump can use the debate as an opportunity to deliver a message of criticism of Harris’ policies – which he has accused of allowing a wave of illegal immigration and not cracking down on crime – to a prime-time audience across the country.
According to this logic, even if networks refused to air Trump’s rallies or his daily rhetoric critical of Harris, they would be forced to air Trump and his offensive rhetoric when he has the floor.
Trump advisers are also emboldened by the fact that candidates’ microphones will be muted when it is not their turn to speak, which they believe will limit Harris’ ability to fact-check Trump in real time or crack jokes of her own.