Experts warn a Trump victory could trigger a World War II-sized security crisis in Europe
Although the race for the White House has become closer since incumbent Joe Biden decided to drop out, polls show that Donald Trump remains highly likely to win a second term as US president.
Such an incident would have ramifications far beyond the US mainland and analysts say it could be crucial to the Ukraine war.
Philip P. O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, and Edward Stringer, a former Royal Air Force Marshal and senior fellow at the British think tank Policy Exchange, also said a Trump victory could put Europe “in a bind” and called on European leaders to start planning for that outcome.
“By the end of January 2025, the United States, continental Europe’s most important partner, could be led by former President Donald Trump, who has said Russia would encourage European countries to do ‘whatever it wants’ if they don’t comply with his wishes to increase defense spending,” they wrote in a Foreign Policy article.
“The previous Trump administration strained transatlantic relations, and the next administration will undoubtedly make it even worse. Freed from the influence of the traditional Atlantic Republicans who served in his first term’s cabinet, a second-term Trump will face fewer obstacles in carrying out his threats.”
They warned that President Trump would immediately cut off US aid to Kiev and demand a quick end to the war, which they said would likely force Ukraine to cede large chunks of territory to Russia.
“And that may just be the beginning,” they continued.
“Trump has long questioned the value of NATO, and it is not inconceivable that he would withdraw America’s commitment to European defense.
“He could follow analyst Sumantra Maitra’s widely circulated ‘dormant NATO’ proposal, in which U.S. forces would provide logistical support as a last resort but leave all other NATO defense responsibilities to Europe. Or he could follow in the footsteps of President Charles de Gaulle, who removed France from NATO’s military command in 1966 (though not from the alliance itself).
They said Trump could act quickly by vowing that he would never order U.S. troops to fight for Europe.
“As a result, Europe would be forced to confront a security crisis on a scale not seen since World War II,” they wrote.
The authors discuss possible European strategies if such a scenario were to become a reality, including speculation about which countries might replace the U.S. military leadership, and then argue that nations must act urgently to prepare.
“In war, time is a precious commodity, and today, with war on the brink and the United States threatening to put European security at its most perilous in decades, the continent is wasting time,” they say.
“Europeans should have started planning for that possibility at least a year before it became clear that a second Trump visit was likely, to allow more time to prepare.”
“Instead, European governments have turned a blind eye to reality. If Trump is elected, this denial will have to end. Europe’s NATO countries will be forced to act to keep the continent safe and protect the freedoms of their people.”
“It is far better to approach that enormous challenge as rationally and as far-sightedly as possible, rather than rushing headlong into it haphazardly.”