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Kamala Harris’ entry into the presidential race has energized Democratic voters, pushing their approval ratings to near record levels, according to the latest polling data.
While Gallup’s numbers show support has risen among all voters, including Republicans, over the past five months, comparable figures show a much sharper increase among Democrats, likely driven by Harris replacing Joe Biden as the presidential nominee.
The growing enthusiasm coincides with Harris’ improved performance in the public polls compared to Biden, who dropped out of the race last month after a poor performance in a debate with Donald Trump that threatened to further erode his already stagnant polling ratings.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday showed Harris leading Trump nationally, 45% to 41%, a margin in line with other surveys since her confirmation as the vice presidential nominee at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week.
Harris’ numbers since then have generally widened the small lead she has had since surviving to top the Democratic field in July, suggesting that her approval rating has been further boosted by the post-convention surge that presidential candidates typically receive.
The impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision this week to end his own independent presidential campaign and endorse Trump is unclear, since Reuters/Ipsos and other recent polls were still running at the time of his announcement on August 23. The Trump campaign argues that the endorsement improves the former president’s chances of victory, even though Kennedy’s once-strong approval ratings had slumped to about 5% before his withdrawal.
But the outcome of the Nov. 5 election will depend on the performance of several key battleground states, where Harris made significant gains over Biden before dropping out of the race.
A Fox News poll on Thursday showed the vice president holding narrow leads in three of four Sun Belt states — 48-47% in Arizona, and 48-46% in Georgia and Nevada. In the fourth, North Carolina, which Trump won by just 1.4 percentage points in 2020, the Republican candidate had a one-point lead, 48-47%.
The poll shows Biden’s numbers have eclipsed recent records, when he trailed Trump by six points in Georgia in April and by five points in Nevada and Arizona in June.
And the Trump campaign slammed the figures in a statement, an angry response that reflected the magnitude of the stakes.
“It’s that time of year again, when Fox releases a terrible poll,” the campaign said. “President Trump continues to outperform the polls from this past election cycle.”
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The statement argued that Trump’s current approval ratings in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina are higher than they were at the same time in the 2020 election, which he ultimately lost to Biden.
According to various polls, the candidates are also neck and neck in three other key battleground states (sometimes called the Rust Belt) – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
In such a close race, Harris will likely be hoping that emerging enthusiasm for her candidacy among Democrats — which Gallup polls show is outstripping Republicans’ enthusiasm for Trump — could provide additional impetus to get voters to the polls.
Some 78% of Democrats said they would be willing to vote for Harris if she were the party’s leader, according to a Gallup poll — a dramatic increase from 55% who said the same last March when Biden was the candidate and concerns about his age were already common.
Enthusiasm for Trump among Republican voters over the same period has risen more slowly, from 59% to 64%.
“Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are driving the surge in enthusiasm nationwide,” Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones said in a commentary explaining the new figures.
Jones added that current enthusiasm levels among Democrats are just one percentage point shy of the highest level Gallup has recorded in the 21st century: 79% in February 2008, when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton faced off for the party’s presidential nomination.
But just because Harris is highly motivated doesn’t necessarily mean she’ll win — Trump supporters are just as enthusiastic — so what she can guarantee is a high voter turnout.
“As a result of increased awareness and enthusiasm for the election in both parties, voter participation is likely to exceed that of 2020, when two-thirds of eligible voters cast ballots — the highest in more than 100 years,” Jones concluded.
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