With Assad in Moscow and armed groups taking control of Latakia province, what will happen to Russia’s military bases in Syria? — Meduza

Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Moscow now faces the possibility of losing its naval and air bases in Syria. Two key Russian strongholds are in Latakia province, which is already under rebel control. The Syrian opposition has not yet issued an official position regarding its relationship with the Russian military detachment currently stationed in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also believes it is “premature” to talk about preserving the Russian bases in Khmeimim and Tartus. “This is a topic of discussion with those who lead Syria,” he said on Monday. However, no matter how you look at it, this “debate” has already begun. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Russian government may maintain a base in Syria as “part of the transition,” citing diplomats involved in talks with Russia, Iran, Turkey and “major Arab powers.” “It is highly likely that they have received a firm promise.” However, the extent to which the Syrian opposition will abide by these commitments remains unclear. Meduza explains what facilities Russia has in Syria and why their future is so uncertain.

Russian military base in Syria

tartus naval base

Located 160 kilometers (99 miles) northwest of Damascus, the Russian naval base in the port city of Tartus is officially known as the Russian Navy’s 720th Material and Technical Support Point. According to Russian law, it is the only naval facility located outside the country (Sevastopol Naval Base is located on the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, but since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Russian government has (not recognized).

The naval facility in Tartus was established in 1971 after Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, came to power. The base was intended to support the Soviet Navy’s 5th Operational Squadron in the Mediterranean and served as a repair and supply base. In the 1980s, it included three floating piers, a floating workshop, storage facilities, barracks, and other facilities. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the 5th Operational Squadron ceased to exist, but the Russian Navy retained its base in Tartus.

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Until 2007, Russia used the base to refuel and supply food to its ships that occasionally transited the Mediterranean Sea. And immediately after the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008, the naval base became the subject of talks between then-President Dmitry Medvedev and Bashar al-Assad. Shortly after, the Russian Navy installed another floating pier, and over the next few years a planned infrastructure development of the base took place.

After the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, the Tartus naval base became a “window” for Russian military aid to Assad’s forces. In 2013, the Russian Navy Command decided to create a new squadron in the Mediterranean and further modernize the facilities in Tartus for the maintenance and repair of ships. After Russia began its intervention in the Syrian civil war in September 2015, Tartus became a logistics center in the supply chain and a terminus for dozens of military and civilian ships carrying cargo from Black Sea ports (Syrian Express ).

In 2016-2017, Russia deployed S-300 and S-400 air defense missile systems and Pantsir S1 air defense missile artillery systems to the Tartus naval base, expanded the facility’s pier, and built a canteen, bathhouse, warehouse, and helipad. did. .

In January 2017, Russia and Syria signed a treaty allowing Moscow to expand its facilities and use the Tartus base free of charge for 49 years. The agreement allowed Russia to keep up to 11 ships in Tartus.

Khmeimim Airfield

Another important Russian base in Syria is the airfield at Khmeimim, located southeast of the port city of Latakia, the administrative center of Latakia province. Following Russia’s military intervention in Syria in 2015, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) built this base next to Bassel al-Asad International Airport.

Less than a decade later, Hmeimim became Russia’s stronghold in Syria. In addition to housing approximately 50 planes and helicopters and thousands of soldiers (including Wagner Group mercenaries) and their families, the base is surrounded by a host of other facilities, including a Russian Orthodox church, a sports complex, and a concert hall. Strong infrastructure is in place. The airfield’s two runways can also accommodate strategic bombers and large military transport aircraft.

During active fighting in Syria’s civil war in 2015-2016, Russian fighter jets and bombers flew tens of thousands of sorties from the facility, all but ensuring victory for the Syrian government over the rebels. Even on December 7, on the eve of the fall of the al-Assad regime, Russian Aerospace Forces carried out airstrikes on rebel strongholds, allegedly killing more than 300 “terrorists” (Russian authorities said they were insurgents from the Syrian rebels). the very next day).

What will happen to these bases in the future?

At the moment, neither experts nor Russian authorities have a clear answer to this question, as the situation in Syria is evolving rapidly.

Russia reduced its military presence in Syria after invading Ukraine in 2022. At the peak of Russia’s military intervention, there were believed to be tens of thousands of Russian military personnel and Wagner Group mercenaries in Syria, but by fall 2024 the number is estimated at 7,500. And it is difficult to know how much the technical capacity of the contingent has been reduced.

Everything that can be said with some degree of certainty is summarized in this thread on X by Dara Massicot, Senior Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Quoting OSINT analyst Frederic van Lokeren, Massicot points out that as of December 7, most of the Russian vessels were still in or near the port of Tartus. (Following earlier reports that Russian ships had begun to evacuate the base, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the exercises were related to Russian naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea.) Mr. Massikot also said that these He recalled that the ships would not be able to return to the Black Sea. , since the Turkish government closed off the Turkish Straits to warship navigation during the Russian-Ukrainian war. “They would have to attempt a very long journey to the Baltic Fleet or find nearby temporary accommodation in a limited number of ports (Libya, Sudan, Algeria),” she explains.

The prospects for evacuation from Khmeimim Air Base are even more uncertain. “Evacuation by air would require hundreds of Il-76 and An-124 sorties,” Massicot wrote, citing two types of large transport aircraft as examples. “When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before the base expansion.” However, a significant amount of the base’s equipment and supplies The parts were shipped by sea as scheduled.

So far, OSINT analysts have observed several signs of a possible evacuation. On December 7, three Il-76s and one An-124 arrived at the base, then flew to Russia via Turkish airspace, according to satellite images. The planes were likely carrying cargo and people out of Syria, Massicot said, but they also may have brought mercenaries and weapons to protect Russian bases. “Il-76s (and, less frequently, An-124s) landed in Khmeimim as a major transport hub, and sporadic arrivals were part of the normal pattern. It is clear that the change meant a mass evacuation. ” she says.

“What happens to the fighter is very important,” Massicot continues. “If Russia thinks it’s going to be attacked, it can jump out the same way it came in. It can also pack helicopters and air defense into the An-124.”

The fate of Hmeimim Air Base is also important to Moscow in terms of its supply to the Afrika Korps, an organization established by the Russian Ministry of Defense to absorb and replace the Wagner Group organization on the continent. Russian military transport planes flew to African countries via air routes through the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq, before refueling at bases in Syria. The Russian military command has no other facilities at its disposal that can take on this role, replacing the Khmeimim airfield.

It is worth noting that there is another stronghold of the Russian army in. Pro-Kremlin war correspondents say some Russian military personnel are literally surrounded by rebel forces, stranded at airfields and bases deep in the country. The amount of troops and equipment at these facilities remains unknown.

The task of evacuating Russian bases in Syria is objectively complicated by the situation on the ground. The rebels are in close proximity to these locations, which means that the transports and bases themselves are within small arms range. Without security guarantees from supporters of the new Syrian government, all evacuation routes for personnel and assets by land, air, and sea will be unavailable.