WWomen voters have been the backbone of the Republican Party for decades, but polls show the party could lose support this November as young white women move rapidly to the left. .
In the weeks following the 2016 presidential election, after Donald Trump shocked the world by defeating Hillary Clinton, the media focused on white women to explain Trump’s shocking victory. According to a Pew Research Center analysis of verified voter files, 47% of white women voted for Trump, while 45% supported Clinton.
Trump’s success with white women underscored a long-standing truth: this group votes Republican. The only two times in the past 72 years that more than one white woman voted for a Democratic candidate were in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson won 44 states, and in 1996, when Bill Clinton ran in a three-way race. In 2020, Trump’s lead with white women widened even further, with 53% supporting him. By contrast, 95% of Black women voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and 61% of Hispanic women voted for Joe Biden, the Pew study found.
However, since 2020, we have seen quite a change, especially when it comes to women. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in 2022, turning abortion rights into a major election issue. Kamala Harris has taken over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden, becoming the first woman of color to win a major party’s presidential nomination. All this raises questions. Will 2024 be the year that white women, who make up nearly 40% of the national electorate, finally join women of color in supporting the Democratic Party?
Well, not necessarily. However, there is a good chance that the gap will narrow.
There are signs that young white women are moving away from the Republican Party, and this trend is associated with a steady shift to the left among all young women.
“My research shows that both young women of color and white women are almost uniformly liberal and feminist,” says David, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute and recent author of Gen Z Politics: What Happens to the Youngest Voters? says Melissa Deckman, author of Shape our democracy. “I think having Harris as the nominee over Biden made them even more excited to vote. So young white women voters buck the long-term trend of white women overall voting Republican. I strongly suspect that.”
Young women are becoming more homosexual, becoming more secular, and marrying later in life. All of these characteristics tend to be associated with liberalism and support for the Democratic Party. (Those who identify as liberal are very likely to be Democrats, but the reverse is not necessarily true; not all Democrats identify as liberal.)
A Gallup analysis shared with the Guardian found that between 2011 and 2024, self-identification as liberal increased by 6% among white women. Additionally, such identification increased by 6% for black women but decreased by 2% for Hispanic women.
Gen Z is the most diverse American generation ever, but Gallup research suggests that alone does not explain the leftward shift among young women. Between 2017 and 2024, 41% of white women ages 18 to 29 identified as liberal, two percentage points more than their peers of color.
Young women are also rarely involved in politics. Women have long outnumbered men, but 60% of white women ages 18 to 29 voted in 2020, according to the center’s analysis of voter files and American Community Survey population data. This was more than any other group of young voters. Covers information and research related to civic learning and engagement. The center’s analysis of AP VoteCast data found that 55% voted for Biden.
President Trump’s victory in 2016 may have something to do with this trend. Chloe Fowler, who was raised as an independent with a Democratic leaning, said Trump’s election was a key turning point in her political evolution. She was a sophomore in high school when President Trump won. The next day, in the hallway of her school, someone gleefully yelled, “Grab that!”
“Those things stick with us,” said Fowler, who is white. A few months later, her mother took her to the Women’s March in Omaha, Nebraska. “Honestly, singing a lot of chants with her and wearing the pink cat ear hat was a very important moment for me.”
Mr. Fowler currently serves as vice president of the Young Democratic Party of Nebraska. The 23-year-old is furiously doing phone banking in her home district, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which could ultimately decide whether Trump or Harris becomes president. There is.
“Why is this race so close?”
The 19th News/Survey Monkey poll conducted in September found that white women prefer Harris over Trump by a narrow margin, 42% to 40%. (Polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.) The remaining 18 percent could make or break the election. The gender gap between white women and white men is even greater. Fifty percent of white men support Trump, while just 36% support Harris.
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Polls show that a majority of black women support Harris, as do large numbers of Hispanic and Asian American women.
Jane June, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, said what is often misunderstood as a “gender gap” between male and female voters is actually a racial gap. While women as a whole may ultimately vote for Harris, a September New York Times/Siena poll found that 54% of women plan to vote for her, compared to 40% of men. June predicted that white women will continue to be Republicans in 2024, despite some indications. “If all of a sudden white women say, ‘Oh my God, my bra and my Barbie doll shoes and my long fingernails and the plastic spray I put on my body are going to burn,’ we’re not like that. Look at that.” said Jun. “Why is this race so close? These groups are pretty consistent in their partisan loyalties, so they’re very close.”
Among moderate white women, the race is 43% to 44%, according to a poll by Galvanize Action, a group that aims to rally moderate women, especially in key “blue wall” states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. It turned out to be a very close battle. % support the former president. Galvanize Action defines these women as not ideologically established like Democrats or Republicans, and they represent more than 5 million voters in these three states.
While Trump has an edge on issues that are most important to women, such as the economy and immigration, women surveyed by Galvanize Action have more confidence in Harris when it comes to democracy and reproductive freedom.
“Even among women who say the economy or democracy is their top priority, a significant portion also say they won’t vote for someone who doesn’t protect abortion,” said Jackie Payne of Galvanize Action. . Executive Director and Founder.
Democrats hope that abortion rights-related ballot measures, which voters will decide on in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, will increase turnout among their base. But white women could effectively cast a split vote, voting for a pro-abortion rights bill and the Republican Party at the same time. More than half of white women voted for Ohio’s 2023 abortion-related ballot measure, but only white women voted for Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who signed a six-week abortion ban in 2022, just months after Roe’s ouster. More than 60% of respondents supported it.
“This is going to be all about turnout. This election is going to be very close,” said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. “Democrats are counting on women. They’re especially looking to Black women to participate. Will they be more energized?”
This article was amended on October 8, 2024 to clarify some numbers related to the 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll. This included 8% of Kamala Harris or Kamala Harris or Donald Trump introduced during the editing process. It was 18%.
This article was amended on October 8, 2024 to update some information about 2020 youth voters from the Voter Files and American Community Survey by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, in addition to AP VoteCast. Corrected that was analyzed using population data.
