Will recapture the Presidential Palace change the course of the Sudan War?

The scene of Khartoum’s jubilant soldiers shows the great advances in the attacks that have seen Sudanese troops grabbed the territory’s belt in recent months.

The Sudanese Army (SAF) lost control of the capital early in the war and has fought for two years to recover from the Paramilitary Quick Support Forces (RSF).

Now they have taken the Presidential Palace and believe that of course they are to reclaim the rest of the capital. But they have a long way from winning the war.

The complex, including the historic Republican Palace, is a symbol of power and sovereignty, important to military-led governments, and its story is important as a legal ruler fighting the “terrorist militia.”

This is another strategic victory.

After clearing out the exterior district of Greater Khartoum, the Army ousted most of the city centre from important locations like government buildings and away from the military’s general headquarters, according to an Army spokesperson.

This means that the RSF actually lost control of the capital, even though the fighters still exist in Khartoum.

However, it is not clear how far the front line has moved. RSF fighters are still scattered throughout the city centre and stationed in parts of the airport. They also occupy the territory south of the palace.

A bloody battle is expected to continue as the Army attempts to corner the remaining RSF units. The paramilitary, despite its weakness, has already shown that it can fight back, launching drone attacks at the palace that killed many Sudanese journalists and army officers.

A complete military victory in the capital was able to reset the direction of war and strengthen the territorial section that divides the country into two enemies.

The RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, controls most of the Darfur region in western Sudan and parts of the south.

The military support government, led by Army Secretary Abdel Fatta al-Burhan, controls East and North Sudan.

The two men worked together and held a coup together in April 2023 before the power struggle between them exploded into civil war.

Full control of Khartoum could help the Army complete the acquisition of Central Sudan, where it regained territory from the RSF in recent months.

It could also create momentum for the SAF to challenge General Hemedi at its Darfur base.

However, many observers believe that Sudan risks floating in a de facto partition, as the two fighting parties and their supporters are rooted in their zone of influence.

RSF is working to establish a parallel government in the region where alliance groups are collected to sign the political charter and constitution in Nairobi last month.

The intention was to show that despite the retreat of the battlefield, it remained a powerful force and the desire to control the country remains uncontrollable.

The people of Sudan are bearing the brunt of this brutal civil war, causing massive death, destruction and human rights abuses to civilians.

The United Nations describes the country’s situation as the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. More than 12 million people have been forced to flee their homes, and millions are facing acute food shortages, driven by hunger in parts of the country.

Khartoum is one of the places where it is expected to reach a hunger situation soon, and is subject to extensive looting from RSF soldiers and restrictions on aid by the Sudanese government. Therefore, changing power in cities can make a huge difference in the humanitarian conditions there.

But for most people in Sudan, that means for now it is almost likely to change.

Both sides have been accused of blocking emergency aid and effectively using it as a weapon of war, UN officials said. Critics single RSF on massive rape and genocide charges, both of which have been charged with war crimes.

The Army hopes that reclaiming the Presidential Palace will prove to be the staging post for the wider ultimate military victory.

However, while the SAF has momentum, it is unlikely that it will be possible to achieve a victory that will allow either party to govern Sudan as a whole, International Crisis Group said in a recent report.

Still, both sides vowed to continue fighting for the rest of the country, and so far efforts to revive peace negotiations have failed.