“They have chosen anarchy,” French President Emmanuel Macron said, referring to politicians from the right and left who last week jointly voted in favor of a no-confidence motion that would overthrow the government.
In a televised address to the nation on Thursday, President Macron stressed that the opposition had chosen an “anti-republican front” by eliminating Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government on Wednesday over a dispute over the social security budget.
Both the right and left parties said the unanimous decision to introduce a no-confidence motion was aimed at improving the welfare of the French people.
But the vote plunged France into political turmoil for the second time this year, leaving France with no budget for 2025.
Experts say the political impasse could affect far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Party (RN), which has long been keen to rule France.
Here’s what you need to know:
Will France’s political crisis help Marine Le Pen’s far-right party?
France’s far-right party RN, known for its anti-immigration and racist policies, was initially expected to win the snap election in July after garnering the most votes in the first round.
However, the New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties, won the majority of seats, outperforming far-right parties and Macron’s centrist coalition.
Le Pen said at the time: This time it did not rise as much, but it continues to rise, and as a result, our victory will only be delayed. ”
Since then, the RN has become keen to garner more public support, a strategy some say it implemented in voting against Barnier’s government.
France’s public deficit is equivalent to about 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), and Barnier is keen to bring it in line with European Union rules that keep countries’ budget deficits below 3%. Ta.
What does the RN want?
The RN wanted Mr Barnier’s budget to include clauses to increase the state pension and repeal cuts to health benefits, among other demands for budgetary concessions.
Barnier said he did not negotiate but listened to the RN’s demands.
However, when he tried to pass the budget without a vote in parliament, the RN party agreed to support the left-wing NFP’s no-confidence motion.
“Our choice was to protect the French people,” Le Pen told French broadcaster TF1.
“By censoring this budget, we protected businesses from rising labor costs, taxes on ‘Made in France’ and cuts to apprenticeship support. We protected the country from budgets targeting businesses. ,” Jordan Bardera, the RN president who is often described as a protégé of Le Pen, told state broadcaster France 2.
“The Barnier government was in the service of the far right. And the moment he didn’t achieve his political agenda, they got rid of him,” said La France, a left-wing party founded by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.・Amin Sunussi, political advisor to the French parliament at Ansemies, told Al Jazeera.
“(They) want President Macron to adopt all their policies, anti-immigration laws, Islamophobic policies, or else get rid of all governments,” he said.
Adam Hakow, program coordinator at the American German Marshall Fund in Paris, said people, especially those who reject the far right, are now looking for stability.
“If these mainstream groups are able to act on issues that matter to the people, such as health, security and the economy, Marine Le Pen will be cornered and marginalized, with limited influence on important legislation. “This could be a blow to Marine Le Pen’s disruptive strategy,” he told Al Jazeera.
What does this mean for Le Pen?
Le Pen, 56, has long had her eye on the Elysée Palace, the presidential residence.
In the past two presidential elections, he made it to the second round, but ultimately lost to Mr. Macron.
The leader of the RN party is the youngest daughter of far-right strongman Jean-Marie Le Pen.
She is hoping to win the 2027 presidential election and is trying to revamp her image by distancing herself from her father’s gaffes and racist and anti-Semitic outbursts and portraying herself as a leader of the masses.
But her anti-immigration and anti-Muslim policies continue.
Now she must appease her populist fanbase and moderate voters.
Jacob Roth, an expert on French politics and Franco-German relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera: “In the short term, Le Pen gives the impression that she is firmly established at the center of the French political game. It’s solidified,” he said. .
Mr Ross pointed out how she exchanged phone calls and text messages with the Prime Minister and had lunches and dinners with key figures from centrist parties.
“But this comes at a price: Her more populist voters will increasingly see her and her party as sellouts to the Paris establishment, which is why the overthrow of Mr. Barnier is It might help her in this regard,” he said.
“But it could alienate moderate voters who have traditionally voted for centre-right Republicans, who are attracted to Ms Le Pen’s ‘demonisation’ strategy, which has worsened the economy and reduced living standards. “Voters will think twice before voting for Le Pen if they fear the potential repercussions,” Ross added.
How is Le Pen playing now?
Le Pen is currently on trial along with other party members for embezzling EU funds, an allegation she denies. The outcome of this lawsuit is expected next year.
“Ms. Le Pen knows that filing a lawsuit could disqualify her from the next presidential election. That’s why the current political instability is doing her job,” Souci said. he said.
“She wants presidential elections next year, not 2027. If snap elections were to be held, the two politicians who would be ready to run tomorrow are Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen. “Other political movements do not have clear candidates and are not seen as Macron’s main opponents because they are trying to persuade him to work with the majority.”
But Ross said Le Pen had not pressed Macron to resign and pave the way for an early presidential election.
“She is more patient than the left-wing populists because she knows that public dissatisfaction with Macron will only grow and will probably strengthen her position,” he said.
On Thursday, Macron said he would not resign.
Activist and French Communist Party member Jonathan MacLea said Le Pen was far from a woman of the people.
“She has an interest in staying on the sidelines and watching others fail, even if it means to the detriment of the French people,” he said.
“Since[Macron]refuses to leave, he has two options: continue to put himself ‘under the radar’ of the RN by governing to the far right, or realize the consequences of the July snap. “Either make a different choice. Let’s hold an election and let the NFP govern,” he said.
