Why Republicans think their Senate majority will last 10 years: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, our evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News political team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, senior national political correspondent Sahil Kapur explores why it won’t be easy for Democrats to regain control of the Senate soon. Plus, political reporters Alan Smith and Vaughn Hillyard look at how Donald Trump’s transition team is turning to the much-maligned Project 2025 to fill jobs within the administration. We are verifying whether

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Senate Republican campaign manager: “Our majority could last for 10 years”

Written by Sahil Kapur

If Republicans win a new 53-seat majority in the 2024 election, outgoing National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines could give Republicans control of the chamber for several cycles. With this in mind, we continue to take on this difficult challenge.

“We’re grateful that we were able to win additional seats beyond our 51-seat majority, and I think it bodes well for us to maintain that majority for the rest of the decade,” Daines, of Montana, told NBC News.

Republicans seized four Democratic-held seats in red West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, and purple Pennsylvania. Republicans held races in red-leaning Florida and Texas, where Democrats were hoping for a miracle. Meanwhile, Democrats held firm in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin despite Donald Trump’s victories in those states.

But what were Daines’ predictions? It’s bold, but plausible.

Things can only get better from here, as Democrats just had a map nightmare. But it won’t be much better in 2026 or 2028 unless there is a dramatic political realignment.

The 2026 map follows the 2020 cycle, when Democrats gained 50 seats and flipped the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. The state where the party most hopes to rebound within two years is Maine, where longtime centrist Republican Sen. Susan Collins has proven to be a difficult target. North Carolina is another battleground state, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat since 2008 and fell short of unseating Republican Sen. Thom Tillis four years ago.

From there, it gets tougher with Alaska, Iowa, Kentucky, and Texas. Trump easily won every state in all three elections.

In 2026, Democrats will also have to defend seats in the battleground states of Michigan (Sen. Gary Peters) and Georgia (Sen. Jon Ossoff). Both will be top targets for Republicans.

Looking further out to 2028, Democrats’ best chances for economic growth may be in North Carolina (Sen. Ted Budd) and Wisconsin (Sen. Ron Johnson). But seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania must be defended.

Bottom line: Unless Democrats find a way to expand their support among white voters without college degrees, the prospects of proving Daines wrong are likely to be difficult. Given that many states are sparsely populated and rural, these voters have disproportionate influence in the Senate, which has two seats per state.

A silver lining for Democrats is that the new coalition, which relies heavily on durable support from highly educated voters and black voters, will fit well into turnout patterns for off-years and midterm elections like 2026. It’s about being there. Republicans have struggled to recreate Trump’s coalition for their own races, especially with Trump not running alongside them.

Trump’s transition team turns to Project 2025 after denying it during campaign

Written by Alan Smith and Vaughan Hillard

Donald Trump and his allies are using conservative transition plans and policy blueprints after Democrats used them to attack his campaign. He rejected the conservative Project 2025 during the campaign, seeing it as a liability. Some people close to President Trump even suggested that those involved in the effort would be barred from a potential administration.

“They’ve made themselves nuclear,” Howard Lutnick, Trump’s transition co-chairman and Commerce Secretary nominee, told CNBC in September.

But now that the election campaign is over, Trump’s transition team is turning its attention to Project 2025, which will help staff the next administration. People familiar with the situation told NBC News that transition officials are already taking suggestions for candidates from an extensive talent database created by Project 2025.

Project 2025’s vast book of conservative policy recommendations has garnered most attention from Democrats, but the centerpiece of the effort has been what officials are building as a conservative LinkedIn to support the staff of the incoming Republican administration. The goal was to compile a database.

Those helping to fill the human resources team for President Trump’s transition operations are using Project 2025’s database due to the enormity of the task of filling more than 4,000 political appointee positions that will be vacant in 2025. Information is being sought and used, the person said. .

The use of the Project 2025 database for job candidates has been accepted by candidates for government jobs, including Border Czar Tom Homan, Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Kerr, and John Ratcliffe. This transition has already demonstrated a readiness to find talent to contribute to the effort. As Director of the CIA. Homan and Ratcliffe are both listed as contributors to Project 2025, and Kerr wrote a chapter on the FCC.

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That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

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