CNN
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With almost two weeks until Election Day, I feel more uncertain about this year’s outcome than any other election I’ve covered professionally. Part of that is due to the polls, which are very close, but also because if it bodes well for Donald Trump, it also appears to bode well for Kamala Harris.
Many Americans believe there is a lot at stake in this election. Still, to me, this election remains a race with multiple outcomes. From a clear Harris victory, to a contest that was unpredictable until late election night (or week), to a decisive Trump victory.
Let’s start with a simple proposition. Harris’ easiest path to victory would be wins in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Harris loses in the Sunbelt battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina), she will win the three Great Lakes states, Nebraska’s 2nd District, and all the other states won by Joe Biden in 2020. , Harris will receive exactly 270 electoral votes. .
Average polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin currently show less than a one-point difference between Harris and Trump. If the current trend holds until Election Day, it will be the first time in at least 50 years that the average final vote difference in any of these three states has been within one point.
More than that, the margins in those states have been consistently close since Harris entered the race in July. Neither Mr. Trump nor Ms. Harris led by more than 5 points in these states, which mirrors national polling. This is the first time in more than 60 years that no candidate had a national lead of more than 5 points at any point in the campaign.
Many Republicans are hopeful that polls in the close race will show a landslide victory for President Trump next month. The former president significantly topped polls in 2016 and 2020. If Trump does the same thing again, he is likely to win comfortably with more than 300 electoral votes.
But he is cautious about thinking that missing votes will give Mr. Trump an advantage. Dating back to 1972, there has never been three consecutive presidential elections in which the same party benefited from missing votes in each state. In fact, Democrats were underrepresented in polls in key 2022 battleground states. Had there been a missed vote, as there was two years ago, Ms. Harris likely would have won more than 300 electoral votes.
Voting averages in battleground states are far from perfect. The average miss since 1972 is 3.4 points, with 5% misses of 9.4 points or more. Even a mediocre mistake in a key battleground can turn an election into a disaster.
You may want to infer the direction of potential polling misses from macro trends. Biden’s approval ratings are terrible. Never before has an incumbent political party been reelected with such low approval ratings for the president. No incumbent party has ever won re-election when so few people thought the country was heading in the right direction.
But Trump may be just the wrong candidate to take advantage of these structural advantages. If he wins, he will be the second most disliked candidate since polling organizations began tracking candidate popularity in the mid-20th century. The only unpopular candidate in the presidential race was Trump himself in 2016. Remember also that Republicans underperformed in the 2022 midterm elections, even though many macro indicators were pointing in their direction.
Please register your party. The trend is not as clear as it seems at first glance. Over the past four years, Republicans have defeated Democrats in every key battleground state. This, combined with national party trends, would typically lead to Republican wins this year.
But it’s unclear how many registered Republicans will vote for Trump. The latest Pennsylvania poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows that Harris could win higher approval ratings among Democrats than Trump among Republicans. . Therefore, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in the Keystone State, and these results mean that Harris is very likely to win Pennsylvania.
What’s even more interesting is that the race remains close even though many Americans have changed their voting patterns from four years ago. Mr. Trump appears destined for his best performance with black voters by a Republican presidential candidate in years. This is especially true for young black men.
Still, Harris appears to be doing better among white women than any Democratic presidential candidate this century. Although her vote share among black voters is not as large as Trump’s, white women make up a much larger share of the electorate. Therefore, these shifts can significantly cancel each other out.
This means that elections are likely to be decided by a small number of voters who have not yet made up their minds.
More than two-thirds of likely voters believe this is the most important election of their lifetimes, including 72% of Trump supporters and 70% of Harris supporters. Five percent of currently undecided voters will decide who leaves this election happy.
Ironically, only 24% of undecided voters agree that this election is the most important of their lives.
How painful it is for those who really care about elections to have them decided by so many people who don’t.
