Americans spent the summer eagerly awaiting two pivotal political statements.
First, Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris, who rose to the top of the Democratic field after Joe Biden wrapped up his reelection campaign. Swift formally endorsed the vice president shortly after the debate with Donald Trump, calling Harris a “steadfast and talented leader.”
The second statement? It didn’t come from another pop star. Instead, some election watchers were eagerly awaiting a prediction from Alan Lichtman, 77, a history professor emeritus at American University in Bethesda, Maryland.
That’s because Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of nearly every election for decades, except for the 2000 election. He uses 13 “keys” to pick candidates, ranging from economic indicators to the candidates’ charisma.
Here’s how Lichtman’s model works: If six or more votes go against the party in the White House, that party is predicted to lose. If not, Lichtman predicts that the party in power will win again.
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Lichtman, who shocked political pundits and made headlines earlier this month when he predicted Harris would beat Trump, told USA Today that he’s seen more reaction than ever to his 2024 prediction.
“Maybe it’s because of how important this election is and how unusual it is, with a sitting president leaving office right before the convention and an opponent who has been convicted of 34 felony offenses,” Lichtman said.
“This is an avalanche.”
Read more: Historian who correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections predicts 2024 election
Why do Americans love political predictions?
Professor Lichtman’s work is no ordinary academic endeavor, and his publications have garnered attention over the years, but what stuffy history professor deserves to become a major celebrity in an election every four years?
Search Professor Lichtman’s name online and your feed will be filled with videos of him deconstructing “locks” and giving his opinions on the latest election in interviews. You can watch him predict that Trump and his MAGA movement will beat Hillary Clinton. You can also read his prediction that America would elect its first black president in 2008.
Asked about the reaction to his prediction, Lichtman smiled, paused, then said only that he and his family were “very confused.”
“In a way, it’s puzzling why they’re so interested,” Lichtman said. “You can find out immediately who’s won and who’s lost, so why do you need to know in advance?”
But why are American politicians so fascinated by Lichtman’s predictions, and by election-year predictions of all kinds? He thinks it has to do with instant gratification.
“We live in a society of instant gratification. That’s part of it,” he said. “The other part is we live in a society of predictions. And it’s not just politics. Look at sports. Sports talk radio is always making predictions about what’s going to happen in upcoming games. Will coaches be fired? Who’s going to be traded, who’s not?
“It’s also entertainment: Who’s going to win an Oscar? When is this couple going to get divorced? Who’s going to date who?” he asked. “It’s everywhere.”
Ultimately, Lichtman says the “scandal” key is his favorite of the 13 keys, and a much more interesting step than considering economic data or midterm election results.
Still, he said doing a ton of interviews during an election year is not his favorite part of the job, nor are giving conference keynote speeches or receiving other academic accolades.
“The best thing about being famous is that people come up to me every day and tell me how much they respect the work I do, whether that be as an AU security guard, an Uber driver, a waiter or waitress,” Lichtman said.
Yes, he knows about the critics
Lichtman is no stranger to criticism, and the reactions to his selection have gone beyond questions from the media and conversations with voters in the Washington, D.C., area. Just this year, he said he’s received messages accusing him of being a “Democrat tool” and taking money from Harris.
But he’s been facing it for years.
Lichtman’s first prediction was in 1982, when he predicted that Ronald Reagan would be re-elected. He developed the model in collaboration with Russian seismologist Vladimir Kaylis-Borok, who worked on understanding earthquakes, not elections.
The professor explains that the initial backlash he received came from fellow forecasters.
“I committed the cardinal sin of subjectivity. Some of my keys were not simple statistical indicators like economic growth,” he explained, “and I said, ‘No, that’s not subjective. That’s a judgment. We’re dealing with human beings, and human beings make judgments all the time.'”
But as his work has gained traction, it has also drawn criticism from political activists, journalists, pollsters and non-academic analysts. These groups have made similar criticisms before, charging that his keys are based on the opinions of the people deploying the models, rather than on static metrics.
Lichtman’s response? He would argue that his study outlines specific guidelines for each key. For example, a strong economy in the short term doesn’t simply refer to how the person applying the method thinks Americans feel about the economy. Instead, the factor asks whether the economy is in a recession during the election campaign.
The professor still regularly responds to negative comments online, but he makes sure to remember that over the years, some people have made personal attacks as well as questioned whether his hair is real — “as if my hair had anything to do with my prophecies,” he said, tugging at his brown locks in an attempt to justify the claim.
“But I have to tell you something,” Lichtman pointed out. “Being attacked is not the worst thing that can happen to you in life. You know what’s the worst? Being ignored. And I haven’t been ignored in 20 years.”
Lichtman declares victory over Harris
Virtually every major national poll has shown the election to be within the margin of error and too close to be definitive.
But Lichtman said earlier this month that he expects Harris to win a historic victory this fall because she didn’t fight a significant primary before becoming the Democratic nominee, there are no viable third-party candidates after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the presidential race, and Lichtman’s model’s definition of the two economic keys works in her favor.
He also said Democrats are not facing “sustained social unrest.” Lichtman argued that the pro-Palestinian protests over Gaza that are destabilizing parts of the country, along with other factors, do not meet his key criteria.
In 2000, Lichtman said eight of the 13 keys could be good news for Democrats, but Al Gore ultimately lost to George W. Bush after a drawn-out battle that went all the way to the Supreme Court.
Lichtman caught the attention of some in June when he said Democrats should not drop Biden, even though Biden’s terrible debate performances caused a furor and led to the end of his campaign.
But he explained that as questions grow about Biden’s reelection campaign, he believes Democrats are in danger of losing two key assets: the power of incumbency and the role of primaries. With Biden’s withdrawal, Democrats have sacrificed the instant name recognition and other benefits that have long come from seeking reelection.
But because Harris didn’t face the typical primary process for the Democratic nomination and didn’t have to compete against other politicians, the left managed to salvage that part of Lichtman’s model.
Just to be clear, the recent Harris vs. Trump debate and the second assassination attempt on the former president don’t change anything.
“None of these one-off events, the debates, the assassination attempt, J.D. Vance saying he made up stories about immigrants eating cats and dogs, are fundamentally changing the outcome of the election,” Lichtman said. “And so they don’t change my prediction.”
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Political predictions… and the Senior Olympics?
Elections aren’t the only thing Lichtman knows.
He has been a runner for 60 years, starting when he was 16 and going on to this day. He recently won a bronze and gold medal at the Maryland Senior Olympics, qualifying him to compete in next year’s national championships.
His wife, Karin Strickler, is a triathlete, and the couple have played basketball together for years. Lichtman explained that during what was supposed to be a friendly game, friends said, “When Alan and Karin go one-on-one, there’s blood on the floor.”
Still, the family has a deep political following: Strickler is founder and president of Vote Climate US PAC, which, according to its website, “works to elect candidates who will eliminate all man-made greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,” while Lichtman regularly hosts a live YouTube show where he and his son Sam talk politics.
Lichtman told USA Today another reason why he, and Americans across the country, are so interested in political forecasting.
“It’s fun, it’s interesting. I’ve been doing this for 40 years. I’m 77 years old. It still gets me excited every four years because I might be proven wrong,” he said. “Obviously, I could be wrong. Anybody could be wrong.”
Contributors: Carissa Waddick and Elizabeth Beyer
