The College Football Playoff expanded through the 2024 season, but the number of teams realistically competing for a national title remains fairly small.
According to BetMGM odds, there are four teams with odds of +850 or higher to win the national title: Georgia is the favorite to win at +300, Ohio State is +325, Oregon is set at +700, while Texas is +850 due to several injuries in the backfield.
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Overall, there are nine teams with odds of 20-1 or better to win the national title. Following those nine teams are the defending national champion Michigan Wolverines and Florida State, who were undefeated in the 2023 regular season, at +3000.
The teams behind these teams in the rankings can be considered dark horses. Will any of these teams win a national title? Probably not. But if you look closely, I’m sure some of them have what it takes to win a national title. Here are five teams outside of the main contenders that I consider dark horses.
You don’t have to squint to see Tennessee could be a national title contender, and Nico Iamareava is a Heisman Trophy front-runner thanks to his pedigree as a former five-star recruit and his performance in the Citrus Bowl against Iowa.
He’ll have Squirrel White and Blue McCoy to throw to, three starters return on the offensive line, and the defensive line could be one of the best in the SEC, with 10 sacks in James Pierce returning and former BYU linebacker Keenan Pirri, a transfer who should be an immediate asset.
The schedule is favorable: Trips to Georgia and Oklahoma are on the line, but Alabama is at home and every other SEC game is winnable. An SEC title would mean a CFP bye, and if Iamareva is truly a Heisman Trophy contender, a national title isn’t entirely out of the question.
Can Niko Imareva lead the Volunteers to the College Football Playoff this year? (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
The Tigers have the best schedule of any team in the SEC, one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and one of the best wide receivers in the country at their position, and you can’t blame Missouri fans for dreaming about the playoffs, even though they know a punch to the gut could be just around the corner at any moment.
Brady Cook took tremendous strides last season and is on track to throw for over 3,300 yards in 2023. Luther Burden had 86 catches for 1,212 yards and will be a focal point for opposing defenses. Running backs Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll have each rushed for 1,000 yards and could replace the work of Cody Schrader.
The defense has strengthened through the transfer portal, and there’s reason to believe it could be just as good as it was in 2023. With the SEC’s move to eliminate divisions, Georgia isn’t on the schedule, and the Tigers’ toughest three games are trips to Alabama and Texas A&M and a home game against Oklahoma. Don’t be surprised if Missouri sneaks into the SEC title game, and who knows what will happen from there.
Utah (+4000)
We think Utah’s chances of winning are somewhat slim. They’re the favorite to win the new expansion Big 12 Conference, and winning the conference would mean one less playoff game because the top four players from the conference are exempt.
This team has shown how important competent quarterback play is in 2023. And Cam Rising is more than competent. The seventh-year QB should take Utah’s offense from “bad” to “very good” or better. Combine that with a phenomenal defense and this team has a natural shot at the playoffs and beyond.
It helps that Kansas State isn’t on the regular-season schedule, and if the Rising return to their 2022 form, there’s a chance Utah could go undefeated in the regular season.
Cam Rising will return to the starting quarterback position at Utah this year after missing all of last season. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Tigers have lost at least three games in each of the past three seasons, but some argue that trend will be broken in 2024 despite their Week 1 loss to Georgia.
The shift in offensive philosophy for 2023 has been a mixed blessing. Another offseason in former TCU OC Garrett Riley’s system could mean a lot for QB Cade Klubnik and his sense of security. The offensive line returns four starters and should be one of the best in the ACC.
There’s a lot of turnover on the defense, but you can trust Dabo Swinney’s ability to recruit. The roster is loaded with talent, even if the Tigers are still reluctant to enter the transfer portal. The schedule includes a trip to Florida State, but a loss there wouldn’t knock the Tigers out of the running for the ACC title.
Miami (+5000)
If you’re going to take a see-it-or-lose-it attitude when it comes to the Hurricanes, well, that’s OK. But there’s some optimism. Cam Ward could be Miami’s best quarterback in years, and he has two great receivers in Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George. The offensive line returns three starters and has a big addition in former Indiana center Zach Carpenter.
The defense will need to replace S Cam Kinchens, but Francisco Mauigoa returns and Ruben Bayne is also back, so they should be a very good team again.
It’s also possible that Mario Cristobal won’t make the same game management mistakes he made in 2023. Surely that’s to be expected? The schedule opens with a trip to Florida, but the toughest ACC matches against Virginia Tech and Florida State will come at home. If Miami can regain its confidence over the course of the season, this team’s chances are pretty good.