Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Camisar breaks down the latest NBC News Decider focus group featuring voters who supported Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary. Plus, Chief Political Analyst Chuck Todd explains why the end of this election feels different than the past two elections featuring Donald Trump.
Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.
Hailey voters weigh their options with anxiety as Election Day approaches
Written by Ben Kamisar
Kamala Harris’ deployment of prominent Republicans to criticize Donald Trump has not convinced a new group of voters who backed Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary.
But even if many of them don’t vote for Harris this fall, the constant controversy surrounding Trump could cost her votes. That dynamic is epitomized by the near-universal negative reaction to the former president’s harsh and sometimes racist comments at weekend rallies. in New York City.
Reactions were similar among 11 focus group participants in a new NBC News Decision Maker focus group conducted Monday night in collaboration with Syracuse University and research firms Engageous and Sago. For many of these Haley supporters, especially the seven Republicans and three independents, the episode served as a reminder of why they were unhappy with Trump in the first place.
“These voters represent two camps of Nikki Haley supporters: those who were turned off by former President Trump and voted for a third party, those who stayed home, or those who voted for Vice Harris to keep Trump out of the White House. Those who will vote for the president and those who will vote for Vice President Harris to keep Trump out of the White House,” said Margaret Talev, director of the Institute for Democracy, Journalism, and Civil Rights at Syracuse University in Washington. “Trump is the Republican candidate and they’re Republicans, so they’re going to hold their nose and vote for Trump.”
“Most of the voters we spoke to had known for months which side they were on,” she continued. “While support for Harris from the Cheneys and former Trump Cabinet members did not sway significantly, Trump’s aggressive rally at Madison Square Garden did not sway the minds of those still considering their options. It might shake you up.”
Jennifer S., a 49-year-old Republican from Pennsylvania, voted for Trump in 2020 but is now torn between voting again or voting for someone else, so she called the rally. He criticized the “racist rhetoric” and said it was unjust. It’s a “terrible reflection of the party.”
“I’m not going to vote for Harris for that reason. It still breaks my heart. If they had a very professional event, maybe it would have moved the needle a little bit in his direction or something like that. . But it traps me in a place where it’s hard to fill that oval,” she said.
Of those 11 voters, four said they planned to vote for Trump or were likely to vote, and another said they would choose between Trump, a write-in, or a third party. Two are voting for Libertarian Chase Oliver, and the remaining four are voting for or leaning toward Harris.
Read more about focus groups →
Election enters final uncertain days
Written by Chuck Todd
In many ways, the final weeks of a presidential election are like hitting a hurricane for those of us who cover presidential politics. There’s an eerie silence, and you know it’s about to disappear, but the anticipation is painful. There’s not much more to report or unearth. All you can do is wait (and continue to prepare).
That preparation includes considering all potential outcomes and thinking about how your campaign will get there.
To me, this ending feels more like 2000 and 2004 than Donald Trump’s past elections (2016 and 2020). Why do I say that? First, polls show a much closer race this time than in 2016 or 2020. The last time polls were this close in the final months of a campaign was during George W. Bush’s two successful presidential campaigns.
And I would argue that in both of Bush’s elections, especially the 2000 election, the campaigns ended in a kind of tie with both parties splitting battleground states, rather than one candidate winning a landslide. From 2008 to 2020, the championship favorites won or nearly won the final six or eight battleground states.
This year, it’s easy to see that the seven major battlegrounds are pretty evenly split.
At this point, it doesn’t look like either party will be able to make it to polling day with any certainty. Both parties feel optimistic, but (despite the public bravado of some in Trump circles) neither feels overly confident.
And that leads to what I think is the most likely outcome next week, a tie election for the House and the White House, but who barely wins enough electoral votes or House seats to win a majority. It takes several days to several weeks to understand.
This election is so divisive that a tie (of sorts) feels like the most likely outcome. Democrats have a financial advantage and appear to have even more resources at their disposal to help operationally. Republicans have the mood music of economic sourness on their side, and the current Democratic president gives them a compelling and natural “time for change” message.
Read more about Chuck →
🗞️ Today’s Top News
🚨 Damage Control: President Joe Biden sparks a firestorm with his response to racist remarks about Puerto Rico made by a comedian at a Trump rally. Harris strongly disagrees with criticizing people based on who they vote for, and said Biden “made his comments clear.” Trump, on the other hand, slammed Biden’s comments. 🔊 Turn up the volume: Trump and his allies are seizing on routine election processes in key battleground state Pennsylvania as signs of fraud, even as local election officials push back. Allegations, videos and lawsuits of alleged voting fraud are mounting. Continue reading → 🙅 Unconvinced: In interviews with NBC News over the past few months, some Arizona voters believe President Trump’s loss in 2020 was fraudulent He said he believes his loss in the election was justified. Continue reading → ⚖️ Courtroom turmoil: The Trump administration has been characterized by provocative policy moves that are quickly challenged in the courts, and is expected to pick up steam if he wins the election. Continue reading → 🗳️ Ballot battle: The Supreme Court has allowed Republican officials in Virginia to reinstate a plan aimed at removing noncitizen voters from the rolls ahead of the election. Continue reading → 👀 Bad bromance: Hailey criticized the Trump world for being “too masculine for this bromance thing” after the former president’s rally at Madison Square Garden. Continue reading → 📈 Economic Winds: The US economy posted solid, if somewhat disappointing, growth in the third quarter, with strong consumer spending buoying expectations for a slowdown. Continue reading → 📊 The poll shows: Polls in seven core swing states show surprisingly close races. But even in truly tied elections, random chance will likely produce more diverse and coherent results, unless polling agency decisions artificially bring state polls and voting averages closer together. . Continue reading → ✅ When is the race called? Members of the NBC News decision desk explain how they decide when you can predict the winner on election night. Read more → Follow live updates from the campaign trail →
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
And if you’re a fan, please share it with everyone. You can sign up here.
