Between the fall of President Joe Biden, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and the surprising results of November’s presidential election, 2024 has been a turbulent year for political news. We don’t know if 2025 will be much calmer. Indeed, as Trump and his administration seek to reshape the American government and conflicts continue to disrupt the world, our political system may be hit with one shock after another.
How will Washington react? What impact will it have on our lives?
I don’t really like making predictions. That is the role of a fortune teller. But journalism is about asking the right questions, so I’m sharing the five questions that are most on my mind as we head into the new year.
1. Are Republicans interested in governing?
They have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. They have Capitol Hill. They have a Supreme Court. Well, what is it? In politics, getting what you want is always dangerous. It’s always easy to blame others for your shortcomings, but it’s even harder when you’re in the minority, like the Democrats in Washington.
As President Trump seeks to reshape the American government and conflicts continue to disrupt the world, our political system could be hit with one shock after another.
Right now, it all depends on Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R.S.D.). House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana. and their reluctant ally in the White House, President-elect Donald Trump. If prices continue to rise, voters will cause Republicans to create their own inflation. If illegal immigrants continue to flow across the Mexican border, Republicans will also have an explosive problem. The recent fight over government spending and President Trump’s move to significantly increase the deal put together by Congressional Republicans are perhaps a bad omen for things to come.
And Elon Musk is emerging as a political powerhouse. He was the first to oppose the spending deal, and Trump followed his lead. He then quickly started a fight over immigration, leading to a MAGA mini-civil war between hardcore isolationists and those who want to keep recruiting skilled immigrants like Mr. Musk into the United States. It’s all very messy and very public.
Of course, both parties can agree to work together and share responsibility, without always trying to shift blame. But this is Washington we’re talking about.
Inaction can be expected to be followed by frequent manifestations of incompetence, blaming shadowy “awakened” forces. And there are a lot of Elon X posts.
2. Which promises will Mr. Trump keep?
President Trump’s pitch to voters implied a return to the way things were before the coronavirus pandemic. The domestic economy is strong, and no new problems have arisen overseas. But “before” wasn’t as rosy as some of the president-elect’s supporters would like you to believe. And time travel is never a good political strategy.
Has the immigration crisis worsened under the Biden administration? Yes, but now it’s Trump’s problem and the problem he promised to solve. He also intends to end wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, he says. Watch out, inflation. Watch out, China. Government officials, you have been warned.
President Trump has been more disciplined during this transition than he was eight years ago, when Trump Tower’s lobby became a marble-covered circus. This is a good sign, but for Trump to actually follow through on his promises will require a level of intensive multitasking and delegation of responsibility never displayed in his first administration.
3. Who will lead the Democratic Party?
After his defeat in November, everyone knows that a new approach to policy, messaging, and Trump himself is needed. But so far, no one has acted proactively to show other members of the party how to manage these responsibilities convincingly.
Sorry, folks, but that’s not Vice President Kamala Harris, no matter what her aides are whispering to reporters. She’ll always have supporters, but not quite enough to convince other Democrats that she should become their unofficial leader as she prepares for a second fight with Trump. not present.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York has shown an ability to keep the tone in the chamber, but he does not yet have a national profile and, in fact, has less national recognition than his predecessor and mentor, Nancy. may also prefer a conservative approach. Pelosi.
Sorry, folks, but that’s not Vice President Kamala Harris, no matter what her aides are whispering to reporters.
Potential candidates include governors Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, JB Pritzker of Illinois, and Maura Healey of Massachusetts. Their future is difficult. There is little appetite for full-scale anti-Trump resistance, but no one wants to be seen as a talker, especially on issues like immigrant deportation.
I happen to be very bearish on outgoing Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. I know I said I wouldn’t make predictions, but here’s one. Both Mayor Pete and Big Grech will suffer from DeSantis-style devaluation.
And then there’s John Fetterman, the iconoclast Congressman from Pennsylvania who broke with the party over Israel and immigration. Will he continue his rise against the liberals? Is he seriously going to work with the Trump administration? And will he wear shorts and a hoodie to his inauguration?
Oh, and never consider AOC.
4. What does the court do?
We tend to focus on the Supreme Court, given how significant its decisions can be. However, while the Supreme Court receives thousands of petitions, the Supreme Court reviews only about 100 cases a year. This means that the majority of federal cases remain in lower district and circuit courts.
Biden appointed 235 federal judges during his term, just one more than Trump. That means many courts are now deeply divided, and even the notoriously liberal Ninth Circuit is no longer what it once was. Additionally, the issue of state courts is another matter entirely, and these are also becoming increasingly conservative.
All of this will make the fight against Trump even more difficult for liberal attorneys general and progressive interests who want to prevent the incoming administration from rolling back environmental regulations or transgender protections.
5. Will the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East end?
Whatever your own views on geopolitics, the images and stories that have emerged from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s operations against Hamas are full of images of devastated cities, maimed children, tortured prisoners and hostages, and more. It was heartbreaking.
If you want to be hailed as the mediator of a historic peace deal, you’d better act soon.
At this point, despite President Trump’s unpredictable and unconventional involvement, it seems unlikely that either conflict will end anytime soon. Then again, perhaps his unconventional approach may be exactly what other world leaders need to accelerate peace efforts.
Do it quickly, President-elect, and you might win the Nobel Peace Prize. Imagine showing off that medal to a Mar-a-Lago guest. But if you want to be hailed as the mediator of a historic peace deal, you’d better act soon.
And of course, to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, there are the unexpected, the unknown unknowns. But you can’t worry about them. American democracy is still alive and well, the New York Mets have Juan Soto, and “Happy Gilmore 2” is about to be released. Not bad by my count. It’s not bad at all.
