Greg Auman
NFC South Reporter
Carmen Vitali
NFC North Reporter
Our NFL reporters were in unanimous agreement that the king of the NFL was in the North.
The question is, which north?
Projections for the strongest NFL division in 2024 are split almost evenly between perennial division powerhouses, the AFC North, and the resurgent NFC North. Once a black and blue division, the NFC North is chock full of young, physical talent that looks ready to compete now and in the future. The AFC North is an incumbent team that has, and continues to, be comfortable playing physical football.
Does the NFC North have what it takes to topple the current system? Let’s find out with a good old-fashioned debate. Carmen Vitali and Greg Auman are the hosts.
The case for NFC North
I want to be clear that I’m nitpicking when discussing the two North divisions in particular: Both the AFC North and NFC North are going to be very tough (and very fun) divisions to watch after this season.
But for the sake of argument, let’s separate the finer points.
The NFC North hasn’t been a powerhouse division lately, but if you look into a crystal ball, it will remain one for years to come. The Green Bay Packers are already in that position, and once again, they’ve made a smooth transition to a franchise quarterback, this time leading the league’s youngest team to the playoffs in his first year as a starter. The Packers have a lot of faith in Jordan Love, making him the highest-paid player in the league along with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.
The 2023 playoff team in that division is the Detroit Lions, who suddenly became the favorite after reaching the NFC Finals. They also have a young but talented team, with key players such as Aidan Hutchinson, Sam LaPorta, Jameel Gibbs, and Brian Branch under team control until at least 2026. They also have lucrative long-term contracts with veterans such as Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Penei Sewell. The Lions are going to be a pain for a while.
Then there’s the Chicago Bears, who can’t afford to lose. Caleb Williams has only played in two preseason games so far, but there’s optimism that he is indeed the prince that was promised. With all the offensive weapons a rookie quarterback could dream of, coupled with the fact that he has a top-five defense in the league alongside him, the Bears could be competitive and make a playoff bid as early as this season. General manager Ryan Pauls has spent the last three years setting this team up for continued success.
Then there are the Minnesota Vikings. The football gods seem intent on punishing them, but they refuse to die. Despite an injury to first-round draft pick JJ McCarthy, they have Sam Darnold under the tutelage of a great coaching staff that includes several former quarterbacks. They also have some talent on offense, especially once tight end TJ Hockenson returns from injury. Their defense should limit the amount of points scored against them, so even if the Vikings aren’t thinking about the playoffs this year, they won’t be easy to beat.
To me, this is the most important thing: Is the team that is supposed to be 4th in the NFC North (the Vikings) better than the team that is supposed to be 4th in the AFC North (the Steelers)? I think they are better. Minnesota has the best wide receivers in the league and the most creative defensive play-caller with two players who have the potential to get double-digit sacks, all under the umbrella of Kevin O’Connell, whose efforts continue to be underrated. I would immediately take Minnesota’s roster over Pittsburgh’s, and I think it gives them the edge in the NFC North as champions. — Carmen Vitali
The case of the AFC North
What will be the strongest division in the NFL in 2024? It will likely be the AFC North again.
The simple, indisputable fact is that all four AFC North teams (Ravens, Browns, Steelers, Bengals) were winning teams last season, finishing with the division’s best record in football at 43-25, compared to the NFC North, which finished just over 50% with a 35-33 record, eight games behind the division.
The Ravens reached the AFC Championship Game, the third straight year an AFC North team has done so, and while no one can dispute the Chiefs’ status as the NFL’s dominant team during that span, their division doesn’t have the depth of one of the defending champions.
But what about the AFC North? Last year’s success came with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow playing just 10 games and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson just six. Both were healthy heading into 2024, which raised expectations for the Bengals, who finished fourth in the division but are now tied for sixth-best odds in the league to make the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh won 10 games with little quarterback reinforcement, and instead of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, who may not start in 2024, they have Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who started a combined 28 games last year.
Las Vegas oddsmakers still view the AFC North as the best division in the NFL. When combining the over/under for win totals in 2024, the four AFC North teams are projected to win 38 games (again, conservatively five fewer than last year), two more than the next best division, the NFC North.
The latest NFL Power Rankings from FOX Sports also have the AFC North as a favorite: When adding up the rankings of each team, the AFC North (with three teams in the top 10) has the lowest total, ranking four spots higher than the NFC North and 11 spots higher than the rest of the divisions.
You can see why the NFC North is excited, considering Chicago has reason for optimism with Caleb Williams as the No. 1 overall pick and Green Bay’s Jordan Love is in his second year as an NFL starter and still on the rise. Detroit is a bona fide Super Bowl contender, while Minnesota will take a step back as they replace Kirk Cousins with Sam Darnold to replace JJ McCarthy’s season-ending knee injury. It’s hard to argue there are four playoff contenders in the AFC North, much like the AFC North is.
If we were to debate the merits of the two North divisions, we could use an old hockey stat: plus-minus. Their total point differential from 2023 is anything but. AFC North teams have outscored their opponents by 199 points, no other division is better than plus-57, and the NFC North is plus-52. The NFC’s top division will likely close that gap this season, but will they end up being outscored by 147 points?
The AFC North is the only team that can stop the Chiefs from reaching the Super Bowl again. Whether it’s Baltimore, which lost by seven points in last year’s AFC Championship Game in Baltimore, or Cincinnati, which was in contention with the Chiefs for a Super Bowl berth until the final three seconds two years ago before losing the year before. The Ravens have the league’s reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson. And from top to bottom, no division in football is more likely to produce teams dangerous enough to make the playoffs again this season than the AFC North. — Greg Auman
Greg Auman is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. Greg has worked for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic and is in his 10th season covering the NFL full time. You can follow him on Twitter. Gregorman.
Carmen Vitali is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen was previously with the Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Buccaneers, including 2020, and added a Super Bowl championship (and boat parade participant) to her resume. Follow Carmen on Twitter at Karmy V.
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