Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar discusses the latest installment of the NBC News Decider Focus Group series featuring young people in battleground states who are skeptical of both candidates. Plus, senior political reporter Jonathan Allen and senior Capitol Hill correspondent examine how Democrats were able to avoid major electoral swings in Nebraska.
Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.
Young people think the election is all about President Trump, whether they’re for him or against him.
Written by Ben Kamisar
A new focus group of skeptical young people planning to vote in the fall’s most important battleground states shows just how much this election is about Donald Trump for them.
For a total of 15 men under 30 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the former president has been a dominant force in politics and culture since their teens, if not earlier. ) participated in the conversation as part of the NBC News deciders. The Focus Group was created by Syracuse University in collaboration with research firms Engagious and Sago.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to receive it weekdays.
Here’s what we learned:
Focus Group 1: Harris-leaning group
All seven young male voters who said they were leaning toward Ms. Harris said their choice was a vote against Mr. Trump rather than an endorsement of the Democratic candidate.
Three people in Pennsylvania used the phrase “the lesser of two evils” to describe their choices, and another said they were choosing which would be “less damaging.”
“Kamala Harris is a step in the right direction, even if it’s a small step. I really hate MAGA politics, and a lot of the Republican Party is basically that extreme, which I really hate,” said the 23-year-old. said John M. “It’s more on the small side, but I feel like she has a little more promise.”
Focus Group 2: Trumpers
By contrast, of the eight men under 30 who lean toward Trump, four say they actively support the Republican candidate, and the remaining four primarily oppose Harris. said.
Those who described their vote as a positive endorsement of Trump recalled the “prosperity” and “stability” they associated with Trump’s time in the White House.
“Egonomically speaking, I was better off financially and geopolitically when he was president than I am now. And I also started to trust him more. I feel like that,” said Drake L., a 27-year-old from Philadelphia.
The battle for young voters
According to opinion polls, there is a significant gender disparity in the presidential election, with Trump leading among men and Harris leading among women. Democrats have long performed well with younger voters, but gender disparities still exist among them. This month’s NBC News “Stay Tuned Gen Z poll” provided by SurveyMonkey found Harris ahead of Trump among young men by 4 points among women under 30 (within the margin of error). It turned out that they were leading by a much wider margin (30 points).
Both sides have been vocal about their attempts to win the hearts and minds of young people. Trump through influencers and the world of martial arts, Harris through targeted ads and refrains about her past as assistant football coach to vice presidential candidate Tim Walz. And given that these voters live in battleground states that are regularly decided by a small number of voters, the final difference among these young male voters could be pivotal.
Read more about focus groups →
Harris could have sealed the first electoral vote this week
Written by Jonathan Allen and Garrett Haak
Amid the intense election season, the story of Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District has become one of the most compelling subplots.
This race is highly competitive, with Maine being one of only two states where electors are awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. Tens of thousands of votes were cast across multiple states in recent presidential elections, and there is a scenario in which Nebraska’s 2nd District could decide the winner of the Electoral College.
That’s why Mr. Trump pushed in court to change Nebraska’s law to award all electors to the statewide winner — who won 58.5% of the state’s vote in 2020. But his efforts fell short this week with comments from Republican state Sen. Mike McDonnell. The former Democrat said he does not support the plan.
Although Republican lobbying was intense, with President Trump’s ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) visiting the state to pitch the law, Democratic counterattacks proved more effective. did.
Jane Cleave, chairwoman of the Nebraska Democratic Party, told NBC News that she approached McDonnell because of her 18-year relationship with him. So did other Democrats and thought leaders in the state. They also pointed to lawn signs and other symbols of Harris’ campaign enthusiasm throughout the city.
Spending is lopsided in the district, with Democrats spending $6.7 million on ads in Nebraska since Harris became the party’s standard-bearer, compared to $6.7 million spent on ads in Nebraska, according to statistics from research firm AdImpact. Republicans are spending $170,000.
McDonnell’s Democratic Party private poll outlines how much your odds of winning next year’s Omaha mayoral race (a city that leans more Democratic than the district) increases if the district leans more Democratic than the district. The results were presented. I don’t agree with Trump.
A second private poll conducted by Republicans and shared with NBC News by a person with knowledge of the poll’s results explores why President Trump was so eager to change the rules and why Democrats won the 2nd District race against Harris. This shows that there is reason to be confident about his chances of winning. Vote. The poll showed Harris leading Trump by 9 points. (Joe Biden won the district by less than 7 points in 2020.)
Read more →
The ad war is largely about Harris’ definition.
Written by Ben Kamsia
According to AdImpact, more than half of every dollar spent on advertising in the presidential election between September 1 and September 20 was spent in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, with $4 in Pennsylvania alone. They say they collected $1 for each. If Georgia is added, it exceeds 60% of the total.
The spending shows how broadly aligned Democrats and Republicans are about the states where elections are being held and how either side will win them. And what those ad dollars actually buy tells an important story about your campaign.
Kamala Harris’ campaign runs an even mix of positive and negative ads on air, while Donald Trump’s campaign runs almost exclusively negative and contrasting ads. This shows how much attention voters and both sides are paying to the definition of a vice president. A three-time candidate, he sparked deep-seated views among American voters.
“It’s simple: Everyone has made up their mind about Donald Trump. Trump’s numbers are the most troubling thing in politics. They don’t budge,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and presidential campaign veteran. spoke.
“It’s Harris who has fluctuated. We’ve seen a lot of movement in her numbers since she entered the race,” Conant continued, noting that since she became the Democratic presidential nominee. , noted that Harris’ favorability numbers had increased dramatically.
Read more →
🗞️ Today’s Top News
🚨 Now You’re in New York: New York City Mayor Eric Adams faces five federal charges including wire fraud, bribery and solicitation of foreign contributions, according to a sprawling 57-page federal indictment unsealed Thursday. was indicted on the charges. Continue reading → 📺 Ad Wars: After Sen. Sherrod Brown and his allies enjoyed an ad spending advantage for much of the spring and summer, Republican Bernie Moreno and outside groups supporting him took to the airwaves. outspent Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin. in this month’s Ohio Senate race. Continue reading → 📺 The ad wars continue: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced it will invest millions of dollars in television ads for the Texas and Florida Senate races. Continue reading → ✈️ Flying south: Harris plans to visit the southern border on Friday, her first visit since becoming the Democratic nominee. Continue reading → 🍟 Supersize me: Harris again confirms she has worked at McDonald’s in an interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhl, contradicting Trump’s claim that she has never worked at McDonald’s. refuted the claim. Continue reading → 🖥️ Deepfakes: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Ben Cardin was targeted during a recent Zoom call by a caller posing as a former Ukrainian government official. Continue reading → 🙅 ‘Not accurate’: The Republican mayor of Aurora, Colorado, says he wants President Trump to visit the city and show that his portrayal of immigrants is false. Continue reading → ⛔ Wrong path: In the latest NBC News national poll, nearly two-thirds (65%) of voters say the country is on the wrong path, while 28% say it’s on the right path I answered that I was. Continue reading → 🗒️ From Women to Women: A tight-knit group of women organized online to place pro-Harris sticky notes everywhere women could see, from bathroom stalls and mirrors to the back of tampon boxes. I’m wearing it. Read more → Follow live updates from the campaign trail →
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
And if you’re a fan, please share it with everyone. You can sign up here.
