• Allen has often overcome a limited supporting cast. He played MVP-caliber football for four consecutive seasons despite an offensive supporting cast that finished outside the top 10 each season.
• A QB rushing threat like no other: If Allen can maintain his league-leading 93.8 PFF rushing rating, he will set a PFF record by the end of the season — breaking his own record of 93.6, set in 2021. Probably.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Josh Allen is playing at an otherworldly level, even by his standards. He led the Buffalo Bills, who were supposed to regress this season, to at least 30 points in eight straight games, seven of which were wins.
Allen is on track to become the first quarterback in PFF history to earn an overall grade of 90.0 or higher for five consecutive seasons. He is currently tied for that record with Tom Brady, who achieved the record in each season from 2015 to 2018.
So what is it about Allen that makes his MVP case so convincing this year? The answer is as multifaceted as his dynamic style of play.
1. “Inferior” supporting characters
After the Bills traded star wideout Stefon Diggs to Houston, there was believed to be a void in the team’s receiver corps. Players like Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Curtis Samuel will enter the season as nominal headliners. They also lost longtime center Mitch Morse to free agency and faced big questions about whether the more conservative approach they took all of last season would work.
It turns out that Allen is used to making this kind of supporting role work.
Bills PFF offensive grade (excluding QB)
Allen has played MVP-caliber football for four consecutive seasons despite having an offensive supporting cast that finished outside the top 10 each season. For comparison, the Ravens, who boast Allen’s biggest challenger to the MVP award in Lamar Jackson, ranked sixth in Jackson’s MVP campaign last year and third this season.
As we’ve seen over the past two weeks, Allen has to perform at a very high level because defenses often force him to do that. The Bills currently rank tied for 27th in the NFL in PFF defensive grade. Only two defensive starters boast a PFF composite grade of 70.0 or higher through Week 15. Allen consistently produces more production with fewer people than any other quarterback in the NFL.
2. Elite aerial play with improved ball safety
Allen’s 33 big-time throws and 7.2% big-time throw rate lead the NFL. That’s not necessarily breaking news, but he’s doing so while committing to a career-low turnover rate of 2.5%. Over the past six games, he has produced an astonishing 15 big-time throws compared to just one turnover-worthy play.
There are only 10 other instances in PFF history where a quarterback posted a big-time throw rate of at least 7% and a turnover value play rate of 2.5% or higher. Some of those seasons include Aaron Rodgers’ two MVP campaigns, Tom Brady’s 2020 Super Bowl performance, and great campaigns by players in their primes like Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. It will be.
Allen continues to improve despite being in his seventh season. As the year progresses in 2024, he continues to improve. Since his disastrous Week 5 game in Houston, where he completed just 9 of 30 passes, Allen has ranked in the top five in PFF passing grade and has played at a turnover-worthy rate. So we’re at the top of the league.
Allen reduces the danger on the ball while performing at an elite level through the air.
3. Improving efficiency on site
If Allen can maintain his league-leading 93.8 PFF rushing grade, he will set a PFF record by the end of the season. Of course, he will break the record of 93.6 points that he set in 2021.
Excluding Neal Downs, who accounted for eight of his 91 carries this season, Allen is rushing for 5.9 yards per run and getting a first down or touchdown 54.2 percent of the time. Among quarterbacks with at least 25 carries, only Patrick Mahomes has a higher conversion rate, and he has nearly 50 fewer carries than Allen.
Allen’s legs essentially allowed him to break the rule that quarterback performance fluctuates from year to year when pressure is applied. For the third time in four seasons, Allen leads the NFL in PFF rushing grade when under pressure. His ability to escape the pocket, be a true dual threat, and know when to scramble is almost on par with Lamar Jackson’s ability.
Josh Allen has been a legitimate MVP in each of the past four seasons. He continues to grow to the point where he is almost unstoppable. If he continues to play like he’s been playing lately, he could end up taking home the MVP award.
