S & P 500 (^GSPC) has finished the first four transactions under the new President since the first week of the Ronald Reagan administration in 1985.
In the next week, the investors will be flooded with news to test the rise.
The profits of more than 100 members of S & P 500 will be emphasized by the results of high -tech companies, Meta, Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA), and will be announced. It will be the busiest day of the week. 。 Starbucks (SBUX), Exon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) will also report.
In the afternoon of Wednesday, the Federal Preparatory System Council plans to announce the latest monetary policy decision, and the central bank is expected to remain unchanged, and what will investments will say about Powell Fed’s balance in 2025. I am paying attention to.
Last week, S & P 500, Nasdaq Comprehensive Index (^IXIC), and 30 types of Dow Industrial Stocks (^DJI) rose during the four -day transaction week when holidays were shortened. In the past five days, S & P 500 and Dow have risen 2.8% or more. The high -tech stock index has led the rise during this period and has risen 3.1 % or more.
On Tuesday, the dollar fell after President Trump’s universal tariffs, which was expected to be partially expected on the first day of his inauguration.
Citi’s stock strategist, Scott Chronart, said on a weekday that interest rates, US dollars, and crude oil implied volatility were all reduced in their customers.
“The fact that some of the policies of the policy was incorporated was a phenomenon that spans the whole assets,” said Chronato. “So far, macro -like turmoil is less than originally expected.”
On Wednesday, President Trump, along with Oracle (ORCL), Chatgpt developer Openai, Japanese complex SoftBank (9984.T), a new 50 billion called “Star Gate” to build artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States. After announcing a dollar private investment, he caused an AI rally. ) From those who participate in the joint venture business.
Oracle and Softbank opposed the news, along with Microsoft and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the first week, not only did market concerns about tariffs were realized, but active AI transactions were still attracting attention. It was a comfortable start of the second Trump administration.
This week, market news is expected to be active, and in the usual year, the announcement of the Fed that moves the market is highlighting this week’s economic news, and investors’ attention on President Trump’s policy will be tested. It will be.
According to CME Group data, the market has incorporated almost 100 % of the possibility that the Central Bank will remain unchanged when the Central Bank announces the latest policy decisions at 2:00 pm in the eastern Wednesday of Wednesday. Powell’s press conference is scheduled to start at 2:30 pm in the eastern time, which is likely to be a major cause of market volatility.
Last Thursday, President Trump appeared virtually in the World Economic Forum held in Davos, and said that it would “demand an immediate reduction of interest rates,” following a fall in crude oil prices. These comments have caused the potential collision with the Federal Reserve.
Nevertheless, a press conference may not be more exciting than usual, according to JP Morgan’s chief Economist Economist. “The press conference after the meeting of Powell has recently exposed the topic of FOMC on the day of FOMC,” wrote.
“However, next week, he expects to adopt an approach like a” duck and cover “. In particular, what kind of trade policy will be ultimately adopted by the participants of each committee. The only thing that was decided to be suggested that he was using his own conditional assumptions was the only monetary policy statement to be agreed on Wednesday.
In 2017, President Donald Trump (left) attended a nomination ceremony at Washington DC’s White House and Governor Powell, the Federal Reserve Council. (Shin Hua / In Borg, via Getty Image) ·Shin -Hanasha News (via Getty Image)
Several important indicators on the soundness of the US economy will be announced throughout this week.
The first estimate of the fourth quarter GDP to be announced on Thursday is that the US economic growth rate in the last three months of 2024 is expected to be 2.6 % per year, 3.1 % in the previous quarter. I am.
On Friday, a new value of the personal consumption expenditure index, which is a recommended inflation indicator of the Fed, will be announced, and the “core” PCE, excluding food and energy fluctuations, will be December in December. It is expected to be 2.8 %, and it will be 2.8 % from the previous year. November. Last month’s economists expect the “core” PCE inflation to increase by 0.2 %, rising at a faster pace in November.
RBC Capital Marketz’s US Intelligence Strategy Division Break Gwin said on Friday, in a customer’s memo, the Fed’s “third role” in the market in the combination of weekend data damping and Trump’s policy. He said he could do it.
Gwin claimed that either President Trump’s comments or the approaching data could “spread Powell’s remarks immediately at a press conference next week.”
In the financial results of S & P 500 companies, we started well. According to the factors data, the index is expected to grow 12.7 % year -on -year in the fourth quarter.
However, many of its growth still depends on the performance of high -tech stocks. And four of them, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple will report next week.
The group of these seven high -tech shares is expected to grow 21.7 % in the fourth quarter, compared to 9.7 % of other 493 high -tech shares.
As the graph below shows the following graphs, the difference in profit growth is expected to shrink through 2025, and many stock strategists have called for expanding the rise in stock markets other than large high -tech stocks.
As pointed out in the prospect of Barclays, the US stock strategy manager, Venene Krishna, in consideration of the great interest growth of Big Tech companies throughout the year, the Barclays Group is “EPS growth of S & PS. As a group of 500 (in 2024) groups (in 2024). “
In particular, the profit growth of Magnification Seven has slowed down slowly in the first half of this year, but is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.
Economic Data: Chicago Ren Ren Gin -US Activity Index, December (previously -0.12). Newly built houses, December, December (expected+6.6%, previous+5.9%)
Revenue: at & T (T), Nucor (Nue), Sofi (Sofi), Western Alliance Bancoration (Wal)
Economic data: Including endurance goods in December (expected +0.8%, last time -1.2%). FHFA Housing Price Index, previous month (November (previous +0.4%), S & P Coalogic Case Syrhiller Housing Price, 20 urban index, season -adjusted month -on -month, November (forecast +0.3%, +0.32%before); Conference Board consumer trust, January (expected 105.6, last 104.7). January Richmond silver manufacturing industry economic index (-10 last time)
Revenue: Boeing (BA), General Motors (GM), Jet Blue (JBLU), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Logitech (LOGI), Royal Caribbean Cruise (RCL), SAP (SAP), Starbucks (SBUX), Cisco (Cisco) Syy)
Economic data: MBA mortgage application, week ended on January 24 (last +0.1%). FOMC interest rate determination (no change)
Revenue: Tesla (TSLA), Meta (Meta), Microsoft (MSFT), ADP (ADP), ASML (ASML), General Dynamics (GD), IBM (IBM), Nasdac (NDAQ), Progress (PGR), Services Now), T-Mobile (TMUS), VF Corporation (VFC)
Economic data: 4th quarter GDP, first prediction (expected annual rate +2.6%, previous +3.1%). Personal consumption, prediction in the fourth quarter (annual rate forecast +3.1%, last +3.7%). Core PCE, previous quarterly, 4th quarter prediction (last time +2.2%). First number of unemployment insurance applications, January 25 (223,000 before)
Revenue: Apple (AAPL), Blackstone (BX), Caterpillar (CAT), Com Cast (CMCSA), Dow (DOW), Decker’s Outdoor (DECK), Intel (Intc), Master Card (MA), Mobile Eye (MA). Mble), Southwest Airlines (LUV), UPS (UPS), US Steel (X), Visa (V)
Economic calendar: Core PCE index, month -of -month, December (expected +0.2%, last +0.1%). Core PCE index, year -on -year, December (expected 2.8%, 2.8% last time). Employment cost index, the fourth quarter (expected is 1%, last time 0.8%)
