CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) – Odd-numbered years usually mean an election break. But that’s not the case in Virginia.
Virginia and New Jersey are the only states to elect a new governor in 2025, meaning all eyes will be on the commonwealth as we enter the new year.
Virginians will vote on several positions, including a new governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
“With partisanship as it is, our election cycle will be largely, but not entirely, driven by Donald Trump,” said Larry Sabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics.
Sabato said the governor’s race could hinge on how popular or unpopular President Donald Trump is with Virginians in the coming months.
In past elections, the Commonwealth has voted against the White House in gubernatorial races, with the most recent exception being Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s victory in 2013 under President Barack Obama.
“It was very difficult, if not impossible, for the incumbent president’s party to win the Virginia gubernatorial race,” Sabato said.
He says it will be difficult for Republican candidates to avoid responsibility for mistakes made by their party in Washington, especially now that Republicans hold majorities in both the House and Senate.
Current Attorney General Jason Miyares is seeking re-election, and Sabato said Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl Sears is the front-runner for the Republican nomination. She will face 7th District Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is considered a strong candidate.
Former 5th District Congressman Denver Riggleman has indicated he might run for governor or lieutenant governor as an independent, but Sabato says it’s unlikely he’ll get that far.
“He’s not going to break through the hyperpartisanship that we have here today,” Sabato says.
Four Democrats and one Republican have announced their candidacy for lieutenant governor. Although it is possible to split the office, Sabato said it is almost certain that the governor and lieutenant governor will be elected from the same party.
“People have chosen their side…and they just haven’t deviated from their party,” Sabato said. “They vote for their party ticket from top to bottom.”
The Legislature has a Democratic majority in the House of Delegates and the state Senate, with several special elections scheduled to be held next week. Two seats are open in Loudoun County’s all-blue district and one seat is open in the all-red 10th Senate District, which includes Fluvanna and most of Louisa County.
If Republicans win all three districts, Democrats will lose the majority in the state House and Senate.
“It’s a special election that happens right after the new year,” said Kyle Kondik of the UVA Center for Politics. “Turnout may be a little low, but in those circumstances you can’t rule out the possibility of an upset. But again, it would be a huge upset.”
As for Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Sabato says he’s keeping an eye on Washington.
“He clearly has presidential habits,” Sabato said. “He’s had it all through his time as governor and even before that. It’s a bug that’s hard to get rid of.”
One thing Sabato is confident about is that for the first time in the state’s history, the gubernatorial race will be between two women.
“It’s Sears versus Spanberger,” Sabato said. “One of those two will be the next governor.”
Have a story idea? Send your news tips here.
Copyright 2025 WVIR. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
