Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, a nightly newsletter where the NBC News politics team brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign, the White House and Congress.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Bridget Bowman analyzes what the post-Labor Day deluge of House election ads says about the broader political environment, plus chief political analyst Chuck Todd examines how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are trying to portray each other as incumbents in the 2024 election.
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The race for the Lok Sabha elections reveals three key trends for 2024
Bridget Bowman
While the presidential election has been raging for months, many congressional campaigns are saving their money for the last minute before investing in the issues they want to highlight most. That’s happening now, with a flurry of new TV ads airing in battleground states around Labor Day. And what’s happening in the House says a lot about the political environment that will determine the outcome of the presidential election.
There are three key points here:
1. Harris and Trump are currently largely absent from the House campaign.
An NBC News analysis of nearly 150 TV ads that aired last week in the 44 most battleground House districts identified by Amy Walter’s Cook Political Report found that none of the Democratic ads mentioned Donald Trump by name and only four of the Republican ads directly mentioned or featured Kamala Harris.
It’s hard to imagine that happening if Joe Biden hadn’t dropped out of the race.
2. Cost of living is paramount, especially for Republicans.
The rising cost of living remains a top concern for voters, and the issue has also been a major issue in the House race, with nearly a quarter of ads mentioning it. About 40% of recent Republican ads have focused on the cost of living, compared with about 16% of Democratic ads. Republicans see the issue as an important one across party lines, and recent polls have shown voters giving Trump higher marks on the economy than Harris.
3. Democrat attacks on abortion are largely ignored, but Republican attacks on the border are prompting a counterattack.
Democrats, echoing the Harris campaign’s main argument, are on the offensive to expand abortion rights. Abortion was the most commonly featured issue in Democratic ads, mentioned in 30 percent of the party’s ads last week. Only two Republicans ran ads on the issue last week.
Even as Republicans attack border security, more Democrats are responding to that messaging, with about 20% of Democratic ads mentioning the issue. That reflects Harris’ decision to run border ads within weeks of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee after Biden didn’t run a single TV ad about the border during his 2024 campaign.
Read more →
How Gen Z voters view the Harris vs. Trump matchup
Stephanie Perry and Mark Trussler
According to NBC News’ new Stay Tuned Gen Z Poll conducted by SurveyMonkey, Harris is leading Trump among younger voters but is lagging behind Biden’s 2020 vote margin among critical voters.
Half of voters under 30 said they supported Harris, compared with 34% who supported Trump. One in 10 respondents said they would not vote in the presidential election, and 6% said they would support another candidate.
Ms Harris has the support of 60% of young voters who say they are almost certain to vote in this fall’s presidential election, roughly matching the 60% of 18-29-year-olds Mr Biden won four years ago, according to NBC News exit polls.
Gender Gap: Young women said they would vote for Harris by a 30-point margin. Young men also said they would support Harris, but only by a 4-point margin over Trump.
Education gap: Harris leads Trump among college graduates (56% to 30%) and students currently enrolled in college (54% to 29%). Among young voters not currently enrolled in school who do not have a college degree, the two candidates are tied at 41%.
On the issues: Three in 10 voters under 30 say inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues facing the country, followed by threats to democracy (11%) and abortion (9%).
Harris and Trump have tried to portray each other as sitting presidents
Chuck Todd
How do you conduct a rotation election when there are two candidates, the sitting vice president and the most recent former president?
This question may seem puzzling, but who voters deem an “incumbent” is arguably the most important question when trying to figure out who will win the 2024 election.
That means the candidate who loses is likely to be the one the majority of swing voters consider more “incumbent” in their minds — and next week’s debates will go a long way toward establishing that point, depending on how well the candidates portray their opponents as part of the current problem.
There’s an obvious reason why both sides are desperate to keep the other in office: Voters are in a bad mood, as they have been for most of the 21st century.
If you take a step back and consider how American voters feel about whether the country is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction, the country has essentially been on the wrong side for nearly two decades, which could be described as a major political recession that will last a generation.
And the results of the presidential and midterm elections at that time showed that a majority of voters wanted change.
There have been only two national elections this century (2004 and 2012) in which one of the three centers of power in Washington did not change hands. The White House has changed hands three times (2008, 2016, 2020), the Senate four times (2002, 2006, 2014, 2020), and the House of Representatives four times (2006, 2010, 2018, 2022).
Both candidates will have a hard time, and should have a hard time, making the case for change because of their current and past jobs.
Continue reading Chuck →
🗞️ Today’s top news
🎯 Targeting Russia: The Justice, State and Treasury departments announced a joint effort Wednesday to target with sanctions and criminal charges what the Biden administration alleges are Russian government-backed attempts to manipulate U.S. public opinion ahead of the November election. Read more →👀 Shutdown watch: House Republican leaders are considering their options following pressure from President Trump to shut down the government at the end of this month if Congress doesn’t pass a proposal to enact new election rules. Read more →❓ Sharp change in 2020: In an interview with podcaster Rex Friedman, President Trump acknowledged he lost the 2020 election “by a narrow margin,” but later said the race was “rigged.” Read more →🙅 Energy shortages: Industry experts are questioning President Trump’s pledge to halve energy costs within his first 12 months in office. Read more → 🗣️ Trump Talk: In an attempt to garner support from Jewish voters, Trump has attacked three of the most prominent Jewish Americans in politics, making a point of calling Jews who support Democrats “complete idiots” who “need to get their heads checked.” Read more → 📃 House Republicans v. Walz: A House committee has issued subpoenas to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and others regarding their response to what federal prosecutors are calling the nation’s largest pandemic fraud scheme. Read more → Follow our live election coverage here →
That’s all from the Politics Department. If you have any comments (what you liked, what you didn’t like, etc.), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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