(This article has been updated to note that Arizona’s electoral votes increased by nearly 125,000 from August 2020 to the end of July 2024.)
WASHINGTON – A recent surge in voter registration numbers has shaken up an already contentious 2024 presidential race, with hundreds of thousands of new voters now registered to vote and a seat in the White House for the next four years. It helps decide who will live there.
In most of the seven key battleground states where Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris are particularly close in the polls, the current number of registered voters is dwarfed by the coronavirus pandemic. This is an increase compared to the 2020 presidential election, which coincided.
As an example, in North Carolina, registration is up nearly 500,000 people in 2024 compared to 2020, when Trump won the Tar Heel state over Joe Biden by about 74,000 votes. I am doing it.
In Michigan, the total number of registered voters has increased by more than 350,000 people since October 2020. Biden’s margin of victory over Trump in the Midwestern swing states that year was just over 150,000 votes.
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Similar voter registration trends are occurring in Arizona, where Biden defeated Trump by about 10,500 votes in 2020, and Nevada, where the current Democratic president defeated his predecessor by about 33,600 votes. There is. Between August 2020 and the end of July this year, Arizona’s electoral districts grew by nearly 125,000 voters. Nevada, the least populous of this year’s battleground states, has signed more than 260,000 additional registered voters compared to four years ago.
There are important caveats to this data. Registered voters are not the same as actual voters. As a result, the Trump and Harris campaigns are focused on increasing turnout in key constituencies as well as cultivating potential new supporters in the lead-up to November.
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The proliferation of names added to voter rolls occurs for a variety of reasons. As an example, more than 8 million people nationwide became newly eligible to vote on their 18th birthday since the last election cycle in 2022, according to Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. That’s what it means. In addition, election experts told USA TODAY that certain recent events, such as Biden’s decision to step down in favor of Harris and the endorsements of certain celebrities, are motivating many new registrations. He said there is a possibility that
Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, said voter registration is sure to increase during election periods, especially during events such as national political conventions, as Election Day approaches.
“What’s different this year is that there will be different campaign events than in previous years,” he said.
Key moments lead to greater voting interest
A tumultuous summer in politics culminated in late July with Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race and abandon his support for incumbent Vice President Harris.
Harris’ campaign appears to have attracted a flood of donations, renewed enthusiasm among liberal voters, and led to a surge in voter registration. Nearly 39,000 people registered to vote in the first 48 hours after Harris took office, according to the nonpartisan platform Vote.org. Within a week, that number had exceeded 100,000.
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Pop icon Taylor Swift then endorsed Harris via Instagram. Her post, made shortly after the September 10 debate between Harris and Trump, has received more than 11 million likes and includes a custom URL to voting resources and a link to fans. It included a call for registration.
A General Services Administration spokesperson said Vote.gov received 405,999 visitors in the 24 hours after Swift’s announcement. In comparison, the week before that, the website had about 30,000 daily visitors.
It is unclear how many of these visitors were successful in registering. Vote.gov itself is not a registration page, but directs users to a website with state-specific information.
The number of voters in battleground states could increase even more in 2024.
During National Voter Registration Day on September 17, Vote.org reported registering more than 150,000 new voters. This is a record of the organization during its annual civic holiday.
Of those, 16% were from seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
North Carolina has seen the largest increase in registered voters between now and this time four years ago, adding more than 500,000 voters, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections. In 2020, Trump narrowly won the Tar Heel State’s 15 electoral votes.
There are currently about 150,000 fewer registered voters in Pennsylvania than there were on Election Day 2020, when Biden won the commonwealth by about 80,500 votes. But as of late September, the state already had about 60,000 more voters than it did in the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats won key and close gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races.
A rapid surge in voters? What does the PA data on new voter registration tell us?
Given the even numbers of Republicans and Democrats, a handful of battleground states have emerged as noteworthy, each positioned to favor either Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris. The Trump campaign recently told Fox News that it is devoting “the utmost attention and resources” to promoting Republican registration in those states.
“And in states where the winner is determined by just a percentage point, that can make a big difference,” said Tim Murtaugh, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign.
The efforts of the Trump campaign and its Republican allies appear to be paying off. In all four battleground states where voters register by party, the Republican share of the electorate has increased since 2020. Republicans widened their lead over Democrats in Arizona, gaining nearly 260,000 more people. More registered voters are red than blue. And in North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Republicans have significantly chipped away at Democratic leads.
“I got shot in the arm” by Democrats
Overall, voter growth is not limited to battleground districts.
Tom Bonnier, Democratic strategist and CEO of political data provider TargetSmart, said the number of voters registered nationwide in late July after Harris took office was higher than at the same time four years ago. It is said to have tripled compared to the previous year.
She said many of the new registrants are young voters, specifically young women and young women of color.
His best comparison is the summer of 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortion nationwide.
“At the time, we looked at it and thought, ‘Wow, we’ll never see anything like this again, we’ve never seen anything like this before,'” Bonnier said. Ta.
But Bonnier said this summer’s numbers are higher than what he witnessed back then.
The potential influx of new voters from these specific demographics could be a boon for Democrats. The Democratic Party has a high approval rating among voters under the age of 35, and before the swing between Biden and Harris, it had been far ahead of the Republicans in terms of registration numbers. McDonald said.
“Democrats needed to solve this problem,” he said. “Harris’ entry provided an opportunity for people to get excited and start registering.”
Owen Wallace, 18, is one of more than 3.5 million registered voters in Wisconsin, an increase of about 27,000 from 2020 as of the beginning of this month, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission. are.
The freshman data science student at the University of Utah’s Wallace School registered to vote for the first time in July. He said he was inspired by his high school government class and his participation in America in One Room: The Youth Vote, an event that drew hundreds of first-time voters in Washington, D.C., over a weekend this summer.
Mr. Wallace filed an absentee ballot in his home state of Wisconsin and said he intended to vote for Ms. Harris.
The college freshman chose to register just before Biden’s sudden resignation, but Wallace said the decision reaffirmed his commitment to vote this fall.
“It was kind of a reinvigoration of hope,” he said.
Questions and concerns remain about voter turnout
Yet for many, registration does not automatically equate to participation.
Of the approximately 7 million Georgia residents registered to vote in 2022, approximately 4 million actually voted.
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However, the numbers improve during his presidential years.
Of the more than 8 million Michiganders who registered to vote in 2020, about 5.5 million voted. Approximately 9 million people registered to vote in Pennsylvania that year, and approximately 7 million voted.
Murtaugh, from the Trump campaign, told Fox News: “The people who showed up to vote will win the election. That’s when the ground war begins.”
MacDonald said he expected poll numbers this November to similarly reflect increased interest and enthusiasm.
“Anyone who registers between now and Election Day is registering with the intention of voting,” McDonald said.
