Venezuela’s ultimate political survivor Nicolas Maduro faces his toughest challenge yet

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is facing more international condemnation than ever during his 12 years in office.

Self-proclaimed socialists are widely believed to hold the following beliefs: lost in a landslide in last year’s election. This led to criticism from the United States and other countries that the vote was unfair. stolen And forced Maduro to turn. to security forces suppressing and arresting opponents.

He is now scheduled to be sworn in for a third term on Friday. opposition challenger Those who claim to have won have vowed to return from exile by then.

President Maduro appears to have thrived on conflict since the war. The late Hugo Chavez In 2012, he handed over the torch of the Bolivarian revolution to his loyal aides. The challenges range from one to the next. drone attack and large-scale protests Over the collapse of an oil-rich economy international crime investigation human rights violations and US bounty of $15 million It is related to suspicion of drug trafficking.

Latin American history includes everything from Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet’s attempt to tamper with votes in a referendum in 1988 to Peruvian leader Alberto Fujimori’s constitutionally prohibited third term in 2000. , there are many powerful people who survived contentious elections but were ousted in short order.

President Maduro faces his toughest challenge yet – one that will determine the future of Venezuela’s already weakened democracy.

Baseball or politics?

A biographical film made for last year’s campaign tells the story of how Maduro grew up in a working-class neighborhood in Caracas torn between his love of baseball and the student movement.

The coach tells the teenage pitcher, who plays Maduro in the movie, to make a decision. “It’s either baseball or politics.”

In real life, after embracing his father’s radical politics, Maduro was sent to communist Cuba in 1986 for a year of ideological guidance, but that was his only study after high school. did.

Upon his return, he found work as a bus driver and union organizer. In 1992, he embraced Mr. Chávez after then-army paratroopers staged a failed coup against his unpopular austerity government. Around the same time, he met his longtime partner, Cilia Flores, a lawyer for the imprisoned leader.

After Chávez was freed and elected president in 1998, Maduro, then a young lawmaker, helped push his agenda to redistribute OPEC countries’ oil wealth and political power.

international recognition

In 2006, Chávez appointed Maduro as foreign minister for his work in defusing tensions with the United States after a brief coup. In that role, he spread Venezuela’s oil money around the world and built alliances.

“He was always a very disciplined person,” said Vladimir Villegas, who has known Mr. Maduro since high school and served as deputy foreign minister until he broke with Mr. Chávez.

When Maduro came to power in 2013 following the death of his mentor from cancer, he struggled to bring order to a grief-stricken country. Without El Comandante at the helm, the economy went into a death spiral, shrinking by 71% from 2012 to 2020, with inflation exceeding 130,000%. Opponents and rivals within the government smelled blood.

He earned the nickname “Mavro” among the elite for his vulgar antics, such as claiming that Chávez looked like a “little bird” to him. Less than a year after his accidental inauguration, hardline opponents began demonstrations demanding his resignation.

President Maduro relied heavily on security forces to quell the protests. But as shortages spread and supermarket shelves emptied, they reopened three years later with even more intensity, killing more than 100 people. In 2018, the International Criminal Court opened a criminal investigation into the possibility of: crimes against humanity.

The crackdown continued until the 2018 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted after several opposition leaders were barred from running. Dozens of countries, led by the United States, condemned Maduro’s re-election as unfair and recognized National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s elected official. leader.

Further unrest followed, this time reinforced by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign to punish oil sanctions. Then came A secret raid was organized By a former U.S. Green Beret, barracks uprising And finally the coronavirus pandemic.

overturn expectations

Even as the country’s problems worsened, Mr. Maduro somehow became stronger with each crisis. By 2022, he had defeated his opponents and earned him a new nickname. super bigot, A nod to his thick black mustache. It was also a tribute to his reputation for defying adversity by supporters.

He goes into the 2024 election with the same mindset, and the surge in support for his previously unknown opponent Edmundo González in polls shows that his enemies and the U.S. are trying to destabilize the country. He was convinced that it was a political weapon to be used.

Since declaring victory in the face of reliable evidence of voter fraudPresident Maduro has relied on security forces to round up opponents. Gonzalez said this week that his son-in-law was kidnapped by masked men. Carlos Correa, a prominent free speech lawyer, was also taken away by masked assailants. The government has not commented on either incident.

Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, said such acts of repression could signal a weakness that could boomerang against Maduro.

“The key is the military,” Shifter said, adding that the recent overthrow of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad has renewed Venezuelans’ hope for change. If that collapses, the inside will also collapse. ”

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