Are you preparing for the US elections? From a “what to expect” perspective, this summary is a compilation of interviews with analysts at JP Mulgan Asset Management regarding the scenario if Harris and Trump win.
We expect interest rates to rise under President Trump due to more expansionary fiscal policy:
“A Republican victory with Trump could lead to more expansionary fiscal policy, a trade war, higher deficits, and higher interest rates.”
About the Federal Reserve System:
They may feel they have to resort to fiscal policy if it becomes expansionary, if it looks like it will increase the deficit, add fiscal stimulus, and further accelerate inflation. Then delay mitigation.”
If Mr. Harris wins:
“If we have a divided government and, say, Harris wins, I think we’ll continue to have this slow, long-term soft-landing economy, but it’s somewhat dull.” The Fed is “likely to stick to the dot plot until economic conditions dictate.” do not”
JPMAM will stick to its 25bp rate cut in November regardless of the winner.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
