Israel Adesanya will be looking to become the middleweight champion for a third time when he faces current champion Drix du Plessis at UFC 305. “DDP” will be making the first defense of the title he won most recently against Shawn Strickland, while Adesanya will be looking to bounce back after losing the belt to Strickland in a shocking upset at UFC 293.
Adesanya was scheduled to defend his belt against du Plessis at UFC 293, but du Plessis was not ready to compete after beating Robert Whittaker in a title bout two months prior, creating an opportunity for Strickland to shake things up at 185 pounds.
Adesanya and du Plessis face off after a rivalry that has unfortunately had some ugly moments, with both fighters born in Africa arguing over who was the “real African.” Adesanya was born in Nigeria and his family emigrated to New Zealand, while du Plessis was born in South Africa and still fights abroad.
The co-main event will see former flyweight title contender Steve Erceg take on former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France in what is sure to be the most action-packed bout on the card.
There’s a lot going on Saturday night, so before we get into our staff’s predictions and PPV division predictions, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds.
UFC 305 fight card, odds
Israel Adesanya -120 vs. Drix du Plessis (c) +100 for the middleweight title
Steve Erceg -160 vs. Kai Kara-France +135; flyweight Mateusz Gamrot -350 vs. Dan Hooker +275; lightweight Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220 vs. Tai Tuivasa +180; heavyweight Carlos Prates -350 vs. Li Jingliang +275; welterweight Junior Tafa -130 vs. Walter Walker +110; heavyweight Josh Curivao -140 vs. Ricardo Ramos +120; featherweight Terez Breda -150 vs. Casey O’Neill +125; women’s flyweight Jack Jenkins -700 vs. Herbert Burns +500; featherweight Tom Nolan -1200 vs. Alex Reyes +750; lightweight Song Kenan -175 vs. Ricky Glenn +145, welterweight Stewart Nicol -240 vs. Jesus Aguilar +200, flyweight
With such a huge main event, the CBS Sports staff has made their predictions and picks for the main card. The picks are made by Brent Brookhouse (Combat Writer), Brian Campbell (Combat Writer), Shakir Majli (Writer), Michael Molmile (Producer) and Brandon Wise (Senior Editor).
UFC 305 picks, predictions
du Plessis (c) vs. Adesanyadu Plessisdu PlessisAdesanyaAdesanyadu PlessisErcegg vs. Kara FranceKara FranceErceggErceggErceggKara FranceGamrot vs. HookerGamrotGamrotGamrotGamrotGamrotRozenstruik vs. TuivasaTuibasaRozenstruikRozenstruikTuibasaTuibasaPlates vs JingliangPlatesPlatesPlatesPlates
Du Plessis vs Adesanya
Campbell: If the 35-year-old Adesanya can’t hurt du Plessis and stop him from attacking aggressively, it will be a tough night for the former champion. Not only is Adesanya dealing with the burdens of age and an 11-month hiatus, the longest of his UFC career, he also has to deal with the mental strain of losing two of his last three fights (which led many to question whether he’ll be able to compete for a title). Adesanya was stopped by Alex Pereira and knocked down in the first round before losing a big points defeat to Sean Strickland. Given that du Plessis was a slight underdog in the stakes but can take the fight to the ground with his bulk as a big middleweight, there’s every reason to believe Adesanya’s chances of becoming the first UFC to win three straight middleweight titles are closing fast. And all the signs in recent years have pointed to DDP’s time being now.
Brookhouse: It’s entirely reasonable to expect Adesanya to win, and win handily. If this were Adesanya a few years ago, which I think is almost certain, I would expect the fight to be similar to how Adesanya humiliated Paulo Costa. Like Costa, du Plessis is a brute-force fighter who relies on pressure, but du Plessis is a little more effective at using his offensive style. But it’s hard to shake the image of Adesanya not knowing how to pull the trigger against Sean Strickland in his last fight. Time is especially hard on a striker of such exceptional talent, and this fight could have been a transition for Adesanya similar to how he transitioned against Roy Jones Jr. late in his career. Until we have reason to believe this was a one-off and not a new normal for Adesanya, the case is strong that du Plessis applied too much pressure and forced a successful title defense.
Majuri: This is a tough fight to call. Duplessis has been unexpectedly successful, while Adesanya had a terrible blunder against the big man Sean Strickland. Adesanya’s slick movement and counter attacking have kept middleweight powerhouses like Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa in check. Adesanya has the advantage because he knows Duplessis’s size well, but he hesitates when Duplessis is willing to walk through the fire and take his opponent down with force. This fight will be quick or ugly. I expect Adesanya’s movement to win key rounds or land a knockout blow, but don’t be surprised if Duplessis makes his challenger nervous with ragdoll takedowns and power punches. I am cautiously giving Adesanya a decision win in what will likely be his final fight as middleweight champion.
Erceg vs. Kara-France
Campbell: Erceg came very close to winning the UFC flyweight title in his last fight, but a late strategic error cost him his fifth-round loss in just his fourth UFC appearance. The Perth native returns to face New Zealand’s Kara-France in just three months, who is on a two-fight losing streak. But while we know that three straight losses at 31 years old would be disastrous for title hopes, don’t dismiss the slightly underdog Erceg’s chance to get back into true title contention. Remember that in the 2022 interim title fight two bouts ago, Kara-France came close to beating former champion Brandon Moreno, only to be stopped by a hard body kick in the third round (he later lost a split decision to up-and-comer Amir Albazi). Kara-France has three times as much UFC experience as Erceg, and should be willing to aggressively go for the finish to avoid situations that are out of the hands of the referee.
Bruckhaus: Kara-France is certainly a good fighter. But Erceg showed a lot in his loss to Alexandre Pantoja and could have finished that bout as flyweight champion if not for a disastrous decision to go for a takedown in the fifth round. This decision actually tipped the final round in Pantoja’s favor. I think Erceg will learn from his mistake and dominate Kara-France to win by decision in an entertaining fight.
Majuri: This fight feels like two flyweight contenders going in opposite directions. Erceg caught the attention of many with his loss to Alexandre Pantoja in a UFC title fight that came sooner than expected. I think he learned a valuable lesson that will help him when facing the flyweight elite. Erceg’s technical striking and strong submission game will be enough to overwhelm Kara-France, who could lose by knockout, submission, or decision. Kara-France’s power is always a threat, but Erceg is smart enough to keep you on your toes. I’ll give you the win by decision over Erceg.
Gamrot vs Hooker
BROKHAUS: I think Hooker will be very active here, but Gamrot’s wrestling will likely be tough. He’s averaging over 5.25 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. No matter how good Hooker’s takedown defense is, it’s not good enough to stop Gamrot repeatedly. If Gamrot decides to prove a point by forcing a stand-up fight, he could very well be an upset target, as the length of Hooker’s striking game will work to his advantage. Still, Gamrot should win more fights than he loses in this one.
Majuri: Hooker knows exactly how Gamrot will approach this fight, but it remains to be seen whether Hooker can stop it. Gamrot is one of the best wrestlers in any weight class in the UFC. The Polish fighter is relentless in his takedown streak, averaging nearly three per round. Hooker is a ferocious striker. Naturally, to support his offensive goals, he has worked hard on his takedown defense. Gamrot doesn’t have the elite control and submission prowess that Islam Makhachev displayed in his dominating win over Hooker in 2021, but he has the tools to neutralize Hooker’s game. Gamrot will get into trouble periodically, but he should be able to overcome it and regain his grappling advantage.
UFC 305: Who will win du Plessis vs. Adesanya, and how will each bout end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth UFC Fight Night picks from MMA experts who’ve made over $1,200 on their UFC main card picks.
