The “land grip” proposed by Donald Trump means that the US is no longer perceived as “a risk of hedging, not a stability anchor,” according to the organizers of the Munich security conference. , states in their pre-summit report.
The report, which is about a shift from the US-led post-unipolar Cold War era to a multipolar world where the outlook for a single ideological is not dominated, forms the background to this year’s conference.
Since his inauguration, the US president has acquired US lands in Greenland and Panama, suggesting that Canada could become the 51st US state. Signals from Washington increasingly show that the United States no longer wants to be a guardian of the liberal international order, but hopes that other countries will provide much-needed public goods of the world, and It is not clear which countries are willing to offer.
The authors of the report state that the withdrawal of the US from the role of global leadership has an impact beyond the issues of war and peace. Products like freedom of navigation and initiatives are even some of the many serious threats facing humanity. ”
The author also states that the US president’s efforts to advocate a new form of US primary will be undermined by a “multipolar” trend. Their report includes research data showing that trends are likely to be welcomed as a force for good in countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa and China.
The conference, which opens on Friday, is considered the most important forum for discussion among international security policy decision-makers. This includes the first meeting of Trump delegations led by European political and military figures since Vice President Trump, JD Vance and Trump’s inauguration.
Vance will be accompanied by US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegses, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukraine’s Special Envoy Keith Kellogg. They may be asked about the future role of US leadership and their proposed terms due to the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg denied reports that it plans to announce the completed peace plan at the meeting.
European leaders urge Vance to do more to undermine Vladimir Putin before negotiations, and via NATO, the US could stabilise Europe-led within Ukraine after a ceasefire Ask if you are ready to provide a bad backup.
The meeting coincides with Trump’s threat to place an unspecified “mutual tariff” on the EU.
The MSC report predicts a world where “more states are fighting for impact,” meaning “the future order may be much more troubling.”
“We may live in a world where multiple orders coexist or compete, with few remaining almost universal rules, principles, and patterns of cooperation. Such “multi-order” or ” In the world of multiplexes, liberal order does not necessarily disappear. But that reach will be either increasingly limited to the west or remain intact. ”
The author also not only is Russia interested in neutralizing Ukraine as a military threat, but also Russia-led, as outlined in the new security treaty proposed by Moscow to the US and NATO in the second half of 2021. It warns that it is working towards the Eurasian order.
They implicitly urge Trump to realize the possibility of Putin’s defeat and wider impact. “It is unclear whether Russia can continue its imperialist efforts in the face of economic uncertainty, empire overgrowth and highly intermittent wars,” they write. “This depends in part on the international community. This should decide whether to give Russia space to do that or instead pressure them to respect the international order based on rules. .”
The US efforts to hamstring China are likely to intensify — but Beijing could also benefit from withdrawing from the US international commitment and alienating longtime Washington partners. For example, this study shows that in all G7 countries the risk represented by the US has increased more than the risk poses by Russia. Environments that include extreme weather events are perceived as greater risk in all countries studied except the UK and Germany.
The authors state that peaceful coexistence between new and different orders “is not clear whether the Poles of the main order can manage their mutual relations in at least some rules, principles, and structures of cooperation. Considering this, it’s pretty unlikely.”
Rubio appeared to be accepting the prospects of a more multipolar world, giving evidence to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last month. “It’s not normal for the world to have simply unipolar power,” he said. “It was extraordinary. It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but in the end you were going to go back to a point where there are multipolar worlds, multipolar worlds in different parts of the world. We now , facing China and Russia to some extent. And you have a illicit situation like Iran and North Korea.
