The German election, set on February 23, has been coasting towards predictable results since the collapse of Prime Minister Olaf Scholz’s three-party alliance in December.
Friedrich Merz, the central right leader of the opposition Christian Democrats’ CDU-CSU, is comfortable ahead of his closest rival, the German populist nationalist alternative (AFD). To become prime minister, Mertz needs to form a coalition with the central left SPD or Green, or perhaps both.
This result risks creating a new iteration of an unpopular, eerie tripartite coalition led by Olaf Scholz.
The main novelty of the race is the unprecedented level of support (approximately 20%) of AFD. Three mass murders over the past three months have cast a long shadow on the election campaign at Magdeburg Christmas Market, Asshafinburg and more recently Munich. All three perpetrators have origins in the Middle East, and in two of the three cases, they failed asylum.
These events helped the fate of AFD in the second place position behind CDU-CSU. CDU-CSU’s lead over AFD was recently at 15% in mid-November. It’s currently the same as 8% points. The first TV discussion of the campaign, held on February 9th, featured only Merz and Scholz. SPD currently votes at around 16%.
With the narrowing margin between CDU-CSU and AFD, Merz sponsored the Bundesag resolution calling for stricter measures against irregular migration and rapid deportation of broken asylum seekers. On January 29th, this resolution was passed with support from AFD. Meltz broke the “firewall” taboo in the minds of many of his critics. This is a pledge not to cooperate with AFDs of all mainstream political parties. His movement was met with very large protest marches in Berlin and other cities. Merz now claims that CDU-CSU will never violate its pledge not to cooperate with AFD.
In the course of the campaign, neither Scholz’s Social Democrat (SPD) nor Green, led by Economic Minister Robert Harbeck, has gained much momentum as both are responsible for the weaker economy. Three small parties are approaching a 5% threshold to win seats. They are Sahara Wagen Knecht, led by Gregor Gisi, anti-war populist left party (BSW), led by Dai Linke (left), and business-friendly Liberal Democrats under Christian Lindner.
European shock therapy
Following last week’s diplomat letter from Defense Secretary Pete Hegses at the Ukrainian Defense Liaison Group, Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, the viability of maintaining Ukrainian courses and European security It brought a shocking new focus to the US commitment to security. raises German election interests.
Vance’s criticism of the German “firewall” was seen as an attempt to increase AFD support. Both Skolts and the SPD Defense Minister Pistorius responded viscerally in Munich, but Foreign Minister Baabok said he would amend his position on Ukrainian settlement, particularly with territorial concessions to Ukrainian territories and Ukrainian NATO membership. He insisted that the US would still be persuaded.
The conference organizers revoked the invitation to both the AFD and the BSW after the delegation of Ukrainian President Zelensky came out of the speech at last year’s event. Vance pointed out the time she met Alice Weidel while in Munich. For a good measure, the president’s envoy Keith Kellogg revealed that in Munich Europeans would not take part in the early stages of US Russian reconciliation. Following the start of talks between the Americans and Russia in Riyadh on February 17th, it was dizzy and serene for Europe.
A German diplomat told Politico that Europe received repeated calls (on the essentials to improve military capabilities), but he “keeped the snooze button.” It is difficult to understand how European analysts failed to prepare the contingency of the dramatic redistriction of American policy regarding Ukraine, which was clearly predicted before and after Trump’s campaign.
Merz recently headed towards the SPD’s position to relax the brakes of so-called debt, which had been in the way of a massive increase in German defence spending. This may be a small indication that the call to wake up has finally been heard.
The final TV discussions for the February 16 campaign included all four main candidates: Meltz, Scholz, Robert Harbeck (Greens) and AFD’s Alice Weidel. Merz revised his support for sending German long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, and Scholz continued to oppose this. Both said the long-standing question is controversial if the US succeeds in trying to reach a ceasefire or advances towards a negotiated settlement.
Meltz told Wedel that her “neutral” position in the Ukrainian war would disqualify the AFD from being in the government in his mind. Scorts laughed at the AFD proposal to bring back the economy. Nevertheless, this argument was planned long before Vance’s challenge with regard to firewalls, implicitly awarding some degree of respect for AFD’s position in the race.
Although Vance’s remarks are clearly upset, Scholz nevertheless amended the German permanent order to avoid violations between the US and European members of NATO. Germany – traditionally relies on American defense guarantees over nuclear-armed Britain or France – to the extent that Ukraine’s outcomes can represent the basis for survival and recovery of its citizens, and It seems likely that a settlement will occur.
Germany accepts the burden of moving towards Europe in NATO to avoid open violations between the US and Europe. In line with the German Centre Wright’s Atlantic tradition, Mertz is relatively cautious about the implications of Washington’s sudden policy change against Ukraine. Both anti-war AFD and BSW welcome the pursuit of negotiation.
Get real and magical thoughts
The Paris Summit, convened by Macron on February 16, did not generate consensus among Europeans in the next step, but the US would be able to launch a peacekeeping force when it would deploy. It shows that you have shifted your conversation to accept it. In Ukraine and Russia.
In balance, despite intense anxiety about Ukraine’s fate and reactions to changes in American policy, German elections are unlikely to bring uneasy surprises.
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