As the country prepares for Donald Trump’s second term in office, some history-minded people believe that the grave consequences came after Richard Nixon’s second term in office. Some people may seek understanding from the idea that
But as a scholar of American politics, I don’t think that’s an appropriate analogy.
Mr. Trump is already facing most of the circumstances that brought Mr. Nixon out of office, including congressional investigations and investigations by federal prosecutors.
Mr. Trump has survived by following the example of another American president who, consciously or not, created a political party in his own image and used it for near-unlimited control. Trump had a portrait of Andrew Jackson displayed in the Oval Office during his first term as president.
Unlike Nixon, Trump outlived the investigation.
Richard Nixon was reelected in 1972 with a landslide victory in the Electoral College during the Watergate scandal. During the Watergate scandal, people involved in Nixon’s re-election campaign broke into the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee and attempted to cover up their actions. Nixon began his second term with great support, but was quickly ousted.
The Senate Select Committee to Investigate Watergate was established just 18 days after President Nixon took office in January 1973. By the summer of 1974, the evidence of Nixon’s involvement in Watergate was overwhelming. During a visit to the White House on August 7, 1974, Republican Congressional leaders called on the president to resign. He announced his decision to resign on August 8, 1974.
But Trump has already weathered numerous legal battles, investigations and controversies. From the January 6th committee to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation to the Mar-a-Lago documents scandal, Trump’s political career has been marked by legal and political challenges, including two impeachments by the House of Representatives. It has been marked by repeated conflicts with institutions, each of which has been defeated by the House of Representatives. Senate.
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Following the Republican Party’s defeat in 2020 and overwhelming performance in the 2022 midterm elections, many within the Republican Party urged President Trump to step down to accommodate a new generation of leadership. But Mr. Trump took a firm stance.
The stalled or delayed investigations have given some breathing room until the 2024 elections. Now, when President Trump returns to the White House, he will almost certainly end the federal investigation, but there is little sign that the state’s lawsuit will move forward any time soon.
Historical revisionism, popularized by Tucker Carlson, has been occurring in some parts of the Republican Party in recent years. According to this view, Nixon was not ostracized for his involvement in Watergate, but rather became a victim of an establishment hostile to him. But just as Mr. Nixon took a step back, Mr. Trump fired back.
Like Jackson, Trump has realigned his party.
But in many ways, Mr. Trump is more like Mr. Jackson than the scandal-plagued Mr. Nixon.
After narrowly losing the controversial 1824 election, Jackson, like Trump two centuries later, claimed that the election had been stolen.
Jackson took advantage of the dissatisfaction of his supporters and reorganized the Democratic-Republican Party, eventually renaming it the Democratic Party. His followers championed his cause, founding state and local Democratic parties, and building a powerful grassroots movement.
As a result, the Democratic Party has democratized its nominating process, moving from elite-led legislative caucuses that choose candidates behind closed doors to crowded conventions. This shift allowed voters to directly participate in the candidate selection process.
The new Jacksonian Democrats not only aligned with his views, but also brought a wave of increased political participation. Through what became known as the “spoils system,” Jackson rewarded his supporters with appointments to government positions and ensured that his allies held important roles in federal and state institutions. did. This approach allowed Jackson to implement his policies more effectively while simultaneously mobilizing his supporters at all levels of government and integrating them into the American political system in unprecedented numbers.
When he won the election in 1828, Jackson’s efforts created a political landscape that gave him broad powers, including actions that circumvented institutional checks.
For example, the Trail of Tears, in which President Jackson forcibly removed and relocated Native American communities from their ancestral lands, exemplified the dangers inherent when a president wields broad, unilateral power. .
Jackson ignored judicial decisions and public outcry and acted with seemingly unfettered executive authority. An 1832 Supreme Court decision – Worcester v. Georgia – established tribal sovereignty, but Jackson refused to enforce the decision, and forced removal of the Cherokee continued.
His party restructuring and control of appointments allowed him to act with almost complete impunity. Jackson demonstrated his power by vetoing the renewal of the charter of the Second Bank of the United States and then unilaterally directing the withdrawal of federal deposits despite Congressional support for the bank.
Similarly, Trump reshaped the Republican Party. His influence was also evident in the Republican primary, where candidates aligned with Trump’s vision succeeded while opponents, so-called Never Trumpers and RINOs, were pushed to the margins.
This shift is not limited to rhetoric, but is also visible in the makeup of statehouses and Congresses, solidifying a pro-Trump ideology that extends to the party’s policies and priorities. The changes will give Trump a solid base on which to advance his policies.
Moreover, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority has effectively become the guardian of the political revolution Mr. Trump ushered in, giving the executive branch substantial powers and legal protections.
what to look for next
But even if his position is strengthened, there are limits to what President Trump can accomplish.
Unlike in Jackson’s day, today’s federal bureaucracy is a vast and deep-rooted institution with checks in place that can challenge or thwart executive overreach. Some of President Trump’s promises, especially those on immigration, social welfare reform, and trade, are likely to encounter resistance not only from his Democratic opponents but also from civil servants and legal processes embedded in federal agencies.
But Trump has said he wants to drastically reshape the federal bureaucracy, replacing experienced career civil servants with political appointees aligned with Trump himself.
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency likely signals the end of at least some of the years-long investigations into his past actions and ensures that his grip on the Republican Party remains intact. Probably. With a loyal voter base and supporting institutions, Trump is in a position to further reshape America’s political system.
