Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest NBC News national poll, but after last month’s heated debate and subsequent deficit in the polls, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris return home to support Trump. Republicans and voters’ favorable ratings of Trump support him. President Trump’s term.
These are among new polls released three weeks before Election Day, which also show that Harris’ popularity has declined compared to a month ago, after gaining significant support over the summer. There is a large gender gap between support for Harris and Trump. And voters see abortion as the most motivating issue for their 2024 vote.
“As summer turned to fall, Kamala Harris’s signs of momentum stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the study with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
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McInturff said “headwinds” to Harris include concerns that the vice president does not represent a change from President Joe Biden, and concerns that voters are more positive about Trump’s presidency than Biden’s. He said that this is contributing to narrowing the contest in the presidential election.
“She is seeking another term from the incumbent party,” McInturff said of Harris.
Still, the poll highlights uncertainty about the election (10% of voters say they might change their minds, and some voters who haven’t cast a ballot yet are still undecided. ), the percentage of voters who believe they will benefit from this presidential election is at a record high. There are “huge differences” in their lives, making it an important issue for both Harris and Trump. Third-party votes could also have an impact. When third-party candidates are included in the voting test, Mr. Trump gets a slight boost, with a 1-point lead.
And in a balanced election, even small changes in turnout between different groups can make or break one party or the other.
“Kamala Harris’ challenge: Can she rise to the moment and fill the void that voters have for her?” Democratic pollster Horwitt asked.
“The challenge for Donald Trump is: Can he claim that the turmoil and personal behavior that plagued so many during his first term will not interfere with his ability to govern and represent America?” he added. Ta.
“Next month will tell us whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.
A new poll conducted between October 4 and 8 shows that in a head-to-head race, Harris had the support of 48% of registered voters, while Trump had a tie with 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or would not vote for either option if they were forced to choose between candidates from these two major parties.
(For more on why this poll measures registered voters and those who are unlikely to vote, see the NBC News Pollster article.)
This is a change from a September NBC News poll that showed Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by 5 points, 49% to 44%, although within the margin of error.
Expanded voting to include third-party candidates also shows this shift, with the new poll showing 47% of registered voters backing Trump and 46% backing Harris, for a total of 7%. He said he is undecided whether to choose another candidate.
However, as of September, Harris held a 6-point lead in the expanded vote.
Given that close elections are often determined by which party draws more voters, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios. provide.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — slightly higher turnout among men, white voters, and voters without a college degree — Trump would lead Harris by 2 points, 49% to 47%. are.
But assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats—more women, more white voters with college degrees, and more voters of color showing up to the polls—these findings shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49% to 46 points. %.
All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
(Read here for a detailed breakdown of these different turnout scenarios and how they affect the election.)
big gender gap
48%-48% is as close as we can get to our findings. However, support for candidates varies widely among different groups.
The poll found Harris leading Trump among black voters (84% to 11%), young voters ages 18 to 34 (57% to 37%) and white voters with college degrees (55% to 41%). It turned out to be the most advantageous against Mr.
Meanwhile, Trump leads among rural voters (75% to 23%), white voters (56% to 42%), and white voters without a college degree (65% to 33%).
However, one of the most striking features of this election is the large gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women favoring Harris by a 14-point difference (55% to 41%). However, men support Trump by a 16-point margin (56%-40%).
Independent voters are fundamentally divided in opinion polls, with 40% choosing Trump, compared to 44% for Harris. Compared to other groups, more independents say they have not yet chosen between Harris and Trump, or that they do not want to choose either.
Harris’ popularity declines
Another big change in the NBC News poll since September is Harris’ popularity.
One of the big developments in the September NBC News poll, conducted after the Harris-Trump debate on September 10, was that her approval rating increased compared to earlier in the summer, before she became the Democratic presidential nominee. This was a double-digit increase. Her rating increased to 48% positive and 45% negative (net rating of +3).
However, in the latest poll, Harris has a positive rating of 43% and a negative rating of 49% (minus 6), which is mainly from independents and young voters.
This is not far from President Trump’s 43% positive score and 51% negative score (-8) in the same poll. The positive rating was the highest since Trump left office in the NBC News poll.
Biden’s perception of his presidency lags behind Trump’s.
Another storyline in the poll is the difference in voters’ views of President Biden and President Trump. This is an important issue given the efforts of candidates to position themselves as agents of change in this election.
Twenty-five percent of voters say Biden’s policies have helped them and their families, while 45% think they have hurt them.
These numbers basically flip the tables on Trump’s past presidential years: 44% of voters said the former president’s policies helped them, compared to 31% who said they hurt them. I answered that it had become.
Furthermore, looking back at President Trump’s term, 48% of voters said they approved of the former president’s job performance. This is higher than Trump’s job approval rating in an NBC News poll during his presidency.
This contrasts with Biden’s current approval rating of 43% in polls.
Also, when asked whether they were more concerned about whether Harris would continue the same approach as Biden or whether Trump would continue the same approach from his first term as president, 43% of voters said Harris of Americans say they are more concerned about following in Biden’s path, with 41% saying they are more concerned. They are concerned that President Trump will repeat his actions during his term.
“The fact that Harris is even slightly behind on this policy is a red flag,” said Horwitt, a Democratic pollster. “They’re more likely to think that Trump’s policies have helped their families.”
Abortion is the most motivating issue and the best issue for Harris.
While most polls, including September’s NBC News National Poll, show that the cost of living is a top concern for voters, this survey looks at other polls to gauge voters’ enthusiasm and motivation heading into Election Day. I asked a question. Do you vote for or against a candidate on that issue alone?
Top choices with multiple responses included abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democratic or constitutional rights (18%), and cost of living (16%).
The NBC News poll also tested Harris and Trump on nine different issues and presidential qualities, including who would do better on some of the key issues that voters consider top priorities.
Harris’ biggest issues against Trump were abortion (she beat him by 19 points on the issue), health care (+10), and being competent and competent (+5).
President Trump’s main challenges and qualities: Addressing the border (+25), addressing the situation in the Middle East (+18), and addressing the cost of living (+11).
On the key question of which candidate represents more change, Harris leads Trump by 5 points (45% to 40%), down from her 9-point lead in September.
Other important poll results
62% of registered voters believe the next presidential election will bring “big changes” to their lives. Here are the best answers to this NBC News poll question dating back to 1992.
As with presidential voting, Democrats and Republicans are evenly matched in their preferences for Congress, with 47% of registered voters preferring a Democratic-led Congress and 47% wanting a Republican in charge. In September, Democrats held a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%, but within the margin of error.
Additionally, 31% of voters believe the country is heading in the right direction, while 64% think it’s on the wrong path. The percentage of voters who think the country is heading in the wrong direction is at its lowest level since August 2021, when Mr. Biden last polled positive jobs approval ratings.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom responded via cell phone, and was conducted from Oct. 4-8. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
