Republicans are warning that Donald Trump’s campaign has spent far less money on voter turnout efforts in battleground states than it has in past presidential elections, and that attempts to bridge the gap with political action committees are overdue.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) had previously envisioned a massive field operation in the must-win state of Pennsylvania for the 2024 election, including deploying about 90 staffers to the state.
But the Trump campaign abandoned those plans when it took control of the Republican National Committee in March, redirecting its field efforts to combat voter fraud and pursuing a dual turnout strategy that relied on multiple political action committees and dedicated Trump volunteers.
As a result, the Trump campaign is devoting less resources to campaigning in battleground states, according to people familiar with the matter, leading Republicans to mock the scale of the campaign’s operations as being more like a midterm election than a presidential election.
In response to the story, the Trump campaign said its on-the-ground operation was larger than the 2022 Republican National Convention, which had 350 staffers in battleground states and 50 in Pennsylvania, according to Republican National Convention midterm election data obtained by the Guardian.
Still, the Trump campaign appears dwarfed by the Harris campaign, which is estimated to have about 375 staffers in Pennsylvania alone, the potentially decisive state where Democrats have spent years ramping up voter turnout efforts.
The Trump campaign also denied the criticism about its existence, arguing that it ultimately doesn’t matter as long as Trump Force 47 captains and the Pacific Islander League work together to reach enough voters, especially in rural areas, who are less likely to support Trump.
At least that last claim is true: The RNC used to focus on suburban areas, where it could reach many more homes in a day, rather than the rural areas it targeted with a barrage of mail ads.
But the PAC’s work to fill the gap has been slow, according to people with direct access to the data from groups like America PAC, Turn Out for America, Turning Point Action and America First Works.
They have only begun hiring rapidly in recent weeks, according to people familiar with the matter, as they reach out to Trump supporters late in the election cycle when multiple rounds of “voter contact” are needed to get ballots returned.
This situation means not only that the Trump campaign’s official operation for the 2024 election is particularly small, but also that the canvassers and canvassers recruited by its PAC may be less effective than in past presidential election cycles.
The chaotic state of the Republican National Committee is at least partly why the Trump campaign has been reluctant to get into a ground game this election, according to current and former officials.
When the Trump campaign took control of the Republican National Committee, it quickly asked fired staffers to reapply and imposed a hiring freeze. Trump was also preoccupied with allegations of widespread voter fraud and diverted resources to “election integrity” efforts, according to staffers.
But with Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race and Kamala Harris emerging as the nominee and trailing in key opinion polls, it’s clear that low-key efforts to encourage voters to cast ballots can make a crucial difference in a close election.
The Trump campaign took a gamble by outsourcing its campaign work after the Federal Election Commission gave campaigns permission to work with PACs on turnout efforts, freeing them up to spend campaign funds on rallies and legal fees.
The rule changes meant the Trump campaign saw outsourcing as less risky than it was when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis used a super PAC to crush his Republican primary. (Ironically, DeSantis’ former primary aides Phil Cox and Genela Peck now run America PAC, which does field work for Trump.)
Still, the Trump campaign has quietly made a concerted effort to increase its own paid staff in battleground states, placing more emphasis on the Trump Force 47 Captains program and relying less on the Pacific Islander League.
The Trump Force 47 program replicates the same formula that was successful in the Republican primary elections, offering limited-edition MAGA hats and other merchandise to entice their neighbors to vote.
Each volunteer starts by receiving a list of 10 neighbors to personally mobilize, and once they reach that goal, they receive a larger list that includes people who are hard to reach through traditional voting methods like television ads, mailings and phone banks.
“While Trump Force 47 focuses on devoting maximum attention and resources to increasing turnout among voters who rarely or ‘occasionally’ vote, the NTL model values contact with all voters equally,” a Trump administration official said, referring to the Neighborhood Team Leader model run by the Republican National Committee.
Other than as a justification for scrapping the plan, it’s not clear why the Trump Force 47 model would be better at targeting voters who are less likely to vote than what current and former officials say the RNC has been doing for years using machine learning.
Republicans have also expressed caution about the program, pointing out that Trump did not turn out particularly well in the primary elections and criticizing it as an incentive for volunteers to rush through the process just to get a hat, as with other get-out-the-vote efforts.