CNN
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Pre-election voting has ended across the country, with many states ending in-person early voting over the weekend.
Already, more than 78 million people in 47 states and the District of Columbia Voting is taking place. You’ll know who’s voting by November.
This data helps us understand who is choosing to vote before Election Day, but it does not predict election results. For example, we don’t know who people are voting for, and the data doesn’t include the millions of Americans heading to the polls on Tuesday.
But with less than 24 hours until Election Day voting begins across the U.S., here are three big takeaways from what we know about people who decided to vote before November 5th. Let me introduce you.
Nationwide, far fewer voters chose to cast their ballots ahead of Election Day this year than in the pandemic-era 2020 election.
Four years ago, more than 110 million Americans voted early in person or by mail. That’s about 70% of everyone who voted in that election.
The final total number of voters in 2024 will not be known for several weeks until all results are fully counted, but pre-election voting is expected to account for nearly 50% of total votes, with pre-election The division status is as follows. 2022 midterm elections.
Although overall early voting is down, more voters in some states chose to vote early than in 2020.
Record numbers of voters participated in early voting in both key states, North Carolina and Georgia, with Georgia’s total number of voters exceeding 2020 numbers. However, the total number of early voting votes in North Carolina remained below four. This is because a few years ago, the number of people choosing to vote by mail dropped significantly.
Voting by mail has been an especially popular option during the pandemic, as voters chose to avoid crowds at in-person polling places. But in both states, voting by mail is now more difficult than it was four years ago.
See what election officials in key battleground states are doing before Election Day
Republicans accounted for a higher percentage of pre-election votes than they did in 2020. The Trump campaign has put more effort into encouraging Republicans to vote early and by mail this year, a sharp shift from its 2020 messaging against early voting.
In the 27 states for which Catalyst has comparable data, registered Democrats cast 37% of pre-election votes, compared to 35% for registered Republicans. This is the largest narrowing of the partisan gap since 2020, when registered Democrats held a 12 percentage point lead in the same state at the same point, 42% to 30%.
Voters are registered by party in four of the seven key states likely to decide the presidential election, and in each state Republicans accounted for a larger share of the pre-election vote than they did at the same time four years ago. is also getting bigger. . Democratic support has decreased overall in these states compared to 2020.
In Arizona, 41% of voters before the election were Republicans, up 4 points from 2020. The Democratic Party’s share is down 3 percentage points from 33% four years ago.
The Republican share in Nevada increased by just 1 point from 2020 to 37%, but the Democratic share is down from four years ago, from 38% at this point in 2020 to 34% now. It becomes.
In North Carolina, where President Trump rallied with his supporters on the final day of the campaign, Republicans accounted for 33% of pre-election votes (compared to 31% in 2020), while Democrats accounted for 32%, which was a lower share for their own party. It decreased by 3 points. 4 years ago.
And in critical Pennsylvania, Republicans accounted for 33% of pre-election votes, up 10 points from 2020, while Democrats accounted for 56%, down 10 points.
Even though Republicans have increased their share of the pre-election electorate so far compared to four years ago, a recent CNN poll shows that Republicans have already voted, including in every battleground state except Nevada. Vice President Kamala Harris is generally in the lead among voters who have done so. .
Gender disparity remains large, but has narrowed slightly since 2020
In the seven most competitive states, the gender gap appears to be similar to early voting in 2020 and 2022.
Overall, about 1.8 million more women than men vote early in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Catalyst data. However, the gap has narrowed compared to the same point four years ago. This is both due to fewer people voting early overall as well as a slight narrowing of the percentage gap.
Georgia has the most pronounced gender disparity, with women accounting for 56% of early voting in the Peach State and men voting 44%. In Arizona, 52% of early votes were cast by women and 46% by men. In North Carolina, 56% of early voters were women and 44% were men.
Nevada had the closest gender gap, with 51% of early votes cast by women compared to 47% by men.
In Pennsylvania, the likely deciding state, women make up 56% of early voters. At the same point in 2022 and 2020, women accounted for 57% of pre-election ballots.
This story has been updated with additional information.
