The world’s most accurate economist has revealed who he expects to win the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
Christophe Barrault, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, shared his predictions as the race between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump continues to be tight, with eight days left until Election Day.
“Considering a variety of indicators including betting markets, polls, election modeller projections, and financial markets, the most likely outcomes at this time are: (1) #Trump wins (2) #Republican. A landslide victory,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter) Monday morning.
Mr Barrow, 38, included screenshots of charts from election betting platform Polymarket and regulated exchange and prediction market Kalsi.
Polymarket’s approval rating was 48% if Republicans controlled the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives, while Mr. Carsi’s approval rating was 44% if the Republicans won.
Mr. Barrow has been named the top forecaster of the U.S. economy by Bloomberg in 11 of the past 12 years. It also took the top spot in the quarterly ranking for Q3 2024.
A French economist said the most likely outcome of November’s election is for Trump to win the presidency and Republicans to take control of the Senate. But he believes there could be chaos in the House.
His forecasts are based on collecting economic, financial, and satellite data, finding important signals from backtesting, and using many models to explore predictions and risks. In the lead-up to the U.S. election, Barrow is focusing on a few voting markets with the most users.
“His secret sauce doesn’t lie in his personal opinions or high-level views,” Business Insider reported on Saturday.
“When I asked ‘why’ he expected something to change, he laughed and said it was the output of the model.”
Barrow is at least the second expert considered the best in the field to predict a Trump victory.
“My gut says Donald Trump,” pollster and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver wrote in a guest essay for the New York Times on Wednesday.
Silver began his article by stressing that his predictive model essentially shows the race between Harris and Trump as a 50-50 race, and that it could easily go either way.
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“I don’t think any value should be placed on anyone’s guts, including mine,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, Alan Lichtman, a historian known as the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections for accurately predicting nine of the past 10 elections, announced his candidacy for Harris in late September.
Unlike Mr. Barrow and Mr. Silver, who focus on changes in models, Mr. Lichtman based his predictions on the 13 keys to the White House, determined by true and false answers rather than polls or pundits.
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