The Republican Party’s Post-Election Challenge: Converting Trump Voters into Full-Fledged Republicans: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News political team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s issue, our national political correspondents explain why the Republican Party can’t count on Donald Trump’s coalition in the future. Additionally, Republican senators are increasingly skeptical of the next president’s choice to lead the Pentagon.

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Republicans’ post-election challenge: Converting Trump voters into full-fledged Republicans

Written by Steve Kornacki

Despite its success, the election revealed challenges ahead for the Republican Party. That is, the “Trump coalition” and the “Republican coalition” are not exactly the same.

President-elect Donald Trump wins swing states and national popular vote by further increasing support among white, blue-collar voters and gaining significant new support from non-white, young, and first-time voters ensured.

But in the five battleground districts where Senate races were also held, all of the Republican candidates received far fewer votes than Trump, enough for the party to lose four of them (and nearly all five). . Down-ballot races typically receive fewer total votes, but the margin was significantly worse for Republicans than for Democratic Senate candidates.

Certainly individual candidates and campaign dynamics can explain some of this. In Arizona, for example, Republican Kali Lake’s unpopularity clearly gave Democrat Ruben Gallego more support, and he actually won more votes than Vice President Kamala Harris, the party leader. did.

But taken as a whole, the overall pattern is striking, especially given recent history. In the past two presidential elections combined, only one state produced a divided result between the White House and the Senate. That was the case in Maine in 2020, when voters supported Democrat Joe Biden for president while reelecting Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

There are likely several factors at play here, but two stand out as potentially long-term problems for Republicans.

The first includes voters who were willing to vote for Trump but did not vote in any other race. There is some evidence for this. My colleague Scott Brand said that in Washoe County, Nevada, the state’s second-largest county, 6.6% of Trump voters would either abandon the Senate race or support a third-party candidate. (or using the state’s own “none candidate” option). ). Meanwhile, 4.9% of Harris voters did the same.

While this accounts for only a small portion of the Republican decline in Nevada, it is a result consistent with the characteristics of this year’s NBC News poll. We showed a 15-point advantage among those who did not vote in 2020, who are less interested in elections and are disproportionately young, non-white, and male. I found that Trump does the best job on the other hand. A significant number of these people may have ended up becoming “Trump only” voters, raising questions about whether the Republican Party will be able to convert them into full-fledged Republican voters in the future when Trump is not on the ballot. is occurring.

Another factor Republicans need to address involves defectors from the Democratic Party, Democratic voters who have traditionally essentially taken exception to Trump.

This appears to have worked in Wisconsin, where Mr. Trump won by about 30,000 votes, even though Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was reelected by a nearly identical margin. The decline in support from Mr. Trump to his party’s Senate candidate, Eric Hovde, was most pronounced in rural, blue-collar counties, many of which had been Democratic territory until Mr. Trump’s rise. Here, Mr. Trump further expanded his support, which was key to his statewide victory, but the gains did not translate into votes.

Republicans will have to find a way to do that without Trump in the future.

Trump’s pick for defense secretary is in jeopardy in the Senate

Written by Courtney Cube, Frank Thorpe V, Ryan Nobles, Garrett Haak

Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Pentagon, has become increasingly concerned by Senate Republicans over reports of his alleged drinking and treatment of women.

Six, and possibly more, Senate Republicans have now expressed discomfort with supporting Hegseth to lead the Pentagon, amid new revelations about the former Fox News anchor’s past. Three Republican officials with direct knowledge of his nomination process told NBC News. . Given that Republicans hold a slim majority in the Senate in the next Congress, Hegseth would only lose three Republican votes, assuming all Democrats vote against him.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, has not committed to supporting Hegseth’s nomination and has grilled him over reports of his alcohol abuse, abuse of women and allegations of financial mismanagement. He said he intended to do so.

“We’re going to have a really frank and thorough conversation,” Ernst said of Hegseth’s nomination process.

Hegseth, an Army National Guard veteran, was accused of sexually assaulting a woman in California in 2017, according to a police report released after President Trump announced he would nominate the former Fox host to be secretary of defense. . Hegseth was not charged and paid an undisclosed amount as part of a settlement with the woman, but he denied the woman’s claims, saying the encounter was consensual.

Separately, NBC News reported Tuesday that Hegseth’s drinking has caused concern among his colleagues at Fox News, according to 10 current and former Fox employees. Two of them said Hegseth smelled of alcohol more than a dozen times before going on air. Mr. Hegseth did not respond to requests for comment about the allegations on Capitol Hill Tuesday night.

The initial allegations against Hegseth last month did not appear to jeopardize his nomination. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi), chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said he expected Mr. Heges to be confirmed after his first meeting on Capitol Hill last month. But on Tuesday, after a series of reports about Hegseth’s past and before NBC News reported on the drinking allegations on Fox News, Wicker took a more cautious stance.

“I think some of our members have questions, and we’re looking for answers,” Wicker said.

Read more →

🚨 Meanwhile… Sheriff Chad Chronister, President Trump’s pick to be the next head of the Drug Enforcement Administration in Hillsborough County, Florida, withdrew from consideration on Tuesday. Read more →

That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

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