Doug Greenberg, ESPN
With Baltimore needing a win to win the AFC North and the Cleveland Browns having several key players waiting in the wings, the Ravens are a 20-point favorite for Saturday’s divisional game as of Friday afternoon on ESPN BET. There is.
This is the largest spread in Ravens history and the largest in the NFL since 2021, when the Arizona Cardinals (-20) defeated the Houston Texans 31-5 in Week 7.
Baltimore is guaranteed a district title and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs with a win on Saturday, while Cleveland is completely out of postseason contention and Bailey Zappe is expected to start at quarterback. The Browns excluded running backs Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong, tight end David Njoku and cornerback Denzel Ward from this contest.
The Ravens started as 18.5 favorites to win on ESPN BET (some sportsbooks start at -17.5) but skyrocketed to -20 following Thursday’s news of Zappe. While the majority of retail bettors are favoring Cleveland based on ticket count, many big-money bettors appear to be favoring Baltimore, with BetMGM reporting that 53% of spread handles are favorites. are. The sportsbook characterized it to ESPN as “good action in both directions with a big spread.”
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Over the past 30 seasons, favorites with at least 20 points have gone just 3-6 against the spread, but they’ve covered that in the past two seasons. According to ESPN Research, the NFL hasn’t lost by more than 18 points since 1977, and if Baltimore loses in straight sets at -20, it would tie the record for the biggest upset in the Super Bowl era.
ESPN BET lists the Ravens as -8,000 favorites to win the AFC North, while the Pittsburgh Steelers, who will win the division with a win against the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday and a loss to Baltimore, are listed as +2,200. As of Sunday, the Steelers held most of the bets and money to win the AFC North game at their sportsbooks.
If Pittsburgh loses in Saturday’s other AFC North game, it would open the door to the playoffs for the Bengals. They need that win and losses from the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins to qualify. ESPN BET, which lists its odds at +1100, says it has been the most popular choice in that market by stake and handle over the past two weeks.
