Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six Newsletter!
This probably doesn’t need to be said, but the playoffs start this weekend, and while I’ll be talking about more than just the playoffs in this newsletter at some point, today isn’t that day. With 48 hours until the NFL postseason begins, we’re all about the playoffs today. In addition to ranking all the underdogs based on their likelihood of pulling off an upset this weekend, Pete Prisco will be combing through all 13 playoff games from the Wild Card round to the Super Bowl to make his selections.
We’re also going to rank all the coaching staffs going into the playoffs, and while we’re at it, we’ll probably rank all the coaching staff vacancies.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for your newsletter, or to someone you met at the grocery store. That also works. Simply click here to sign up.
1. Ranking the NFL playoff teams most likely to pull off an upset during Wild Card Weekend
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Over the past four years, a total of eight upsets have occurred during the wild-card round. That means there have been an average of two upsets per year since the NFL expanded the playoffs from 12 to 14 teams in 2020. What this means is that an upset or two is likely this weekend, so Jared Dubin ranks the underdogs most likely to upset the playoffs with a win this weekend.
1. Commander (+3), Buccaneers. “The Buccaneers can score with anyone, and so can the Commanders. Tampa Bay’s defense allows just about everyone to move the ball freely, and the way Washington played late in the season (i.e. Jayden Daniels scoring) It’s a dangerous way to live. ”
2. Rams (+1.5) vs. Vikings. “The Rams have the advantage of playing this game at home, so even though they’re playing the Vikings, who are 14-3, they have a better chance than they thought.” It’s even easier to imagine them pulling off an upset when you factor in the fact that they beat the Vikings in 2019.
3. Packers (+4.5) against the Eagles. “Green Bay probably had the edge over Philadelphia in Week 1 when the Eagles won 34-29 in Brazil. If Jordan Love can stay healthy and get through the game, the Packers could pull off the upset this time. Maybe.”
If you would like to check out Dubin’s complete rankings, Be sure to click here.
2. Prisco selects all 13 playoff games and crowns Super Bowl winner
No one loves upsets more than Pete Prisco, so it’s only fitting that we ranked the most likely upsets in the wild card round. He just announced all his candidates for a full spot in the NFL playoffs, and he has quite a few upsets there. And just to make sure we’re all on the same page, we announced Prisco’s wild card pick yesterday, and so far today he’s been picked for all 13 playoff games.
Check out his biggest upsets in each round.
wild card game
(7) Packers vs. (2) Eagles (5) Rams vs. (4) Vikings
division game
(7) Packers vs. (1) Lions
conference title game
(7) Packers vs. (3) Buccaneers (2) Bills vs. (1) Chiefs
That’s right, Prisco has earned the No. 7 seed for the Super Bowl. Prisco is trying to ignore that record and send the Packers to the Super Bowl after going 1-7 in the postseason since the NFL added a No. 7 seed in 2020. He was also the first Bills to beat the Chiefs in the postseason with Josh Allen.
So who is Prisco helping win Super Bowl LIX?
Bills over Packers. “Before the season, I picked Green Bay to win. I flipped out. I think MVP (Josh Allen) will ride that wave and win it all and the Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl.” ”
If that happens, the city of Buffalo will not be able to host the event on February 10th.
We’ve only introduced six of Prisco’s picks for the playoffs. If you would like to see all 13 items, please take a look. Check out his full statement here.
3. Ranking the 10 most important players in the postseason (other than quarterbacks)
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rear Ranking playoff quarterbacks on Wednesdaytoday we thought we’d switch things up and rank the best non-quarterbacks in the postseason. Having a good quarterback can get you far in the playoffs, but it also helps if that QB helps.
Garrett Podell ranks the top 10 most important non-quarterback players. Check out his top five below.
1. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley. “Close your eyes. When you think of the 14-3 Philadelphia Eagles, what comes to mind? For many, Saquon Barkley, one of the NFL’s leading rushers, and Philadelphia’s star-studded… Barkley is obviously having a special year. He’s just the ninth player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season. ”
2. Ravens RB Derrick Henry. “Yes, he’s 30 years old, but Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry still gets it. His 1,921 rushing yards are the most in NFL history in a season by a player 30 or older. He co-led the NFL in touchdowns with 16, setting a Ravens single-season record, and his breakaway speed is still there. ”
3. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. “How great is Justin Jefferson? Well, he’s averaging more receiving yards per game (96.5) than any player in NFL history, and he’s averaging more receiving yards per game than any player in NFL history (96.5), making journeyman Sam Darnold like a franchise quarterback.” I’m showing you.”
4. Lions RB Jahmil Gibbs. “In 2024, no one was better at finding the end zone than Detroit Lions second-year running back Jahmil Gibbs. His 20 scrimmage touchdowns led the entire NFL and broke a franchise record. Ta.”
5. Chiefs DT Chris Jones. “For years, the Chiefs have been buoyed by quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ aerial brilliance, but that’s no longer the case. In 2024, Kansas City will have the 15th-ranked scoring offense (22.6 points per game). The biggest driving force behind the top five defense (19.2) is All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones.
If you would like to see Garrett’s full rankings, Be sure to click here.
4. Top playoff coaching staffs: Lions aim for first place with wins over Chiefs and Ravens
When it comes to the NFL playoffs, it’s not surprising to see games where the two teams are evenly matched on the field, with the difference coming down to who has the better coaching staff on the sideline. With that in mind, Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com decided to rank the coaching staffs of each team in the playoffs.
Dubin ranked all 14 teams, but we’ll only check out his top two teams here.
Tier 1
1. Lions: HC Dan Campbell, OC Ben Johnson, DC Aaron Glenn
2. Ravens: HC John Harbaugh, OC Todd Monken, DC Zach Orr
3. Chiefs: HC Andy Reid, OC Matt Nagy, DC Steve Spagnuolo
Tier 1 explanation: “These teams are ranked this way because the Chiefs have the weakest individual connection (OC Matt Nagy is the only coordinator of the three that doesn’t call plays), and Orr It’s just my first year as a defensive coordinator.” Johnson and Glenn have been under Campbell for several years, making him perhaps the most sought-after coach on the market when it comes to head coaching interviews. they are good ”
Tier 2
4. Vikings: HC Kevin O’Connell, OC Wes Phillips, DC Brian Flores
5. Rams: HC Sean McVay, OC Mike LaFleur, DC Chris Shula
Tier 2 explanation: “McVay et al. would have been in the first tier if not for persistent problems with fourth-down decision-making, including in the playoffs. Meanwhile, O’Connell’s staff may have had the best coaching.” This season, they got more than expected from an offense led by Sam Darnold, while Flores led one of the most creative defenses in the league.
Dubin ranked all 14 of his playoff coaching staffs. If you want to know where everyone ended up, be sure to check out the following link. Check out his full statement here.
5. Ranking of top coaching jobs and the best candidates for the job.
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There are currently six head coaching vacancies in the NFL, but if there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s that some of those vacancies are far more appealing than others. If you’re wondering which job opening is best for you, you won’t have to wonder anymore because Will Brinson has answered your question.
Brinson ranked all the jobs and here are the results he came up with (he also listed the best candidates for each position, which I added below next to each team) .
1. Bears: Ben Johnson or Mike Vrabel
2. Patriots: Mike Vrabel
3. Jaguars: Ben Johnson or Liam Cohen
4. Raiders: Brian Flores
5. Jets: Rex Ryan
6. Saints: Aaron Glenn
If you want to know why Brinson ranked each team, here’s how. You should check out his full text here. And I have to say that I completely agree with the Saints’ placement in Brinson’s rankings. Not only are they about $70 million over the salary cap, but they only have two months to fix it. Even if that were to happen, there wouldn’t be much room for improvement on a 5-12 roster in 2024.
6. Extra: NFL establishes contingency plan for Vikings vs. Rams
It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, so we’ve put together a recap.
The Vikings-Rams game could be moved to Arizona. The NFL is closely monitoring the situation as wildfires rage in Los Angeles and the Rams are scheduled to host the Vikings on Monday. If the fire worsens or if atmospheric conditions make it impossible to hold the game in Los Angeles, the NFL announced that the Vikings-Rams game will be played at State Farm Stadium in Phoenix. However, the league said it hopes to continue playing games in LA. Learn more about the NFL’s plans here. Tom Brady reached out to Bill Belichick. Brady apparently reached out to his former coach to see if he was interested in coaching the Raiders, but Belichick said no. The Raiders were one of several teams contacted, but Belichick appears to have told everyone he plans to stay at UNC this year. you You can read more about this story here. The Jets and Raiders are targeting the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator for the head coaching job. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo played a key role in Kansas City’s back-to-back Super Bowl championships, but he may not be around for long. Both the Raiders and Jets have requested interviews with Spagnuolo, and it will be interesting to see if those interviews materialize. Click here for the latest coaching interview news and updates. Be sure to follow our coaching tracker here. The Cowboys star predicts Dallas will win the Super Bowl in the 2025 season. The Cowboys are 7-10 in 2024 and have no coach under contract for next season, but Micah Parsons still seems confident they can win a Super Bowl in 2025. ‘Next time I’m going to lift the trophy.’It’s close,” Parsons said on the podcast. That’s a pretty bold prediction. you You can read his full comment here.
