CNN
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President Joe Biden envisioned a “day after” in Gaza, when Hamas is no longer in power following Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar.
But it is equally possible that his death will do nothing to change the tragic realities of the Middle East. In a region where each war only sows bitter seeds for the next, eliminating terrorist masterminds is unlikely to resolve conflicts deeply rooted in history.
But Shinwar’s removal marks a renewal of Washington’s previously frustrated attempts to end the Gaza war, which has caused a humanitarian catastrophe and cast a shadow over Vice President Kamala Harris’ election hopes. This caused a rush to start.
Even if Sinwar lacks the symbolic status or strategic weight of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed earlier in Israel’s purge against its biggest enemy, Hamas suffered a heavy military and psychological blow. I just received it.
No one doubted the blood on Shinwar’s hands. He planned a horrific attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 that killed 1,200 people and led to an Israeli military onslaught in Gaza that killed 42,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinian Authority. His absence may therefore change diplomatic and strategic calculations.
Biden reacted to Sinwar’s death, declaring that justice had been served, while ramping up pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to seize the moment to end the fighting in Gaza. The president immediately called his sometimes estranged Israeli partner. He issued a statement calling for “the day after Hamas loses power in Gaza and a political solution that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians.”
In the United States, Shinwar is seen as a major obstacle to the Biden administration’s failure to broker a ceasefire that would free the remaining hostages in Gaza and alleviate the dire humanitarian crisis. This is only half the story, as U.S. officials have at times suggested that Netanyahu also has an interest in prolonging the war.
But if Mr. Shinwar’s death leads to the collapse of Hamas and an end to its nearly two-decade-long grip on Gaza, it could represent the most stubborn obstacle to U.S. peace efforts, not just during this war but across four administrations. One will be removed. But such a scenario is a long shot, and there is no indication that whoever takes over leadership of Hamas will diminish its mission to annihilate Israel. Many experts believe that a guerrilla operation against the Israeli military is at least as likely as a decision by Hamas to end the conflict.
But in the short term, Biden is seeking to widen the window for the release of the remaining hostages taken in the October 7 attack and ease Gaza’s dire humanitarian crisis. Before news of Shinwar’s death was reported, Washington warned Israel on Wednesday that it should accept more aid to the enclave. More than 1 million people face starvation in the enclave, according to the United Nations, and diseases such as polio are widespread. The White House believes that ending the war in Gaza is a prerequisite to reducing the possibility of a disastrous regional war, which the country fears. And Mr. Biden has a strong personal obligation to finally quell the conflict that could tarnish his legacy and hand it over to his successor in January.
As Biden plots, Netanyahu appears to be keeping his options open. “Whoever lays down his arms and returns the hostages, we will allow him to go out and live,” he said in a speech to Israelis. But he also told the nation: “Dear friends, the war is not over yet.”
“There is no question that this is a crossroads for Israel and the region,” Firas Maqsad, senior director of the Middle East Institute, told Jessica Dean on CNN Max. “This is also a moment of truth for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Is his priority to start de-escalating tensions in Gaza and Lebanon? His aim is really to… Is it about releasing the hostages? Or is there a moment where he wants to reset the situation in the Middle East and rebalance the balance of power, thereby continuing to persecute this war against the Middle East and its proxies? I wonder?”
As was often the case during the war in Gaza, U.S. officials expressed optimism that something significant had changed. CNN’s Kayla Tausche reported that there are hopes that Prime Minister Netanyahu is moving closer to reaching a consensus with Biden. Optimism is a prerequisite for the toughest diplomatic efforts. But the Biden administration has consistently misread Netanyahu’s intentions over the last year, exposing Netanyahu’s optimism as naive and leveraging America’s immense influence over Israel’s chief protector. The prestige of Mr. Biden, who does not want to do so, is being shaken.
Officials will be watching in the coming days to see whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will use Mr. Sinwar’s ouster to defuse the situation and prioritize the return of the hostages. Time and time again, when faced with politically risky choices that could weaken the most ultra-conservative coalition government in Israel’s history, the prime minister has opted for political protection, something that U.S. mediation efforts have failed at. This is one of the reasons.
A decision now to deal with what’s left of Hamas, if it leads to their release, could finally ease the pressure he faces from the families of the hostages in Gaza. But whatever the cost, any choice that does not first involve the complete eradication of Hamas could anger the prime minister’s right-wing government partners.
There is also a philosophical and strategic rift between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Biden over the war. Immediately after the Oct. 7 attacks, Biden appealed to Israel not to repeat the U.S. mistakes of Sept. 11, 2001 by becoming drawn into a long war. Washington officials said their concerns include not only the need to restore security in Israel after Oct. 7, but also the massacre of civilians in Gaza and the impact of Netanyahu’s decisions on vital U.S. interests and regional tinderboxes. , looking at the broader picture.
But Prime Minister Netanyahu has left no doubt that he believes he is fighting a decisive battle for the survival of Israel and the Jewish people, and this view conditions his choices. , and is unlikely to change with Shinwar’s death. This struggle leaves no room for Palestinian self-determination and a commitment to a long-term security agreement with Israel, and the United States and much of the rest of the world are struggling with a wide range of issues related to their roots in the early part of the last century. It is seen as the only way to resolve disputes. .
The closeness of the US election and the unprecedented impact the war has had on US politics have exacerbated the mistrust and tensions between the White House and the Israeli government.
Anger among Arab Americans and progressives over Israel’s attack on Gaza, and Biden’s failure to stop it, could cost Harris the battleground state of Michigan and cede the presidency to Donald Trump. be. That explains why the Democratic candidates were quick to exchange ideas Thursday during a trip to Wisconsin, another battleground state. “This moment presents us with an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza. We must end it in a way that ensures Israel’s security, frees the hostages, and ends suffering in Gaza. “No,” the vice president said. “And the time has come for the Palestinian people to realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination, and for the next day of war to begin without Hamas in power.”
Harris’ comments indicate that she strikes a balance between respecting traditional U.S. foreign policy toward Israel, avoiding anger among moderate and Jewish voters, and recognizing the horrific human cost of Israeli attacks. indicated that he was trying to take Implicitly, her statement also reflected her inability to meaningfully impact a crisis overseas that could end a presidential dream. And as with many of her comments about this war and foreign policy generally, Harris, while expressing laudable aspirations, gave little indication of how they might be reconciled.
A cease-fire agreement late in the campaign would give Ms. Harris, at least in Michigan, a chance to argue that her administration has made a breakthrough that will save Palestinian lives. It’s going to happen. But such is the suffering of Arab Americans who have to watch from afar the horrors of civilians in Gaza, it is questionable how many votes will change at this late stage.
Prime Minister Netanyahu himself is a highly committed figure in the Washington establishment, so it would be no surprise if his calculations were also influenced by the US election campaign in a handful of battleground states.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear to the United States that nuclear or oil facilities will not be targeted in the immediate response to Iran’s latest ballistic missile attack, people familiar with the discussions told CNN this week. If he keeps his promise, some analysts will interpret his restraint as an attempt to avoid alienating Harris, who could become the next president. Otherwise, such an attack could spark a global crisis and ruin Harris’ chances in an election where President Trump has warned that World War III is imminent.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has left little doubt that he supports President Trump, who gave him a blank check during his four years in office. If the former president wins the election, it would effectively deplete any power lame-duck Biden has to deal with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Why would Israeli leaders take steps to strengthen the legacy of the current president, given the promise of more favorable treatment under the country’s 47th president in January?
For Biden, identifying a new day is one thing. Imbuing it with some meaning is another. A ceasefire would be a major accomplishment in the final weeks of a term, but there are few examples in recent years of an administration making significant progress in the Middle East in the final weeks of its term. Former President Bill Clinton worked tirelessly to reach a final status peace agreement, but failed during the two-week Israeli-Palestinian summit in the summer of 2000.
A Harris victory on Nov. 5 would create continuity between the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming White House team. Perhaps this foreshadows the outgoing president’s final victory in his 50 years as a world statesman.
But if there’s one political lesson from the past year, it’s that Washington’s ability to influence recent events in the Middle East is extremely limited, even when it resonates strongly with the country’s divided politics. It means that it is being done.
