Seven major forces shaping the final days of the election: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.

In today’s issue, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray analyzes the most important poll trends that will determine the final stages of the presidential election. Additionally, White House senior correspondent Peter Nicholas examines how Barack Obama’s message is not getting through to hidden target audiences.

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7 major forces shaping the final days of the election

Written by Mark Murray

With only two weeks until Election Day, opinion polls cannot tell us who will win the presidential election. The results were close, especially in 2020, when surveys in previous cycles were far off.

But there is still much we can learn from them. National and battleground state polls reveal several key dynamics defining the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

1. Inflation remains voters’ top concern, but abortion is the biggest motivating issue.

Regardless of the poll, the cost of living consistently ranks as the top concern for voters, usually followed by threats to democracy, immigration, and the economy in general.

But when another question was asked in this month’s NBC News national poll: Is there one issue that motivates you enough to vote for or against a candidate on that issue alone?—Abortion is on the list. rose to the top.

2. Gender inequality is real.

According to the latest NBC News poll, female voters support Harris by 14 points, while Trump wins by 16 points among male voters. This total 30-point gender gap is larger than what exit polls showed in 2016 and 2020.

It’s especially important to pay attention to college-educated white women, who support Harris by a whopping 28 points in an October NBC News poll.

3. Trump gained support among Latino and black voters.

While Harris and the Democratic Party made more gains among college-educated white women, they lost support among Latino voters and, to a lesser extent, black voters.

Which change is larger, especially in key battleground states, could ultimately decide the presidential election.

4. Voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s.

This remains one of the most important factors shaping this election. According to this month’s NBC News poll, President Trump’s past job approval rating (48%) is higher than President Joe Biden’s current job approval rating (43%).

5. Harris is more popular than Trump.

That said, Harris remains more popular than Trump, but the difference between the two depends on polls.

An October NBC News poll showed Harris’ net favorability rating was just 2 points higher than Trump’s (down from 16 points in September). However, the latest Associated Press poll found that Harris is 22 points more popular online.

6. Third-party vote share has become smaller.

When Biden entered the race, polls showed third-party presidential candidates with double-digit support. However, it has now dropped to just 4-5 points.

This could have consequences in a close election, given that Trump won 47% to 48% of the vote in key battleground states in 2016 thanks to significant third-party voting.

7. Voters are divided on whether Harris or Trump should be her replacement.

Among all these storylines, the most important one in the battle between the incumbent vice president (Harris) and the former president (Trump) is who is the candidate to replace him?

An October NBC News poll showed Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, on who can better represent change.

However, more voters (43%) said their greater concern was that Harris would take the same approach as Biden, while more voters (43%) said their greater concern was that President Trump would take the same approach as he did in his first term. Voters (41%) said they would continue.

Obama has a particularly formidable crowd on the campaign trail. It’s a young black man.

Written by Peter Nicholas

TUCSON, Ariz. — If there was a typical Kamala Harris voter, it might look like Charles Johnson, a 23-year-old black college student.

Mr Johnson is informed and politically engaged. He went to hear former President Barack Obama speak at a Democratic campaign rally on the University of Arizona campus on Friday.

However, he is not all that impressed with either Obama, America’s first black president, or Harris, the country’s second president. He says he’s leaning toward voting for Donald Trump.

“The media says he (Trump) is terrible, he’s a racist and he’s going to take us back, but the only people he’s getting support from are black voters,” Johnson said in an interview. “He’s only gaining support among black men.”

Democrats have been shaken by recent polls showing Harris’ support among black voters, especially young black men. Part of Mr. Obama’s task in campaigning for Ms. Harris will be to convince black men like Mr. Johnson that voting for Mr. Trump is a grave mistake. President Obama’s aides say he plans to interview podcasters and various internet personalities with large black followings in the days leading up to the election.

“Black male voters have tremendous respect and admiration for President Obama and will pay attention to his message,” said Joel Benenson, a former Obama campaign pollster. “Implicit in his message is, ‘Just as you have rallied around me, you must rally around her.’ That’s what they receive. That’s a message, and it will be helpful.

But it’s unclear whether Mr. Obama’s target audience is listening. Younger black Americans may have only vague memories of the presidency, which ended nearly eight years ago, and may have never seen much of Obama.

Two rallies in recent days in Tucson and Las Vegas drew thousands of supporters for President Obama, but young black men appeared sparsely in attendance.

When it comes to this distinct segment of the electorate, Mr. Obama may not be the persuasive messenger he once was, some attendees said.

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