When Russian natural gas stopped flowing westward through Ukraine on January 1, it marked the end of an era.
This is also a blow to Russia, and how President Vladimir Putin’s decision to wage all-out war against neighboring Russia is undermining Russia’s ability to use energy supplies as a lever of influence in much of Europe. highlighted.
But this is not the case in Moldova.
Russia is sandwiched between Ukraine and European Union member Romania as part of a concerted effort to undermine the pro-Western government of the small country the Kremlin is seeking to retake, analysts and officials said. , is planning to take advantage of this reduction measure. influence and control.
Moldova has relied on Russian gas to heat its homes and fuel its factories for decades, but in recent years it has diversified its power sources, in part due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. All of Europe is being urged to rethink energy. supplies.
This means that the termination, which resulted from Ukraine’s refusal to extend a transportation contract with Russian state-run gas giant Gazprom, does not have a significant immediate impact on most regions of the country. Four days after gas stopped flowing, most homes in Moldova were still warm and had lights on.
Transdniester is part of a rebel territory on the left or east bank of the Dniester River that maintains Russian troops within its territory and has administered its own government with Russian support. The Soviet Union collapsed.
The power outage has left many of the region’s 450,000 people shivering inside their homes, wearing thick clothing and turning on electric stoves. De facto government officials said they had forced the closure of all industrial enterprises except food producers.
stir up discontent
Russia may be aiming to take advantage of the situation to exacerbate tensions between the Moldovan government and Transdniestrian authorities and civilian population, as well as to stoke dissatisfaction with rising prices across the country.
Outside of the breakaway region, Moldova until recently got 80% of its electricity from Transdniester’s Kurucugan power plant, which is fueled by Russian gas. Currently, the power plant is partially fueled by imported coal. Moldova is expected to start importing electricity from Romania this year, but prices are likely to be higher.
Russia could supply gas to Moldova through the TurkStream pipeline in the Black Sea, de-escalating the crisis in Transdniester and supplying Kurucugan. Moldovan officials, who declared a 60-day state of emergency when it became clear that Gazprom would cut off gas supplies on January 1, expressed surprise that Gazprom had not asked for TurkStream to continue shipping. It is being
“Russia is clearly participating not only to put pressure on Ukraine, Europe and Moldova,” said William Hill, a former U.S. ambassador who served in Moldova for many years. “But they are hanging Transdniester out to dry, which really surprises everyone.”
“It’s amazing what the Russians have done to their agents for 30 years on the left bank of the Dniester,” Hill said. “People will remember this. It’s freezing out there.”
The invasion of Ukraine brought the de facto authorities of Transdniester closer to the central government in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova. The cold treatment the region has received so far from Russia could backfire and accelerate this process.
But the Russian government is also working hard to shift the blame to the pro-Western government, and Transdniester’s leadership appears to be on the same page, with Chisinau’s offer of help including generators, humanitarian aid and essential supplies. is refusing.
Former Latvian parliamentarian Maria Golubeva, a fellow at the center, said: “Russian state propaganda is blaming Moldova and its government and painting an apocalyptic scenario for the region weeks before the end of gas shipments.” “We started spreading the message.” Contributed to European Policy Analysis, a think tank in Washington.
Strengthening propaganda
He told RFE/RL that the propaganda intensified around January 1, adding that “the situation will turn into a vicious cycle in the coming weeks as the de facto Transdniestrian authorities ignore Moldova’s solution proposals.” It is expected,” he added.
On January 2, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said regarding supplies to Europe more broadly, “The responsibility for Russia’s gas supply disruption lies entirely with the United States, the puppet Kiev regime, and Ukraine’s European supporters.” ” without any evidence.
The closure comes amid ongoing political tension in Moldova, with several months of winter left and parliamentary elections scheduled for the fall. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu was re-elected in November after a campaign marked by her government’s condemnation of active Russian interference. In a referendum on Moldova’s possible further integration into the European Union, the pro-EU side narrowly won.
Oana Popescu-Zamfir, director of the Romania-based think tank Global Focus Center and associate fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the Kremlin was clearly keeping an eye on the parliamentary elections.
Mr. Sandu’s ruling party is “not in a better position on this issue than it was in the presidential election or the EU referendum, so for Russia, just a little bit of pressure could be enough to actually push Russia into losing territory.” It’s an election,” she told RFE/RL in a phone interview.
Moldova could buy gas in advance and have it supplied from the European market, but the price would be “much higher” than what it paid Gazprom, Popescu Zamfir said.
“So Russia’s strategy seems to be to not spend all the budget (on energy) on things related to economic development in general, but to get through the winter,” she said. “And as we get closer to the election, inflation will rise further and prices will rise even more than they are now, which is quite high.”
“It’s definitely a strategy that will work” even without sufficient aid from the West, she said.
RFE/RL’s Moldova Service contributed to this report.
