Russia has cut off the last gas line to Europe. Here’s why: NPR

MOSCOW — On the morning of January 1, Russia shipped the last three cubic meters of natural gas directly to Europe, bringing benefits to every nation and household through the darkest winter of the Cold War era. It brought an end to decades of trade. 21st century.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unraveled all of that.

After Russia tampered with gas supplies to Europe in 2022 in response to Western sanctions, European economies turned to Russian gas amid concerns that they were trading in cheap energy at the expense of security. There was a rush to reduce dependence on

The Yamal-Europe pipeline, which ran through Belarus to Poland, was soon shut down. Two other ships supplying power to Germany, Nord Stream and Nord Stream II, were destroyed by saboteurs later that year under circumstances that are still unclear. All that was left was the pipeline, named Druzhba (Russian for “friendship”), which ran through Ukraine among other things. It is the legacy of a less divided Europe that no longer exists.

Here’s what you need to know about gas shutoffs.

Where is the gas crisis most severe?

For now, the crisis is concentrated in a region called Transnistria, located on the eastern edge of the former Soviet republic of Moldova. This region is part of a territory of approximately 360,000 people that borders Ukraine, which declared independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since then, it has been under Russian protection, including Russian peacekeepers.

Transnistria’s economy has always survived thanks to cheap Russian gas, but energy-related problems have been cascading since gas supply cuts in the new year. Residents have no heat or hot water. Almost all factories have ceased operations. Schools and residential buildings have also become colder, and residents have been told to wear warm clothing or collect firewood from nearby forests.

The region’s major power plants have switched from gas to coal to maintain service, but supplies are limited. Meanwhile, the use of portable electric heaters is putting undue stress on the power grid, with more than 100 fires reported every day. As a result, local self-proclaimed authorities are gradually introducing rolling blackouts in the hope of avoiding a complete blackout.

Why did Ukraine allow Russia to export gas through its territory even though it was at war?

Ukraine continued to honor a five-year pre-invasion agreement to export Russian gas through its territory to central Europe, with Russian energy giant Gazprom raking in the revenue and the Ukrainian government collecting transit fees. It ended on January 1st. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declared the deal tantamount to blood money and vowed not to continue. Kiev is celebrating the end of the transport agreement as a major blow to Russia’s economy and its war machine.

“When President Putin became President of Russia more than 25 years ago, the annual volume of gas transported through Ukraine to Europe totaled more than 130 billion cubic meters,” President Zelenskiy wrote on social platform X. It was Moscow’s greatest defeat. ”

Does this mean Europe will freeze this winter?

No, Ukraine has long indicated that it would not renew its transit agreement with Moscow as long as the war continues. Most of Europe had already withdrawn from Russian gas or had come up with alternative solutions, including importing American liquefied natural gas.

However, some European countries have bitter feelings about the phase-out of Russian gas. European Union member Slovakia, in particular, has accused Kiev of “sabotage” and threatened to punish Ukraine because of its loss of transit fees under the Russia-Ukraine deal.

Even more vulnerable? Moldova has its own ambitions to join the EU.

Why is Moldova so vulnerable?

Gas exports have long been a tool of Russian influence in Moldova, especially at a time when the capital Chisinau’s government has been pushing an explicitly pro-Western course.

There are also signs that politics are starting to move again.

Even before the gas transport agreement with Ukraine ended, Russia’s Gazprom announced it would halt exports to Moldova over about $700 million in unpaid gas supplies, a charge that Moldova disputes.

Moldova had already taken steps to diversify its energy options, including importing gas and electricity from neighboring Romania, but the breakaway region of Transnistria leaves it at risk on several fronts. There is.

Transnistria’s main power plants still supply electricity to important areas in the rest of Moldova.

The Moldovan government has also publicly accused Russia of “blackmail”. The paper argues that the Kremlin hopes that the energy crisis and the resulting humanitarian impact in Transnistria will undermine Moldova’s pro-Western policies when Moldova holds parliamentary elections later this year. The Kremlin denies the accusations.

What does Russia say?

Russia’s Gazprom blamed Ukraine for its decision not to renew the transport agreement, saying in a statement that Ukraine lacked the “technical and legal means” to supply gas to European customers. Energy giants also continue to argue that Moldova’s outstanding debts make it impossible to supply the country through other roundabout routes, such as the Russia-Turkey pipeline under the Black Sea.

But the Russian Foreign Ministry has more explicitly promoted the long-standing Russian conspiracy theory that the United States orchestrated the whole thing at the expense of Europe and Russia.

“The main beneficiary of the repartition of the Old World energy market is the United States, the main sponsor of the Ukraine crisis,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on social media.

“In turn, other once economically successful and independent countries in the European Union will be forced to pay the price for American protection.”