Getty ImagesTwo months before President Donald Trump returns to the White House, US President Joe Biden’s administration and Russia have made separate but significant moves aimed at influencing the outcome of the Ukraine war in the coming days. went.
There is an atmosphere in which Russia will maximize its interests and abandon the no-crossing lines that Biden has long maintained before President Trump seeks to make good on his claims to end the war within 24 hours.
Ukraine has already acted on Biden’s decision to have Kiev fire its first long-range Atakum missile deep into Russian territory. Mr Biden also promised to send anti-personnel mines as part of new military aid worth nearly $300m (£239m) as Kiev struggles to hold onto territory in the east.
What appears to have prompted Biden’s change of heart was the arrival of thousands of North Koreans sent to the front lines, which the United States views as a “massive escalation.”
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin further escalated tensions by easing the conditions for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. Moscow claims this will “virtually eliminate” battlefield defeats.
One Russian commentator suggested that Putin may see the current situation as an “in-between” moment that gives him a sense of superiority in Ukraine.
South Korean Ministry of Defense (via Getty Images)Earlier this week, Russia began airstrikes against Ukraine for the first time in nearly three months. Several Western embassies closed their doors amid fears of another strike on Wednesday.
“Everything is connected,” says Mykhailo Sams, head of Ukraine’s New Geopolitics Research Network. He claimed that Russia had been stockpiling hundreds of Iskander and Kinzhal missiles for weeks in order to be able to carry out attacks, sending a psychological message ahead of the transfer of power in Washington, DC.
Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, may have been spared Wednesday, but the message got through.
“It’s all about preparing a strong position for the meeting with President Trump, understanding that Russia is not going to compromise and everything depends on (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskiy.” spoke.
Jade McGlynn, head of war studies at King’s College London, agreed: “There’s clearly an effort to maximize their position before Trump.” She is highly skeptical that an agreement with President Putin is possible and that Putin’s ultimate aim is to conquer Russia’s southwestern neighbor.
Ukraine marks 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion on Tuesday, with Russian forces carrying out relentless attacks to seize key positions in eastern Ukraine.
Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center says the mood in Moscow seems to be that it’s only a matter of time before Ukraine gets its hands on it.
But after January, Putin will need to consider other factors, she says. If Putin escalates, the chances of an agreement could deteriorate even further. He will need to be more flexible and open to different options. ”
The Biden administration announced new military aid to Ukraine, including ammunition, missiles, drones and anti-personnel mines.
The US leader’s decision to allow Kiev to fire the Atakum gun into Russian territory was clearly aimed at supporting Kiev, which Trump aides felt as well.
President Trump has said nothing so far, but his nominee for national security adviser, Mike Walz, said: “It’s another rung on the escalation ladder and no one knows what’s going to happen next.” .
He didn’t go as far as some in the Trump campaign. Donald Trump Jr. complained that Biden was trying to “start World War III” before his father returned to the White House.
“There’s one president at a time, and once the next president takes office, he can make his own decisions,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said.
Some Republicans support Biden’s move, but Sen. Lindsey Graham said, “Biden should have helped Ukraine, and he’s playing politics with that.” Ta.
Russia’s response may or may not be an empty threat.
Under the revised nuclear doctrine, the Russian government will now be able to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states supported by nuclear-armed states, and will also be able to use nuclear weapons in the event of a “massive” air attack. You will be able to do it.
Alexander Yermakov of the Russian Council of International Affairs said that rather than a playbook for the use of nuclear weapons, the changes “will serve primarily as a declaration to potential adversaries, with the possibility that such measures may be considered.” It outlines the scenario.”
So, another message from President Putin to the West.
Tatiana Stanovaya believes that she does not want to start World War III, but because she “believes that we have to scare the Western elites and show that they are playing with fire.”
No one knows what will happen after January.
Kremlin insiders have already begun to outline their minimum demands for Trump’s efforts to end the war, and Volodymyr Zelensky has also begun to clarify his position.
Asked in a US television interview what would happen to Ukraine if Washington cut military aid, he clarified: “If it is cut, I think we will lose. Of course, we will remain in any case. We fight. We have the ability to produce, but it’s not enough to win.”
President Putin has insisted that Ukraine must remain neutral for any relationship to work, even though membership in both NATO and the European Union is part of Ukraine’s constitution. There is.
A Reuters report on Wednesday cited Russian officials as saying Putin may be willing to withdraw from a relatively small area of territory, but potentially from much more.
President Zelenskiy submitted a 10-point “resilience plan” to parliament on Tuesday, but the most defiant messages rang out in the Verkhovna Rada.
“Probably, to achieve all the goals of restoring Ukraine to full health, Ukraine will need to outlive someone in Moscow.”
In other words, one day Russia will be without Putin, but Ukraine will not be going anywhere.
Mykhailo Sams says Ukrainians may have many years to wait, but they will never agree to give up Crimea or other Russian-occupied territories.
He believes that what President Zelenskiy would be most prepared to sign is a ceasefire without any commitments. Otherwise, it can lead to internal conflicts, since many will consider it a betrayal.
Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv believes that the key ahead of talks will be to prevent a major Russian breakthrough in the east.
“All we need to do is localize (Russian) advances with things like Atakum and anti-personnel mines, because if Russia succeeds, they will try to dictate their terms.”
Speaking to the BBC from Kharkiv, Jade McGlynn said few Ukrainians believed Mr Trump could forge any kind of lasting peace deal.
He said any settlement that would put Ukraine in a worse position would lead to political turmoil.
“Europe needs to get stronger, and ultimately we know that Scandinavia, the Baltics and Poland alone are not enough,” she said.
