aJoe Biden walked onto the set of The View, one of America’s most popular daytime television shows, and was greeted with “Long Live the Chief,” as the studio audience erupted in wild applause and cheers. “They love you!” co-host Joy Behar said. With a wry smile, the US president replied, “It’s always a good thing when we leave.”
During the ABC program, which was filmed live from a New York studio and showed footage of Biden’s career on digital screens, he insisted he was “at peace” with his decision not to seek re-election in November. But he also claimed he was able to defeat “loser” Donald Trump. Co-host Whoopi Goldberg also criticized the way Democrats reached out to Biden, saying, “I didn’t like the way it was done in public.”
Part of this melancholy may be due to Biden supporters’ belief that, despite all concerns about his age and mental acuity, his career should be seen as an asset rather than a liability. Their case has been strengthened recently by trends that could neutralize three disasters of his presidency.
Inflation has been brought under control. Illegal immigration has stabilized. Violent crime is down. In theory, that’s the perfect recipe for electoral success. However, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris appears unwilling to accept the gift. Far from accepting a role in President Biden’s White House, the 59-year-old bills herself as a change agent who will “turn the page” and usher in “a new way forward.”
said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. She was part of a very successful administration and was chosen by Joe Biden to be vice president and then effectively his successor.
“But she has to pretend that she’s going to blaze a new trail because she can’t be too closely associated with Biden. One internal campaign staffer I know said that Harris and Biden I’m sick of it every time they have to appear together because the visuals strengthen a bond that they don’t want people to have.”
Traveling by motorcade, helicopter and Air Force One, the Guardian accompanied Mr Biden for two days this week. From a daytime TV slot to an event in Ukraine with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to a glitzy reception at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York to a gun safety event with Mr. Harris that had audiences chanting “Thank you, Joe!”
There were reminders of the 81-year-old’s struggles that culminated in a career-ending debate performance against Trump in June. “Welcome to Washington!” he told a room packed with world leaders, diplomats and journalists at the InterContinental New York Berkeley Hotel in New York, New York.
But this same man called for a 21-day temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, pledged $8 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and committed to fighting new firearms threats and increasing school shooting training. He was also a man who was signing executive orders and cementing his legacy. . That legacy will also include economic growth, low unemployment, and a string of legislative victories.
But Biden’s tenure has been overshadowed by inflation. In 2022, prices for gasoline, food, and most other goods and services rose 9%, the highest in 40 years. There are also fears of worsening security and crime on the southern border. His approval rating remains below 40%. But with less than four months left in his term, there are clear signs that the tide is changing.
Inflation has returned to near its pre-pandemic levels, defying recession expectations and giving the Federal Reserve confidence to cut interest rates. Gasoline prices, always a key indicator of dissatisfaction, have been falling in recent months. The national average in August was $3.38 per gallon, about 47 cents lower than at the same time last year.
Border security, which has long been a centerpiece issue for President Trump, is also improving. Mr. Biden moved to halt some asylum applications after the former president forced Republicans in Congress to block border security legislation. The number of people illegally crossing the southern border fell to 56,400 in July, the lowest level in nearly four years, according to government figures.
Additionally, President Trump recently claimed that crimes were coming “out of the attic” under the Biden administration. But this week, statistics released by the FBI show that violent crime in the United States will decline by an estimated 3% in 2023 compared to the previous year, part of a continuing trend since the coronavirus pandemic. Last year saw the largest decline in homicide rates on record, falling 16% below 2020 levels. And contrary to President Trump’s rhetoric, violent crime is currently at its lowest level in nearly 50 years.
But in a polarized political atmosphere, with right-wing media constantly attacking him, Biden is largely unappreciated. Polls showed him lagging far behind Trump when voters were asked which candidate they trusted to handle the economy, immigration and crime. (The lead has narrowed over Mr. Harris).
“Everything is better except that Americans think we’re in a recession, and there are thieves outside the door every night and immigrants trying to eat our pets,” Sabato said. This is insane. A classic example of failure in civics education. That’s the basic thing, and I know people laugh at this word, but it’s definitely the root cause of it all. ”
In this situation, Harris seems to have concluded that no matter what the major economic indicators say, people are not feeling it. She acknowledged that many families struggle with the cost of living, including the cost of groceries and the dream of buying a home. She promised to focus on the basics, such as being able to save for her children’s education, take vacations and buy Christmas presents without financial stress.
Wendy Schiller, a political scientist at Brown University, said real disposable income increased in every state in the country in the last quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. “The problem for Democrats is that inflation has eroded their revenue power until late spring of 2024. Consumers now feel like they can buy things with their paychecks and things are cheaper. Do you?”
He added, “You can tell them things are getting better, but unless they feel that way, it’s not going to help Democrats in November.” There is a disconnect between voters’ impressions of the economy and individual voters’ feelings about the economy. But a set of metrics and a news feed that shifts from negative to positive could certainly help Kamala Harris maintain her campaign message of actually creating a good economy. ”
Harris, the incumbent vice president, will want to avoid a repeat of the fate of Republican President George H.W. Bush in 1992. Economic indicators improved over the spring and summer, but it was too late to avoid defeat by chief strategist Bill Clinton. , James Carville memorably summed it up: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
“When it comes to the economy, people trust their eyes and make decisions based on that,” said Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank. This is the lesson I learned from the presidential campaign: If you have statistics on the one hand and personal experience on the other, it’s not a competition.
Galston, a former policy adviser to Bill Clinton, acknowledged that inflation, immigration and crime are trending in the right direction. “The political damage has already been done, and while this progress is not too little, it is certainly too late,” he added.
“This is especially true for immigration, because to my knowledge there is nothing that President Biden did eight months ago that he couldn’t do four years ago. I’m always mindful of the fact that the issue I ran for president for the first time was immigration.”
Harris accused Trump of undermining a bipartisan Senate compromise that included stricter asylum standards and more Border Patrol agents, immigration judges and asylum workers. She says she plans to take the bill home and sign it into law. President Trump has promised to carry out the largest internal deportation in U.S. history, an operation that could involve detention camps and the National Guard.
As for Biden, in a memo released this week by the White House, he said he intends to “aggressively implement” the rest of his agenda and set out to highlight the accomplishments of Biden and Harris. At the Metropolitan Museum of Art, he gave a speech on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, surrounded by ancient sculptures. Perhaps a moment to consider his own place in history.
“We have seen the impossible become reality,” he told guests, including the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of apartheid in South Africa and war criminals and dictators facing justice and accountability for their human rights abuses. I recalled how I had seen him.
“You’re going to hear very strong arguments from historians about Joe Biden’s failure,” said Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for Politics and Governance Research at the University of Minnesota. He was a better president than he was given credit for at the time. If Kamala Harris loses, one of the major criticisms will be that Democrats were too quick to endorse Biden, and that Harris ran her campaign running away from good news. ”
