Republicans still undecided on abortion issue: From the Politico Desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, a nightly newsletter where the NBC News politics team brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign, the White House and Congress.

In today’s edition, we examine how Republican candidates in the primary races are still struggling to find their message on abortion, plus chief political analyst Chuck Todd questions whether Kamala Harris can continue to win the battle that defines her in the final weeks of the campaign.

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Two years after Roe was decided, abortion remains a key campaign issue for Republicans.

Bridget Bowman, Adam Edelman, Henry J. Gomez

Republicans are still struggling to resolve the issue of abortion in the face of an onslaught from Democrats, and recent comments from Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno, who suggested it’s not an issue “especially for women over 50,” highlight the party’s ongoing challenges.

Republicans are confident they can seize control of the Senate this year thanks to their path through Republican-leaning states that gave them a majority, but some Republicans warn that rhetoric like Moreno’s won’t help them in their bid to defeat Democrat Sherrod Brown, a prominent Ohio senator.

“Woah Bernie,” one Republican running for Senate campaigns texted after the Moreno incident broke this week. “I honestly think Bernie is heading in the right direction, but it’s given Sherrod an opening.”

Democrats have been attacking Republicans nationwide on the issue of abortion. In the seventh Senate race, which is expected to be the most competitive, Democratic campaigns and outside groups aired 33 abortion-related TV ads last week alone, according to ad tracking company AdImpact. The only Republican ad to mention abortion was a Spanish-language ad from an outside group targeting Nevada Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.

Democrats deployed a similar strategy in 2022, unexpectedly retaining control of the Senate despite President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings, and some Republicans warned that they lost key seats that year because of their failure to counter abortion attacks.

Exit polls for 2022 have found Democrats with an 11-point advantage on the issue of abortion. In the latest NBC News national poll, a majority of voters (54%) said Vice President Kamala Harris would do a better job on the issue, while 33% said the same about former President Donald Trump. This was one of the highest scores Harris received across the range of issues tested in the survey.

GOP strategist Gayle Gicho said the challenge for Republicans is “not to fall into the same trap that happened in 2022. And what happened in 2022 is the Republican Party did nothing on the abortion issue. Nothing.”

Republican Senate candidates have so far been reluctant to speak out on the issue.

Only three of the candidates running for the targeted Senate seats — Sam Brown of Nevada, Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania and Larry Hogan of Maryland — have launched TV ads that reference abortion as captured by AdImpact. In each ad, the candidates say they do not support a federal ban on abortion. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida also launched an ad vowing to protect in vitro fertilization.

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Is Kamala Harris at her peak?

Chuck Todd

Depending on what numbers you pick, it’s safe to say the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is somewhere between a tie and Harris leading. Since their one and only debate, no poll has been released that shows anything other than Harris’ improvement and Trump’s challenges, or even one with Trump in the lead.

In particular, Ms. Harris closed the gap on Mr. Trump’s advantages on the key issues of the economy and the border, where Mr. Trump is still seen as ahead, but his lead over Ms. Harris is smaller than it was when voters were comparing Mr. Trump to President Joe Biden.

Let’s look at the poll I trust most: the NBC News poll, overseen and conducted by a bipartisan team led by Republican Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies and Democrat Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research. Harris also flipped some of the questions on personal attributes that would be negative for Biden, such as whether he is capable of being president and whether he is mentally and physically capable of the job.

Then there’s the issue of abortion rights, which has favored Biden in polls against Trump but seems to be a much bigger advantage for Harris. For example, an NBC News poll showed Harris leading by more than 40 percentage points among college-educated white women, a demographic Biden won in 2020, but by a much smaller margin.

Now, it’s not all a win for Harris. One big shift in Trump’s base from 2016 to 2020, and again this time, is with Hispanic voters. In 2016, Trump lost the Hispanic vote by nearly 40 points, according to exit polls. In 2020, he lost the demographic by just over 30 points. And this new NBC poll gives Harris a lead of just under 20 points.

At this point, it’s safe to say we have a pretty good idea of ​​how the vote will be broken down demographically, but what’s unclear is how much turnout there will be among each group.

For much of this short campaign, I would have described it as “Trump will lose, but Trump is losing.” But now, I would describe it as a jump ball, with Harris having a slight advantage simply because she still has room to grow.

But the battle to define Harris among the remaining undecideds continues. For now, Harris has won the battle to define herself. Can she keep it up for another five weeks?

Continue reading Chuck →

That’s all from the Politics Department. If you have any comments (what you liked, what you didn’t like, etc.), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

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