Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporters Ben Camisar and Bridget Bowman break down the latest fundraising trends in the weeks after Election Day. Additionally, Chief Political Analyst Chuck Todd explains why there isn’t a huge difference between the popular vote and Electoral College results.
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Republican donors pour billions of cash into pro-Trump super PACs before Election Day
Written by Ben Kamisar
As Vice President Kamala Harris’ fundraising efforts break records, Republican megadonors are opening up their checkbooks to support former President Donald Trump and other Republicans, worrying about the number of zeros. It is published without any disclosure.
A major pro-Trump super PAC raised more than $200 million from major Republican donors during the third fundraising quarter, according to new campaign finance filings. Notable names include Miriam Adelson (wife of Dallas Mavericks owner and late casino executive Sheldon Adelson), Tesla CEO Elon Musk, venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, and former Marvel chairman Ike.・Perlmutter and shipping magnate Richard Uihlein are mentioned.
Adelson contributed $95 million to Preserve America, a super PAC that she funded almost entirely after donating $5 million to the group last quarter. Preserve America has already spent $97 million on television and digital ads criticizing Harris.
Musk, who has increased his public political presence in recent weeks as a full-throated supporter of Trump, has appeared before America PAC, a group that has spent more than $100 million supporting Trump. Donated $75 million in the quarter.
Another pro-Trump group, Right for America, used millions of dollars in checks from Mr. Andreessen, Mr. Horowitz, Mr. Perlmutter and Mr. Perlmutter’s wife, Lara, to collect $2,800 from July to September. Raised $1,000.
Mr. Uihlein, one of the most prolific Republican donors of the past decade, gave an additional $49 million to his outside group, Restoration PAC. Super PACs have spent millions not only on presidential campaigns, but also on campaigns for the Wisconsin Senate and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
The big checks are just one piece of the campaign finance puzzle, as some groups filed only quarterly disclosures by Tuesday’s deadline. Two of the presidential campaign’s most prominent super PACs, pro-Trump MAGA Inc. and pro-Harris Future Forward, are due to report by the monthly disclosure deadline of Sunday, the same day Harris and Trump file their campaigns. We do not plan to submit. September fundraising activity report.
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💰Fundraising Details: Meanwhile, in the battle for Congress, Democrats maintain a breakneck fundraising pace.
From July to September, Democratic candidates raised more than twice as much money on average as Republican candidates in Senate and House elections, according to a report by Bridget Bowman and Amy Walter at Cook Political Report. They report that interest rates are competitive. Democrats outperformed Republicans in all 11 competitive races in the Senate and in all but one of 26 “toss-up” races in the House.
In some cases, the gap was even wider. Three Democratic candidates for the Senate, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Rep. Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, won more than four times as many votes as their Republican opponents during this period. Raised funds.
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Republicans have been sounding the alarm about candidate fundraising, especially since Harris became the Democratic Party’s de facto presidential nominee. And they are seeking to counter the Democratic Party’s financial advantage by using a variety of tools to stretch candidates’ limited resources.
Read more about Bridget →
Why there won’t be a big popular vote this year – the split in the Electoral College
Written by Chuck Todd
Nate Cohn of the New York Times and others have said that the possibility of a sharp divide between the popular vote and the Electoral College, which was a hot topic in the past two presidential elections, may disappear in this election. There are several analyzes that make the case. cycle.
In the latest NBC News poll, pollsters broke down the direct voting test by Trump/Republican core states, Harris/Democrat core states, and even closer states in between. We then compared the results of this cycle to 2020 and 2016.
What’s interesting is how much smaller the Democratic lead in “blue” states will be in 2024 compared to 2020 and 2016. In 2016, Trump lost core Democratic states by 22 points, and in 2020 he lost 24 points. The latest poll showed Trump losing the Democratic core state by just 13 points.
Meanwhile, while Trump’s support has increased slightly in blue states, it has stagnated in red states and battleground states. In 2016, Trump won core Republican states by 18 points, but in 2020 his margin in red states was 16 points. This latest poll also showed it at 16 points. And the difference between the battleground states remained at 1 point all three times, with little variation between the two parties.
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What exactly does this mean? If poll trends hold and Trump moves up the rankings without winning any blue states, the winner of the Electoral College (whoever that is) could carry the popular vote. It increases.
No one knows how President Trump’s blue state arena tour over the next 10 days will affect his support in these states, but one thing is certain: if he wins the popular vote and remains president, It would be a different kind of mission for the president if he won. than what he claims he got in 2016.
Read more about Chuck →
🗞️ Today’s Top News
❌ Disinformation Pipeline: Brandi Zadrozny details the step-by-step process of how Russian propaganda reaches and influences the United States Continue reading → 🗣️ Stick over carrot: President Trump says Harris He said black and Latino voters who support him should undergo a “head check.” This meant that the former president told certain groups that not voting for him was deserving of ridicule, or that he had a mental health problem. It’s part of an ongoing trend of telling people that there is. Continue reading → 📻 Long-time listener, first-time caller: During a wide-ranging live radio town hall in Detroit hosted by the divine Charlamagne, Harris said she was still open to reparations for slavery and that new “When Black People Were Dying” in his hometown condemned President Trump for allegedly sending coronavirus tests to Russia. Continue reading → 🎤 Former FLOTUS sighting: Michelle Obama headlines rally for her bipartisan group ‘When We All Vote’ in Atlanta on October 29 to mobilize first-time voters It’s planned. Continue reading → 🗳️ Early voting update: Virginia’s first two weeks of mail-in and early voting mean early voting gap between Republican and Democratic counties will be smaller in 2024 compared to 2020 suggests that it is possible. Continue reading → ⚖️ Legal Update 1: Georgia judge blocks new state election board rule requiring counties to hand count votes cast on Election Day; Critics said it would cause delays and confusion in reporting results in battleground states. Continue reading → ⚖️ Legal Update 2: Nebraska Supreme Court rules after state election official seeks to withhold voting from felons convicted by Nov. 5. The court ruled that convicted felons can vote. Continue reading → 🤠Heart: Ted Cruz and Colin Allred clash over abortion, transgender athletes and January 6th in the only debate in the Texas Senate race that was more competitive than expected . Read more → Follow the live broadcast from the campaign trail →
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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