The world is on track to be 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.8 degrees Celsius) warmer than it is today, but projected future temperatures could decrease by 0.5 degrees if countries follow through on all their commitments to combat climate change. A United Nations report said Thursday. .
But the report says we are still far from stopping the worst effects of warming, including more severe heatwaves, wildfires, storms and droughts.
Under all but the “most optimistic” scenario, which drastically reduces fossil fuel combustion, the chances of limiting global warming and keeping it within internationally agreed limits are “virtually zero.” ” said the United Nations Environment Programme’s annual emissions gap report. . The goal set by the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit anthropogenic warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. The report says global temperatures have already risen 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit since the mid-1800s, including last year’s record heat, further increasing than previous estimates of 1.1 or 1.2 degrees. It is said that they are doing so.
In fact, global temperatures are on pace to reach 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. But warming could be limited to 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit if countries somehow follow through on everything they promised in the targets they submitted to the United Nations, the report said.
Under an ultra-stringent reduction scenario in which countries reduce their net carbon dioxide emissions to zero after mid-century, there is a 23% chance of keeping temperature rise below the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even in this optimistic scenario, it is far more likely that temperatures will continue to rise to 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the report said.
“The main message is that if we want to reduce temperatures, it’s important to act now and here by 2030,” said the report’s author, economist and chief climate advisor at UNEP’s Copenhagen Climate Center. said editor Ann Olhoff. “If you want 1.5 to survive, it’s now or never.”
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UNEP Director Inger Andersen said that without rapid and dramatic emissions reductions “on a scale and pace never seen before”, “the 1.5 degrees Celsius target will soon be abolished (and less stringent)”. ) will replace the Paris target of well below 2 degrees Celsius.” In the intensive care unit.
Olhoff said Earth is on track to close 1.5 doors in 2029.
“When it comes to climate change, slow wins equal losses,” says Neil Grant, author of Climate Analytics. “So I think we’re in danger of a lost decade.”
One of the problems is that although countries have committed to tackling climate change in the targets set out as part of the Paris Agreement, they are not doing so based on what they say they will do and their existing policies. The authors of the report said there was a huge gap in content.
The world’s 20 richest countries, which are responsible for 77% of carbon pollution in the atmosphere, are failing to meet set emissions reduction targets and are failing to meet individual targets, according to the report. There are only 11 countries.
The report found that emissions cuts strong enough to limit warming to the 1.5 degree goal are more than technically and economically possible. They just haven’t been proposed or implemented.
Bill Hare, a climate scientist and CEO of Climate Analytics, who was not involved in the report, said the report shows that governments are once again sleepwalking toward climate chaos. “It shows that we are doing well,” he said.
Another external scientist, Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said the report confirmed his biggest fears: “We are not making progress and are currently on a 3.1 degree orbit. In other words, there is almost zero uncertainty.
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The calculated values of 3.1 degrees Celsius and 2.6 degrees Celsius are both a tenth of a degree Celsius higher than last year’s UN report, but experts said they were within the range of uncertainty.
The biggest problem is that “we have one year less to reduce emissions and avoid climate catastrophe,” says MIT’s John, who models different warming scenarios based on emissions and national policies.・Mr. Starman said. “The word catastrophe is a strong word and should not be used lightly,” he said, citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest report, which says that 3 degrees of warming would cause serious and irreversible damage. said.
The report focuses on the so-called emissions gap. It is a budget that allows the world to emit billions of tons of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide and methane) and keep temperature increases below 1.5, 1.8 and 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. I’m calculating. Then calculate how much annual emissions would need to be reduced by 2030 to maintain that level.
The world must cut emissions by 42% to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius, and 28% to keep temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius, the report says. Please stop…please!” Said.
According to the report, the world will emit 62.9 billion US tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. This is equivalent to 1,995 US tons of heat-trapping gas per second.
“There is a direct link between rising emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video message released with the report. said. “We’re playing with fire, but we can’t buy any more time. We’re running out of time.”
