aDemocrats were bracing for disaster in statehouses as they watched Kamala Harris lose the White House and Republicans regain full control of Congress. The party holds narrow majorities in several chambers across the country, and some Democrats had predicted that Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election would lead to a red wave in statehouses.
But when the dust settled after Election Day, the state election results showed a far more nuanced picture than Democrats had feared.
Unfortunately, Democrats were unable to gain support in Arizona and New Hampshire, where Republicans expanded their legislative majorities, and lost the governing triumvirate in Michigan and Minnesota.
But other states offered reason for hope. In Pennsylvania, Democrats maintained a one-seat majority, even though Harris and incumbent senators struggled throughout the state. In North Carolina, Democrats ended the Republican legislative majority and reinstated Gov.-elect Josh Stein’s veto power. Perhaps most encouraging for the party is the significant Democratic victory in Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, a newly redrawn and more competitive map leaves the party poised to win a majority in 2026.
The mixed results could help Democrats push back against Republican federal policies at the state level and could provide potential insight into the party’s best electoral strategy as it prepares for a new era of Trump. .
“We must pay attention to what’s happening in our backyard with the same level of enthusiasm as what’s happening in the White House,” said Heather Williams, chair of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC). said. “And that feels true now more than ever.”
Williams said the impact of the state election will be far-reaching. In the wake of Roe v. Wade’s overturn, Democratic lawmakers have already helped protect abortion access in their states, and with Republican oversight of the federal budget, state legislatures will be able to provide critical support for their constituents. It could play a vital role in funding services that lack resources.
These high stakes have made Democrats increasingly aware of the importance of state legislatures, where Republicans have held significant advantages in recent years. According to the DLCC, when Trump first took office in 2016, Republicans held 68 seats compared to 29 for Democrats. After this month’s election, Democrats are expected to control 39 chambers, down from 41 before the election but still a notable improvement since the start of President Trump’s first term.
As Democrats became more focused on state races, outside groups also joined the fight. The States Project, a Democratic-aligned organization, has poured $70 million into this legislative campaign, and SuperPac Progressive Majority has put an additional $45 million into the effort. The funding provided a substantial benefit over the resources of the DLCC, the party’s official state legislative campaign arm, which has set a spending goal of $60 million this cycle.
“It’s not rocket science that money, tactics and messaging are powerful ways to communicate with voters,” said Daniel Squadron, co-founder of The States Project. “We fund candidates and allow them to get off the phone, talk to voters separate from special interests in the state, and treat these campaigns like major league races. .”
Until now, Democratic state legislative candidates have trailed their party’s presidential nominee by several points, but early data shows that the congressional candidate actually outperformed Harris in some key races. is suggested. Squadron says direct interaction with voters and the high quality of many Democratic state legislative candidates this term helped stave off major losses in the polls, even though the party struggled in federal elections. I believe that.
“It was the only way we were able to hold on to the Pennsylvania House when the statewide results were so disappointing. That’s why the North Carolina House supermajority collapsed,” Company said. spoke.
The Democratic Party’s strategy appears to have been particularly effective in Wisconsin, where they won 10 seats in the state House and four seats in the state Senate. Andrew Whitley, executive director of the Wisconsin Senate Democratic Caucus, said he believes a smart candidate who combines a message about the importance of abortion access with hyperlocal issues important to specific districts will win. It was evaluated that the That strategy helped candidates outperform Harris and Sen. Tammy Baldwin in four of the five Senate races tested, according to data provided by Whitley.
“It’s very rare for a state representative at the bottom to outperform Sen. Kamala and Sen. Baldwin,” Whitley said. “They worked hard.”
In the 14th Senate District, which stretches northwest from Madison, Democrat Sarah Kieski appears to have benefited from the failure of some Trump supporters to vote against Republican incumbent Joan Ballweg. . But in the 8th Senate District in suburban Milwaukee and the 30th Senate District in Green Bay, a small but decisive number of voters split the ticket between Mr. Trump and Democratic legislative candidates.
The results suggest Trump’s strategy may not be enough to win over Republican state legislators, opening the door for Democrats in future election cycles. In further evidence of that trend, Democrats were able to capture four Senate seats in states won by Trump on Election Day.
“The MAGA (‘Make America Great Again’) strategy doesn’t work at the state legislative level,” said Leslie Mertes, Forward Majority’s chief strategy officer. “Trump is Trump, and he’s incredibly skilled at what he does, but as we’ve seen time and time again, the Republican Party has a hard time replicating that.”
The next big test for Republicans will come next year in Virginia, where Democrats hope to flip the governor’s mansion and maintain control of both chambers.
“My first task after this election will be to see if Mr. Trump can pursue this strategy,” Martes said. “He would want it to continue his mission.”
Williams and her team are already preparing for 2025 and 2026, when Democrats will have another chance to gain ground in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The 2026 target map is still taking shape, but Williams predicted it would look very similar to this year’s map.
“I feel like we can all look forward to seeing those familiar faces come back,” she said. “They’re a really competitive state and that’s what we’re going to focus on.”
Even though Democrats remain in the minority in Wisconsin’s legislature, Whitley expressed enthusiasm about the results and the path forward. This year, for the first time since 2012, Wisconsin Democrats had the opportunity to run on a competitive map, breaking the Republican Party’s iron grip on the Legislature.
“It’s going to be truly historic,” Whitley said. “Gone are the days when a created majority could override a veto and pass super backwards policies. We’re actually going to have some balance, and we’re just going to have a balanced Congress. Instead, we are trying to realize the Trinity.”
The Democratic Party’s performance in Wisconsin may offer a glimmer of hope to party members still reeling from the news of Trump’s victory and fearful of his chances of winning a second term.
“It’s very easy to get lost in that sense of hopelessness,” Whitley said. “But on the state legislative side, it’s also very easy to be inspired by just ordinary people who are standing up and fighting for their communities.”
This article was amended on November 23, 2024 to show the number of legislative chambers that Democrats controlled in 2016 (29 instead of 31) and the number that Democrats will control after the 2024 elections (39 instead of 38 previously). Fixed. the version said.
