When Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to the president of Azerbaijan for the crash of a damaged airliner over Chechnya, it was an extremely rare, if not unprecedented, event during his 25 years as president. .
Also, the report was incomplete. On December 28, three days after the Embraer 190 crash, President Putin apologized for “the fact that the tragic incident took place in Russian airspace” in a readout of his telephone conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the Kremlin said. said. Thirty-eight of the 67 people on board died in Kazakhstan, across the Caspian Sea from Chechnya.
President Putin has refused to accept Russian responsibility for the crash, saying that multiple evidence suggests that a Russian missile was fired during what Moscow said was a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny. He declined to comment on what might have caused the accident.
The unusual apology and its limited nature illustrate the Kremlin’s struggle to avoid major damage to relations with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and other countries in the region while simultaneously rejecting claims that Russia is responsible. .
“On the one hand, this is probably the first time that President Putin has apologized in real time to a foreign country for Russia’s actions, and not for the historical sins of the previous government, and is a turning point in Russian foreign policy,” said Alexander Baunov, senior researcher. he said. he wrote in a thread on X (formerly Twitter) at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center in Berlin.
“On the one hand, this language avoids a direct admission of responsibility. What we are seeing is an acknowledgment of the incident without an admission of guilt, leaving Baku and its allies frustrated. “It appears that there is,” Baunov wrote. “For Azerbaijan, the lack of accountability in the Kremlin’s statements remains a problem.”
No matter what he and Putin say in private, Aliyev’s public comments were spot on. In an interview aired on December 29, he said the plane’s tail section was badly damaged “by fire from the ground” and accused Russia of trying to “cover up” the cause, saying it should have apologized sooner. suggested that it was. He did not mention his conversation with President Putin.
Aliyev said it was “stupid and dishonest” to attribute the crash to a bird strike or an exploding gas canister on the ship, as claimed by Russian media and officials. He alluded to speculation that Russian authorities may have diverted the damaged airliner to Aktau, Kazakhstan, in hopes of hiding evidence of an external explosion and causing it to crash into the Caspian Sea.
Declining regional influence
He also said Azerbaijan “categorically” rejected Russia’s proposal for the Moscow-based Interstate Aviation Commission to investigate the crash. “The reason is clear: it is a well-known fact that this organization is mostly made up of Russian officials and headed by Russian citizens. We could not fully ensure an element of objectivity here.”
From Putin’s partial and belated apology to the tone and content of Aliyev’s remarks, the exchange appears to highlight Russia’s declining regional influence.
“In Russia’s ‘near abroad’ – countries in parts of the former Soviet Union/occupied territories, which Russia has considered a zone of interest since 1992 – the situation does not look very good,” said Ruth DeArmond, a senior Moscow official. said. he is a lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, wrote in an end-of-year thread on social media site Bluesky.
“The Azerbaijani president’s accusations are bad enough, but this tragedy also focused international attention on why Russia had to defend itself from Ukrainian drones over Chechnya in an embarrassing incident,” DeArmond said. he wrote.
Putin’s focus on the war against Ukraine, his efforts to conquer the country by force, is one of the factors that has reduced the Kremlin’s influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia’s neighbors are not keen on war, but it does give some of them leverage over Moscow.
“Azerbaijan is an important partner in “cleaning” Russian gas, purchasing 30 million pounds (approximately $38 million) worth of monthly production from the north for re-export to Europe as domestic gas. . London-based analyst Mark Galeotti wrote in the Times on December 28: “Kazakhstan wants Putin to help maintain its presence in Syria, and is also an ally with Turkey.” Similarly, Kazakhstan is one of the countries that is most focused on importing goods. After being subject to sanctions, it is secretly re-exported to Russia. ”
The air crash, which occurred weeks after the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has undermined Russia’s reputation as a powerful player abroad and threatens to reduce its footprint in the Middle East.
Galeotti suggested that the plane crash and its aftermath not only tarnished Russia’s image in the region and beyond, but also exposed vulnerabilities that the Kremlin is trying hard to hide.
“President Vladimir Putin is notorious for never apologizing. But after an Azerbaijan Airlines airliner was accidentally shot down on Christmas Day, he came as close to that goal as possible. Although he did not admit it was a missile, he did acknowledge that “the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace,” he wrote. “His unusual frankness reflects that Putin’s position is both strong and fragile and could be threatened by unexpected crises.”
