As I mentioned last week, I hate picking Week 1 NFL games.
But to my surprise, I had a good week.
I’m off to a strong start to the 2024 NFL season, going 8-6-2 against the spread and 10-6 straight up. The unpredictability of the first week is the challenge. The next part is figuring out how realistic Week 1 is.
I hope I’ve done a good job of spotting the fakes here, as I want to maintain a win rate above 50% in two weeks.
The first week wasn’t so bad.
Let’s hope week 2 is even better.
Thursday, 8:15pm ET (Prime Video)
Josh Allen has dominated the Miami Dolphins 11-2 in his career, and this game is no different. It’s always a tough game for the Bills in the heat, but this is a night game. Of course, it’s a short week, but the Bills will play enough defense and Allen will get the win late. He continues to dominate against the Dolphins.
Prediction: Bills 28, Dolphins 24
Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
This will be the Raiders’ second straight road game against a team that rested their home opener. And it’s on the East Coast. It’s going to be a tough road trip for the Raiders. Their offense struggled against the Chargers and will struggle here. The Ravens won’t struggle. Lamar Jackson will play a good game.
Prediction: Ravens 28, Raiders 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
It’s a long road trip for the Chargers in the early hours of the morning, but the Panthers are weak. They had a terrible opener and are missing their best defensive player, defensive tackle Derrick Brown. Their offensive line is really bad. I’d like to see the Chargers win both scrimmages and win on the road.
Prediction: Chargers 26, Panthers 9
Sunday, 1pm ET (Fox, fubo)
This game is between two teams that are coming off two good games last week. The Cowboys are coming off a win over the Browns in their home opener, while the Saints are playing their first game on the road. Dallas’ defense was suffocating against the Browns, and I expect that momentum to continue against the Saints. The Cowboys are 2-0, but it’s a close game.
Prediction: Cowboys 23, Saints 18
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Sunday, 1pm ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a rematch of last season’s playoff game, which the Lions won. In that game, the Buccaneers had a close game, but with injuries in their secondary, it will be a tough battle this time. Still, Baker Mayfield will lead them to victory again. The Lions will win a close game.
Prediction: Lions 30, Buccaneers 27
Sunday, 1pm ET (Fox, fubo)
The Packers will be without Jordan Love and will have Malik Willis in the lineup. This is going to be a real challenge for Matt LaFleur and his coaching staff. The Colts had some big plays on offense against the Texans but gave up a lot of runs. The Packers will rally around their new quarterback but it won’t be enough. The Colts will win on the road.
Prediction: Colts 23, Packers 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars lost to the Dolphins after blowing a 4th quarter lead, while Cleveland got a blowout loss at home to Dallas. Deshaun Watson was awful. The Jaguars defense held Miami back and it will be tough to come back on the road. Expect Jacksonville to pull out a win.
Prediction: Jaguars 24, Browns 19
Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
Both teams came off strong wins in Week 1. The 49ers overpowered a good Jets defense without Christian McCaffrey. Minnesota’s defense played well against New York and I think they’ll play well here too. It’s close. It’s really close, but I think the Vikings will pull the upset.
Prediction: Vikings 22, 49ers 21
Sunday, 1pm ET (Fox, fubo)
This is the first road trip for the Seahawks in a long time, and they’re playing a team that beat the Bengals last week. The Patriots defense was good in that game, but Seattle has issues with their offensive line, and I think that showed up when the Patriots won a low-scoring game because of their defense.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Seahawks 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
These two teams were off to a bad start in their opening week losses. The Jets defense had big issues and the Titans offense was bad. Will Revis needs to get better. The Titans defense was outstanding last week. That defense will carry this game forward and Revis will get the win with a late drive.
Prediction: Titans 23, Jets 20
Sunday, 1pm ET (Fox, fubo)
Both of these teams have lost, and they lost badly. The Giants looked the worst of the two, but they’re on the road now. The Commanders can expect some big plays from Jayden Daniels, but the Giants will bounce back and pull out a win here.
Prediction: Giants 21, Commanders 19
Sunday, 4:05pm ET (Fox, Fubo)
The Cardinals blew a big lead in Buffalo last week and now they have to face a division rival in their home opener. The Rams are playing back-to-back road games, which is always tough, and their offensive line is riddled with injuries. But the Rams have dominated the Cardinals, winning 13 of their last 15 games. Not this time.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Rams 21
Sunday, 4:25pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers are playing back-to-back road games after their defense won last week against the Falcons. That defense will be on the road and will be a tough challenge for Bo Nix, who struggled in the season opener. With Justin Fields at quarterback, it will be a low-scoring game. It’s a close game, but I think Pittsburgh will win.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Broncos 16
Sunday, 4:25pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals lost their season opener to the Patriots, but they’ve always played well against Joe Burrow and the Chiefs. Their offense just doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the Chiefs right now. With the Chiefs now 2-0, it’s exciting to see Patrick Mahomes go up against the speedy new receivers.
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bengals 20
Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans (-6.5)
Sunday, 8:20pm ET (NBC, Fubo)
This will be Caleb Williams’ first road game after a poor start in the win over the Titans. He needs to get better. The Texans were impressive in their road win, but allowed big plays to the Colts. The Bears defense will slow down CJ Stroud, but turnovers will likely cost the Texans the win.
Prediction: Texans 23, Bears 13
Monday, 8:15pm ET (ESPN, Fubo)
The Eagles will have some extra rest after beating Green Bay last Friday. The Falcons were lackluster offensively against the Steelers, but the Eagles ran their offense freely against the Packers. That should continue here. Kirk Cousins will be better than he was a week ago, but it won’t be enough for the Falcons to win.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Falcons 24
