Just when you pick an NFL game and think it might work out, the league reminds you that you’re not thinking.
That happened to me last week. After a solid week 9, week 10 put me in the bathroom. I went 5-9 against the spread and 7-7 straight up. This brings my season ATS record to 69-80-3 and my straight-up record to 89-63.
Now it’s time to get started. It’s hard to know how this year’s league will play out, but I feel like we’ll have a good week. There are a lot of big matches this week and a really great schedule, so I hope that helps turn around the dismal way of picking matches here.
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Sunday, 1pm ET (Try Fox, fubo for free)
The Packers have a week off, and the Bears seem to need it. It has been difficult to score points, and the offensive line is disjointed. How helpful would it be to fire the coordinator? Not enough. The Packers needed a bye to get Jordan Love healthy. He is and it will appear. The Packers take over a struggling Bears team.
Pick: Packers 29, Bears 17
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This has all the makings of an explosion. The Lions are at home with two road wins, while the lackluster Jaguars head into the road with two home losses. The Lions offense struggled last week, but the Jaguars defense is a great way to get back on track. This is ugly.
Picks: Lions 38, Jaguars 10
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
It’s a long journey for the Raiders, but it’s a bye. The Dolphins are playing after a short break from games on the West Coast. It is tough. Miami’s defense was great against the Rams on Monday night, and that will carry over here. But the Raiders hang around.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Raiders 19
Sunday, 1pm ET (Try Fox, fubo for free)
On Monday night, the Rams looked uneven offensively in their loss to the Dolphins. Their lack of speed was exposed. The Patriots seem to be getting better offensively every week thanks to Drake Maye. I hope the Patriots hang around and stay close for this game. It’s really close.
Pick: Rams 24, Patriots 23
Sunday, 1pm ET (Try Fox, fubo for free)
The Saints are coming off an impressive upset win in Darren Rizzi’s first game as interim coach. The Browns suffered a bye. Cleveland has the better defense and will be playing against Derek Carr. Jameis Winston will return to New Orleans to face his former team and will play well enough to win. revenge game.
Designated players: Browns 23, Saints 16
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a big game with the number one spot in the AFC North at stake. The Ravens have long had problems on defense, and that could be an issue this time around. The Steelers are the better defensive team and will likely have a little more control over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense. Both teams scored, but the Steelers won on a Chris Boswell field goal late in the game.
Designated players: Steelers 30, Ravens 27
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Vikings are on the road for the second straight week and didn’t play well against the Jaguars last week, but they found a way to win. Sam Darnold hasn’t been feeling great in recent weeks. The Titans are playing for the future, but they’ll show up and play well here as well. Expect a close game with the Vikings winning late.
Pick: Vikings 23, Titans 20
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jets looked terrible, one more loss and their season is basically over. The Colts had lost three straight, and moving Joe Flacco didn’t pay off. The Jets looked like they quit last week, but I think they’ll show some fight here. they continue to live.
Pick: Jets 23, Colts 17
Sunday, 4:05pm ET (Fox, fubo free trial)
This will be the second straight road game for the Falcons, who lost to the Saints last week. Denver returned home with two road losses. Kirk Cousins and the offense underperformed last week, but this Denver defense is better than the Saints. That’s important. The Broncos win.
Pick: Broncos 24, Falcons 20
Sunday, 4:05pm ET (Fox, fubo free trial)
The Seahawks earned a bye and the 49ers are coming off a tough win in Tampa. The 49ers are healthier and once again a Super Bowl contender. They defeated the Seahawks in their first meeting a few weeks ago. It would be the same formula here as the 49ers’ offensive role against a so-so Seattle defense.
Pick: 49ers 30, Seahawks 17
Bonus: The SportsLine prediction model is up more than $7,000 on NFL picks since its inception, showing a lot of value for one team covering the spread. Check out SportsLine to see who that club is.
Sunday, 4:25pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the game of the week, with the Bills looking to beat their arch-rival and the Chiefs looking to remain undefeated. The Chiefs haven’t been very good offensively this season, but the Bills and Josh Allen have been good most of the time. This is one of those games where Allen and Buffalo’s offense outperformed the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. The Bills win.
Pick: Bills 27. Chiefs 23
Bonus: The SportsLine projection model also has the Bills to cover as part of a five-game parlay comprised of the week’s strongest spread picks. Check out the other legs of the parlay here.
Sunday, 8:20pm ET (NBC, Fubo Free Trial)
The highlight here will be Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ passing game against the Chargers’ top defense. Burrow can score from anyone, so it will be Justin Herbert who can take on the Bengals defense. That advantage belongs to the Chargers. Herbert wins the gunfight.
Pick: Chargers 31, Bengals 28
Monday, 8:15pm ET (ESPN, try fubo for free)
The Cowboys look cooked especially without Dak Prescott. But the Texans didn’t look good either. It was a two-game losing streak. I think they’ll find a way to win this game, but with the Cowboys showing some pride on Monday night, it’s close.
Designated players: Texans 27, Cowboys 23
